DAILY TRACKING – FINAL NUMBERS

Canada’s Largest-Ever Political Survey

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – EKOS is proud to present the final tracking poll of the 2008 federal election campaign. With our new IVR methodology, which allows us to gather much larger samples than traditional surveys, we have heard from an unprecedented 41,000 Canadians. In addition, using our unique hybrid online/telephone panel, Probit, we connected with thousands more.

In sum, we conducted what we believe to be the largest political survey project in Canadian history. We want to thank those many Canadians who contributed in this way to helping their fellow citizens understand the dynamics of this election campaign.

This final tracking poll does not show any dramatic change over the Thanksgiving weekend. However there have been some shifts that may prove significant:

In the see-saw battle for Ontario, the Conservatives have regained the slight lead that they had ceded to the Liberals in recent nights;

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois retain a very large lead over the Liberals and Conservatives who are virtually tied;

Liberal and Conservative voters are now about equally committed nationally;

However, New Democrat and Green Party supporters are not as firmly committed as the two front-running parties, and may be subject to further erosion before all the votes are counted.

If there is a wild card it may be Quebec, where more than a fifth of respondents still say they may change their mind before going to vote. There is also considerable softness in the Green Party support, and to a lesser extent the NDP support, which may mean that some of these voters either change their preference or don’t show up to vote at all tomorrow.

However, there are relatively few “undecideds” left and most of those probably will not vote. They do not constitute a cavalry that any party can depend on to save them.

“There have been interesting rhythms to this campaign, and some dramatic events,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “A back-and-forth battle for Ontario, a setback for the Conservatives in Quebec, the emergence of Elizabeth May as a national figure to be reckoned with, and of course the unanticipated international financial crisis. But there have not been the dramatic changes in course that we have seen in some other election campaigns. The parties are still in the same order as they were at the start, and the same is likely to be true of the new Parliament.

In the weeks to come, EKOS will be using the data base we assembled during the election campaign, as well as both the Probit and IVR methodologies to continue our research into the implications of the 2008 election.

Detailed Tables:

Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election By Vote Intention

Q. How certain are you to vote in the federal election this coming Tuesday, October 14^th?

National Federal Vote Intention (A)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14^th?

Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 6.2% of Canadians say they are undecided.

National Federal Vote Intention (B)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14^th?

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this
release (link located at the bottom of page)

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download
PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Second Choice

Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

Tracking Second Choice

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Likely Winner (A)

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?

Tracking Likely Winner

Likely Winner (B)

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 11, 12 and 13.

In total, 2561 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is /- 1. percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download pdf: election-08-daily-tracking-oct13b