About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

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For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

DAILY TRACKING – OCTOBER 10, 2008

The See-Saw Rocks Again; Libs Close Gap to Eight Points

[OTTAWA – October 10, 2008] – After a week in which the Conservatives seemed to be fending off the post-debate, post-market crash surge by the Liberals, the race has narrowed once again going into the final weekend before the election.

Despite the fact that the Tories have never relinquished the lead in this campaign, many Canadians – roughly a quarter – expect the Liberals to win on Tuesday. While most voters – particularly Conservative and Liberal supporters – appear to have firmly made up their minds, there is still a small but significant minority of Canadians, many of them NDP and Green supporters, who say that it is “likely” that they will change their minds before election day.

Most NDP supporters list the Liberals as their second choice, while Green supporters are roughly evenly divided between the NDP and the Liberals.

“Although the objective facts suggest it would be very difficult for the Liberals to pull off a win at this point, there is still room for them to gain support by drawing off New Democrats and Green Party supporters,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “Whenever the Conservatives approach majority territory, as they did mid-week, the Liberals close the gap again.”

Regionally, the biggest factor in closing that gap in the last few days is that the battle for Ontario is once again neck-and-neck. This has happened periodically throughout the campaign, though after each charge to parity with the Conservatives in Ontario, the Liberals then fall back again. They will need to sustain their current strength through voting day if they hope to block a Conservative majority.

The Liberals also appear to be enjoying a modest revival in British Columbia, where they are now pulling abreast of the NDP, though it should be said that in past elections Liberal strength in the opinion polls has frequently failed to materialize in the ballot box.

The NDP has sustained a surprising charge in the Atlantic provinces in recent days. Although the relatively small sample sizes in the region make it more difficult to be confident about patterns of support, this has been sustained for several days now, suggesting that the race is intense in the region, and three-cornered.

Detailed Tables:

Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election

Q. How certain are you to vote in the federal election this coming Tuesday, October 14th?

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Absolutely certain

82

83

81

83

82

82

76

Quite certain

6

5

6

5

6

5

9

Not sure

7

6

9

9

7

7

10

Will not vote

3

4

3

2

2

2

5

Have already voted

2

2

0

1

2

3

1

Tracking Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election

Week 5

BASE:
Canadians

9

10

Absolutely certain

81

82

Quite certain

5

6

Not sure

6

7

Will not vote

5

3

Have already voted

3

2

National Federal Vote Intention (A)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

2592

568

206

176

628

624

390

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.9

4.1

6.8

7.4

3.9

3.9

5.0

Conservative

34

36

60

45

35

20

30

Liberal

26

24

14

17

35

19

32

NDP

19

23

16

31

17

14

29

Green

11

17

10

7

13

6

9

Bloc Québécois

10

0

0

0

0

40

0

Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 1% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.

National Federal Vote Intention (B)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65

<$40K

$40-80K

$80K

n=

2592

1219

1373

169

807

1124

492

822

908

862

Margin of error (/-)=

1.9

2.8

2.6

7.5

3.4

2.9

4.4

3.4

3.2

3.3

Conservative

34

38

31

27

32

35

41

28

34

40

Liberal

26

27

25

23

22

28

33

24

24

31

NDP

19

16

22

21

20

19

14

22

21

13

Green

11

12

10

14

14

10

6

12

11

9

Bloc Québécois

10

8

12

15

12

8

6

13

10

7

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

2006 Vote

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Conservative

36.3

38

36

36

34

34

34

34

36

36

36

35

33

34

35

36

34

Liberal

30.2

26

26

25

25

27

25

25

24

25

25

25

26

25

24

24

26

NDP

17.5

15

19

18

20

19

20

19

19

19

18

19

19

20

20

19

19

Green

4.5

11

11

13

11

10

11

11

11

10

10

10

12

11

11

11

11

Bloc Québécois

10.5

9

8

8

10

9

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Conservative

35

35

39

44

43

38

36

34

35

35

32

38

42

42

40

36

Liberal

21

19

20

19

20

22

22

24

21

21

21

20

20

19

19

24

NDP

27

28

23

24

26

28

29

30

31

31

32

26

25

26

25

23

Green

14

16

18

13

11

13

14

13

13

13

15

16

13

13

16

17

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Conservative

60

60

57

57

53

55

51

59

62

63

61

59

63

66

62

60

Liberal

17

17

18

17

12

14

17

17

19

17

17

14

12

10

12

14

NDP

10

10

13

14

18

18

19

14

11

12

15

15

13

13

13

16

Green

12

12

13

12

16

13

13

10

9

8

7

11

11

11

12

10

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Conservative

43

43

48

41

42

42

47

49

49

48

50

47

40

44

46

45

Liberal

21

16

18

23

26

26

22

19

18

20

19

20

23

21

18

17

NDP

30

31

25

25

24

24

21

22

23

18

18

24

29

25

30

31

Green

6

8

9

10

8

8

10

10

10

14

13

10

9

9

6

7

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Conservative

42

36

36

32

34

35

36

38

39

38

36

33

35

36

37

35

Liberal

31

33

31

34

37

33

32

30

31

31

32

33

31

32

31

35

NDP

12

19

18

21

18

20

19

20

19

18

19

20

20

19

19

17

Green

13

11

15

13

12

13

12

13

12

12

13

15

14

13

13

13

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Conservative

27

25

24

21

21

20

21

20

20

19

21

17

17

17

18

20

Liberal

21

22

21

18

19

19

19

20

20

20

19

21

21

21

20

19

NDP

9

14

13

14

16

14

13

12

13

13

13

15

15

15

14

14

Green

7

9

8

7

7

8

8

7

6

5

5

5

7

6

8

6

Bloc Québécois

35

29

34

40

37

40

40

40

40

42

43

42

40

41

41

40

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Conservative

33

32

32

37

30

34

33

39

33

33

31

31

30

31

32

30

Liberal

37

36

33

24

37

35

33

28

32

35

36

37

32

30

29

32

NDP

15

24

22

27

25

24

25

21

23

23

23

22

29

30

30

29

Green

13

7

13

11

8

7

9

12

12

9

10

10

9

9

9

9

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Not likely (1-3)

81

87

88

80

81

84

30

Somewhat likely (4)

6

5

4

7

7

4

19

Likely (5-7)

13

8

9

14

11

12

51

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

End of Week

Week 4

Week 5

BASE: Those
planning to vote

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Conservative

11

11

9

8

8

9

9

9

8

8

8

8

9

8

Liberal

16

12

14

15

13

12

12

11

11

12

11

10

11

9

NDP

17

14

18

17

15

11

12

13

16

14

14

12

11

14

Green

19

18

16

13

15

19

24

23

19

17

17

17

14

11

Bloc Québécois

16

14

18

14

13

10

11

10

12

13

13

12

12

12

Undecided

43

42

46

43

44

48

50

53

50

47

43

41

42

51

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Second Choice

Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Conservative

8

0

13

16

12

6

5

Liberal

18

19

0

30

29

24

14

NDP

18

15

33

0

34

18

6

Green

17

11

26

27

0

18

12

Bloc Québécois

4

3

4

6

6

0

5

No second choice

35

51

24

21

18

34

58

Tracking Second Choice

End of Week

Week 5

BASE: Those planning to vote

Wk 2

Wk 3

9

10

Conservative

10

10

9

8

Liberal

16

16

18

18

NDP

20

19

18

18

Green

15

14

17

17

Bloc Québécois

5

6

5

4

No second choice

35

35

33

35

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Likely Winner (A)

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Conservative

63

63

82

65

68

45

57

Liberal

24

24

13

18

25

31

32

NDP

7

11

5

13

4

6

9

Green

3

3

1

4

3

2

2

Bloc Québécois

4

0

0

0

0

15

0

Tracking Likely Winner

Week 5

BASE:
Canadians

9

10

Conservative

65

63

Liberal

23

24

NDP

7

7

Green

2

3

Bloc Québécois

3

4

Likely Winner (B)

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Conservative

63

96

43

49

50

39

56

Liberal

24

2

53

26

24

28

23

NDP

7

1

3

23

9

4

12

Green

3

1

1

1

14

0

6

Bloc Québécois

4

0

1

2

3

29

2

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 8, 9 and 10.

In total, 2974 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/- 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct10

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