Conservatives Headed to Victory; Shifts Continue in Ontario and Quebec
[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to hold a healthy lead over the Liberals as the Thanksgiving Day weekend nears its close and the start of polling is less than a day away.
There is no sign of any significant break from the pattern of the past week. The Conservatives appear to be set to win the election Tuesday, though on the numbers, a majority seems much less likely than another minority.
Conservative supporters do, however, seem more determined than Liberals to go to the polls on Tuesday. And NDP supporters are growing less likely to turn out. Both of these could be significant for deciding the precise level of Liberal success on Tuesday.
The Liberals will likely retain their position as the official opposition – something that seemed threatened at times in this election, mainly by the burgeoning strength of the BQ.
However, there is still some shifting going on among the electorate. The percentage of undecided voters, while fairly small at 8%, has actually inched up in recent days. In Quebec, an astonishing number of respondents – nearly a quarter – say they are “likely” to change their vote intention before going to the polling station.
In the two battleground provinces in which the election will likely be decided – Quebec and Ontario – there continue to be some small but significant shifts.
The Conservatives seem to have reached their floor in Quebec and rebounded somewhat, having reclaimed their second-place spot in the province, albeit far behind the first-place BQ.
In Ontario, the Liberals have been inching upward, and have been marginally ahead of the Conservatives for a couple of days now.
The Liberals also appear to have recovered in British Columbia vis-à-vis the NDP, who have lost their edge, though the Liberals often poll better than they ballot in the province. The Conservatives remain the comfortable frontrunner in the province.
“We are seeing some slight downward pressure on both NDP and Green Party support at the moment as some of their former supporters think about whom they want to win,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “This appears to be behind the Liberals slight improvement. There are still many supporters of these two parties who are considering their options, but time is running out of course.”
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention (A)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
2470 |
590 |
261 |
224 |
487 |
511 |
397 |
|
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
2.0 |
4.0 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
|
Conservative |
34 |
39 |
56 |
43 |
34 |
24 |
23 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
24 |
16 |
18 |
36 |
17 |
34 |
|
NDP |
18 |
22 |
16 |
31 |
17 |
12 |
32 |
|
Green |
11 |
15 |
12 |
7 |
13 |
5 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 8% of Canadians say they are undecided.
National Federal Vote Intention (B)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
2470 |
1163 |
1307 |
158 |
754 |
1040 |
518 |
742 |
910 |
818 |
|
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
2.0 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
7.8 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
|
Conservative |
34 |
40 |
29 |
22 |
32 |
36 |
44 |
30 |
34 |
39 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
26 |
27 |
20 |
24 |
30 |
30 |
23 |
25 |
31 |
|
NDP |
18 |
16 |
21 |
29 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
20 |
22 |
13 |
|
Green |
11 |
9 |
13 |
15 |
12 |
9 |
8 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
9 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
8 |
4 |
15 |
8 |
7 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
|
2006 Vote |
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
|
Conservative |
36.3 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
35 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
|
|
Liberal |
30.2 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
|
|
NDP |
17.5 |
15 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
|
|
Green |
4.5 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
10.5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
Conservative |
35 |
35 |
39 |
44 |
43 |
38 |
36 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
32 |
38 |
42 |
42 |
40 |
36 |
39 |
39 |
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
|
|
NDP |
27 |
28 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
26 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
|
|
Green |
14 |
16 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
15 |
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
Conservative |
60 |
60 |
57 |
57 |
53 |
55 |
51 |
59 |
62 |
63 |
61 |
59 |
63 |
66 |
62 |
60 |
60 |
56 |
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
|
|
NDP |
10 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
12 |
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
Conservative |
43 |
43 |
48 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
47 |
49 |
49 |
48 |
50 |
47 |
40 |
44 |
46 |
45 |
42 |
43 |
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
16 |
18 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
18 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
|
|
NDP |
30 |
31 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
18 |
18 |
24 |
29 |
25 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
|
|
Green |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
Conservative |
42 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
33 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
35 |
35 |
34 |
|
|
Liberal |
31 |
33 |
31 |
34 |
37 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
31 |
32 |
31 |
35 |
36 |
36 |
|
|
NDP |
12 |
19 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
Green |
13 |
11 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
Conservative |
27 |
25 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
24 |
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
|
|
NDP |
9 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
Green |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
35 |
29 |
34 |
40 |
37 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
43 |
42 |
40 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
Conservative |
33 |
32 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
39 |
33 |
33 |
31 |
31 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
30 |
25 |
23 |
|
|
Liberal |
37 |
36 |
33 |
24 |
37 |
35 |
33 |
28 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
29 |
32 |
32 |
34 |
|
|
NDP |
15 |
24 |
22 |
27 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
29 |
33 |
32 |
|
|
Green |
13 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
78 |
88 |
87 |
77 |
73 |
82 |
25 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
6 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
2 |
16 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
15 |
7 |
8 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
59 |
Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
End of Week |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|||||||||||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
|
|
Liberal |
16 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
|
|
NDP |
17 |
14 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
Green |
19 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
24 |
23 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
20 |
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
16 |
14 |
18 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
15 |
16 |
|
|
Undecided |
43 |
42 |
46 |
43 |
44 |
48 |
50 |
53 |
50 |
47 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
51 |
60 |
59 |
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Conservative |
8 |
0 |
12 |
15 |
13 |
8 |
7 |
|
Liberal |
18 |
21 |
0 |
33 |
30 |
17 |
13 |
|
NDP |
20 |
15 |
38 |
0 |
32 |
21 |
8 |
|
Green |
17 |
11 |
25 |
27 |
0 |
22 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
4 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
|
No second choice |
33 |
49 |
22 |
20 |
20 |
32 |
56 |
Tracking Second Choice
|
|
End of Week |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
16 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
20 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
15 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
No second choice |
35 |
35 |
33 |
35 |
35 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Likely Winner (A)
Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Conservative |
62 |
65 |
79 |
67 |
62 |
52 |
59 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
25 |
15 |
18 |
28 |
25 |
30 |
|
NDP |
6 |
7 |
5 |
11 |
7 |
4 |
9 |
|
Green |
3 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
0 |
Tracking Likely Winner
|
|
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
65 |
63 |
61 |
62 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
23 |
24 |
26 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
7 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Likely Winner (B)
Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
62 |
93 |
41 |
51 |
58 |
41 |
57 |
|
|
Liberal |
25 |
4 |
55 |
25 |
25 |
22 |
21 |
|
NDP |
6 |
2 |
2 |
23 |
3 |
1 |
13 |
|
Green |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
0 |
7 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
35 |
2 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 10, 11 and 12.
In total, 2714 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is /- 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct13