POLITICAL LOGJAM BROKEN

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

Political Logjam Broken; Tories on Cusp of Majority

HIGHLIGHTS

National federal vote intention results from EKOS’ IVR poll: CPC 38%, LPC 26%, NDP 15%, GP 11%, and BQ 10%

Results are very similar to other published polls conducted during the same timeframe

Please note that the methodology and detailed tables of these and other results discussed in this release are provided at the end of this document.

[OTTAWA – September 8, 2008] – Conducted last week (September 2 and 3, 2008), EKOS’ Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) poll finds the Conservatives (38%) already showing a decisive lead over the second place Liberals (26%). The NDP is third with 15% of the vote nationally, followed by the Green Party (11%) and the BQ (10%).

These results are very similar to results from other published polls conducted over a similar timeframe, including results from EKOS hybrid telephone-internet panel, PROBIT^© which had the Conservatives at 37% and the Liberals at 24% in a poll conducted September 2-4, 2008.

Two key conclusions are increasingly clear. First, the logjam characteristic of the political landscape for the last 2 years has broken (largely at the expense of the Liberals). Second, if these results continue, we will see a quite different Parliament resume this fall; that of either a Conservative majority or a strengthened Conservative minority with much more fractured opposition.

Our internal seat projections suggest that, if an election were held tomorrow, the CPC would be on the cusp of a majority. Clearly, there is no election tomorrow and there is lots of room for this outcome to change. The crucial question in the coming days and weeks will be whether voters once more move back from the brink of a CPC majority.

A note on some regional & demographic results

The CPC is running better than the Liberals everywhere except the Atlantic. The LPC is still in reach in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, and are showing somewhat surprising strength in Quebec. Interestingly, if the current race was restricted to Canadians under 45 years of age, it would be a neck and neck horserace. The preference for Conservatives among older Canadians is what is propelling them to their current advantage over the Liberals.

Methodology:

This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

The field dates for this survey are September 2 and September 3, 2008. In total, a random sample of 2,453 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. A sample of this size provides a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as regions).

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Detailed Tables:

Federal Vote Intention By Region

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Federal Vote Intention By Demographics

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Click here to download pdf: Election ’08 – Logjam Broken, Sept8