Tories Once Again Knocking on the Door of a Majority
[OTTAWA – October 3, 2008] – Based on a large rolling sample of over 3,000 cases, we are seeing some modest shifts in what is a relatively placid political landscape.
The Tories (at 36% nationally) are edging up towards the edge of majority status once again, as they now enjoy a 12 point lead over the moribund LPC (who are currently sitting at 24%). Even though the CPC is once again grafted to the magic 36% support level they secured in the last election, this would generate a stronger seat yield than in 2006 due to the nearly twice as large margin they currently enjoy over the second-place Liberals. While probably still shy of a majority, these numbers will nonetheless produce something tantalizingly close to a majority for the Conservatives.
The NDP continue to run well, but remain just under their orange ceiling of 20 points that seems to frustrate their aspirations to move up to official opposition status.
The BQ are running strongly at 10% nationally, and 40% in Québec.
The Green Party has stalled at 11%, which is a dramatic improvement from 2006, but probably short of providing them any seats.
Although the effects of the debates will not be clearly discernible for at least another 48 hours, there is little to suggest that they will be a significant factor in shaping the final results. They rarely exert a significant influence on the final results of campaign, and 2008 will probably not be an exception.
Despite the relative stability of the national numbers there are some notable regional variations.
British Columbia is tightening up into a 3 way race and the NDP are now running a very close second to the CPC.
The CPC continue to enjoy strong majority support in Alberta, and this stranglehold appears to be extending to Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
The crucial Ontario race once again sees the Tories opening up a modest lead over the Liberals.
Contrary to some recent reports the BQ is doing very well in Quebec and now enjoys a two to one lead over the Tories and LPC. The Conservative decline appears to be a product of unpopular positions on culture and youth crime. In Quebec we have enough cases to see that the debate has done little to halt the BQ rise and may have further weakened Stephen Harper’s prospects there.
On the other hand, the CPC seems to be leading now in the Atlantic.
While there is still some flux in the electorate – with women and Generation X the key groups to watch in the final stages of the campaign – the crucial driver of mobility is now the question of majority or not.
Although not the deal-breaker factor it was in 2006, it remains a potent force. We know from some of our parallel research that a significant fraction of the electorate are following the polls closely, and as the prospects of a Tory majority increase, there is significant portion of voters (about one in five) who say they will switch their vote. The chief beneficiaries of this recoil effect would be the Liberals. For these reasons it appears that the Liberals will most likely retain opposition lead status. The question of majority or minority for the CPC will be the crucial question to watch in the final two weeks of the campaign.
We have been and will continue to release some more in depth analysis of the underlying dynamics of the campaign based on a parallel diagnostic survey of our hybrid internet-phone Probit panel. We will also provide a more formal seat projection later in the day.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
3192 |
481 |
158 |
158 |
1097 |
1188 |
110 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.7 |
4.5 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
9.3 |
|
Conservative |
36 |
34 |
59 |
49 |
38 |
20 |
39 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
24 |
17 |
19 |
30 |
20 |
28 |
|
NDP |
19 |
30 |
14 |
22 |
20 |
12 |
21 |
|
Green |
11 |
13 |
10 |
10 |
13 |
7 |
12 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 8% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
n= |
3192 |
1506 |
1686 |
258 |
1031 |
1270 |
633 |
1067 |
1162 |
963 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
1.7 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
6.1 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
|
Conservative |
36 |
41 |
31 |
22 |
31 |
39 |
45 |
31 |
36 |
41 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
23 |
25 |
19 |
23 |
25 |
30 |
23 |
23 |
27 |
|
NDP |
19 |
16 |
22 |
24 |
23 |
18 |
11 |
22 |
21 |
14 |
|
Green |
11 |
11 |
11 |
23 |
11 |
9 |
6 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
7 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
|
2006 Vote |
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
36.3 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
30.2 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17.5 |
15 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
4.5 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
10.5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
35 |
35 |
39 |
44 |
43 |
38 |
36 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
27 |
28 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
14 |
16 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
60 |
60 |
57 |
57 |
53 |
55 |
51 |
59 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
10 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
43 |
43 |
48 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
47 |
49 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
16 |
18 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
30 |
31 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
42 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
31 |
33 |
31 |
34 |
37 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
12 |
19 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
11 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
27 |
25 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
9 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
35 |
29 |
34 |
40 |
37 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
33 |
32 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
37 |
36 |
33 |
24 |
37 |
35 |
33 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
24 |
22 |
27 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
78 |
87 |
79 |
81 |
70 |
85 |
41 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
7 |
4 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
6 |
11 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
15 |
9 |
12 |
11 |
19 |
10 |
48 |
Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
BASE: |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
16 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17 |
14 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
19 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
16 |
14 |
18 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
43 |
42 |
46 |
43 |
44 |
48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Strategic Vote Switching
Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Yes – would reconsider |
19 |
12 |
21 |
22 |
29 |
15 |
29 |
|
No – would not reconsider |
81 |
88 |
79 |
78 |
71 |
85 |
71 |
Tracking Strategic Vote Switching
|
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
20 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
24 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
31 |
32 |
31 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
14 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
27 |
26 |
27 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strategic Vote Switching
Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Yes – would reconsider |
19 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
20 |
18 |
31 |
|
No – would not reconsider |
81 |
83 |
84 |
85 |
80 |
82 |
69 |
Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?
Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Conservative |
11 |
0 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
15 |
17 |
|
Liberal |
23 |
23 |
0 |
42 |
43 |
18 |
15 |
|
NDP |
15 |
29 |
17 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
17 |
|
Green |
8 |
8 |
13 |
9 |
0 |
4 |
6 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
4 |
|
Do not know |
40 |
38 |
48 |
33 |
33 |
52 |
40 |
Tracking Vote Switching
|
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
24 |
23 |
24 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
14 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
7 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Do not know |
39 |
45 |
41 |
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected September 30, and October 1 and 2.
In total, 3655 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct3