Tories Back in Minority Territory
[OTTAWA – September 19, 2008] A seat projection based on the EKOS rolling poll released today shows the Conservatives sliding back into minority territory, and the Liberals the sole beneficiaries of this decline. Having theoretically picked up 11 seats over the second week of the campaign, the LPC now has a more decisive lead on the NDP and the Bloc (whose fortunes remain relatively unchanged from earlier this week). It also suggests that, if the election was held today, the Green Party would not have a seat – although they are close in two B.C. ridings (less than 5% behind the projected winner).
While the election is still too early to call, this seat projection does provide a glimpse into what Parliament might look like if the vote split this way on election day.
|
|
CPC |
Liberal |
NDP |
BQ |
Green |
TOTAL |
|
CANADA |
151 |
76 |
36 |
45 |
0 |
308 |
|
Atlantic |
13 |
16 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
|
Quebec |
12 |
17 |
1 |
45 |
0 |
75 |
|
Ontario |
51 |
37 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
106 |
|
Manitoba |
10 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
|
Saskatchewan |
12 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
|
Alberta |
28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
|
British Columbia |
24 |
4 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
|
Yukon / Territories |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
A note on our methodology:
This seat projection is based on the results of a recent poll conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Taking our three-day rolling sample (September 16-18) of 3,992 decided voters (including leaning) from across Canada, we have run them through a model that takes into account both the special arithmetic of our first-past-the-post system, and the parties’ historical patterns of support.
Click to download PDF: election-08-seat-projection-4-_sep-19_1