The See-Saw Rocks Again; Libs Close Gap to Eight Points
[OTTAWA – October 10, 2008] – After a week in which the Conservatives seemed to be fending off the post-debate, post-market crash surge by the Liberals, the race has narrowed once again going into the final weekend before the election.
Despite the fact that the Tories have never relinquished the lead in this campaign, many Canadians – roughly a quarter – expect the Liberals to win on Tuesday. While most voters – particularly Conservative and Liberal supporters – appear to have firmly made up their minds, there is still a small but significant minority of Canadians, many of them NDP and Green supporters, who say that it is “likely” that they will change their minds before election day.
Most NDP supporters list the Liberals as their second choice, while Green supporters are roughly evenly divided between the NDP and the Liberals.
“Although the objective facts suggest it would be very difficult for the Liberals to pull off a win at this point, there is still room for them to gain support by drawing off New Democrats and Green Party supporters,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “Whenever the Conservatives approach majority territory, as they did mid-week, the Liberals close the gap again.”
Regionally, the biggest factor in closing that gap in the last few days is that the battle for Ontario is once again neck-and-neck. This has happened periodically throughout the campaign, though after each charge to parity with the Conservatives in Ontario, the Liberals then fall back again. They will need to sustain their current strength through voting day if they hope to block a Conservative majority.
The Liberals also appear to be enjoying a modest revival in British Columbia, where they are now pulling abreast of the NDP, though it should be said that in past elections Liberal strength in the opinion polls has frequently failed to materialize in the ballot box.
The NDP has sustained a surprising charge in the Atlantic provinces in recent days. Although the relatively small sample sizes in the region make it more difficult to be confident about patterns of support, this has been sustained for several days now, suggesting that the race is intense in the region, and three-cornered.
Detailed Tables:
Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election
Q. How certain are you to vote in the federal election this coming Tuesday, October 14th?
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Absolutely certain |
82 |
83 |
81 |
83 |
82 |
82 |
76 |
|
Quite certain |
6 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
9 |
|
Not sure |
7 |
6 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
|
Will not vote |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
|
Have already voted |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
Tracking Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election
|
|
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BASE: |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Absolutely certain |
81 |
82 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quite certain |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Not sure |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Will not vote |
5 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Have already voted |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
National Federal Vote Intention (A)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
2592 |
568 |
206 |
176 |
628 |
624 |
390 |
|
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.9 |
4.1 |
6.8 |
7.4 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
5.0 |
|
Conservative |
34 |
36 |
60 |
45 |
35 |
20 |
30 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
24 |
14 |
17 |
35 |
19 |
32 |
|
NDP |
19 |
23 |
16 |
31 |
17 |
14 |
29 |
|
Green |
11 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
13 |
6 |
9 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 1% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.
National Federal Vote Intention (B)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
2592 |
1219 |
1373 |
169 |
807 |
1124 |
492 |
822 |
908 |
862 |
|
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
1.9 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
7.5 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
4.4 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
|
Conservative |
34 |
38 |
31 |
27 |
32 |
35 |
41 |
28 |
34 |
40 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
27 |
25 |
23 |
22 |
28 |
33 |
24 |
24 |
31 |
|
NDP |
19 |
16 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
14 |
22 |
21 |
13 |
|
Green |
11 |
12 |
10 |
14 |
14 |
10 |
6 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
8 |
12 |
15 |
12 |
8 |
6 |
13 |
10 |
7 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
|
2006 Vote |
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
36.3 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
35 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
30.2 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17.5 |
15 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
4.5 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
10.5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
35 |
35 |
39 |
44 |
43 |
38 |
36 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
32 |
38 |
42 |
42 |
40 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
27 |
28 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
26 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
14 |
16 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
60 |
60 |
57 |
57 |
53 |
55 |
51 |
59 |
62 |
63 |
61 |
59 |
63 |
66 |
62 |
60 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
10 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
43 |
43 |
48 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
47 |
49 |
49 |
48 |
50 |
47 |
40 |
44 |
46 |
45 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
16 |
18 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
18 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
30 |
31 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
18 |
18 |
24 |
29 |
25 |
30 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
42 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
33 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
31 |
33 |
31 |
34 |
37 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
31 |
32 |
31 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
12 |
19 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
11 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
27 |
25 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
9 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
35 |
29 |
34 |
40 |
37 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
43 |
42 |
40 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
33 |
32 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
39 |
33 |
33 |
31 |
31 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
37 |
36 |
33 |
24 |
37 |
35 |
33 |
28 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
29 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
24 |
22 |
27 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
81 |
87 |
88 |
80 |
81 |
84 |
30 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
6 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
19 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
13 |
8 |
9 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
51 |
Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
End of Week |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
BASE: Those |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
16 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17 |
14 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
19 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
24 |
23 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
16 |
14 |
18 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
43 |
42 |
46 |
43 |
44 |
48 |
50 |
53 |
50 |
47 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
51 |
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Conservative |
8 |
0 |
13 |
16 |
12 |
6 |
5 |
|
Liberal |
18 |
19 |
0 |
30 |
29 |
24 |
14 |
|
NDP |
18 |
15 |
33 |
0 |
34 |
18 |
6 |
|
Green |
17 |
11 |
26 |
27 |
0 |
18 |
12 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
4 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
5 |
|
No second choice |
35 |
51 |
24 |
21 |
18 |
34 |
58 |
Tracking Second Choice
|
|
End of Week |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
16 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
20 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
15 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No second choice |
35 |
35 |
33 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Likely Winner (A)
Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Conservative |
63 |
63 |
82 |
65 |
68 |
45 |
57 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
24 |
13 |
18 |
25 |
31 |
32 |
|
NDP |
7 |
11 |
5 |
13 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
|
Green |
3 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
0 |
Tracking Likely Winner
|
|
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BASE: |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
65 |
63 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
23 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
7 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likely Winner (B)
Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
63 |
96 |
43 |
49 |
50 |
39 |
56 |
|
|
Liberal |
24 |
2 |
53 |
26 |
24 |
28 |
23 |
|
NDP |
7 |
1 |
3 |
23 |
9 |
4 |
12 |
|
Green |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
14 |
0 |
6 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
4 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
29 |
2 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 8, 9 and 10.
In total, 2974 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/- 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct10