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We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

DAILY TRACKING – OCTOBER 3, 2008

Tories Once Again Knocking on the Door of a Majority

[OTTAWA – October 3, 2008] – Based on a large rolling sample of over 3,000 cases, we are seeing some modest shifts in what is a relatively placid political landscape.

The Tories (at 36% nationally) are edging up towards the edge of majority status once again, as they now enjoy a 12 point lead over the moribund LPC (who are currently sitting at 24%). Even though the CPC is once again grafted to the magic 36% support level they secured in the last election, this would generate a stronger seat yield than in 2006 due to the nearly twice as large margin they currently enjoy over the second-place Liberals. While probably still shy of a majority, these numbers will nonetheless produce something tantalizingly close to a majority for the Conservatives.

The NDP continue to run well, but remain just under their orange ceiling of 20 points that seems to frustrate their aspirations to move up to official opposition status.

The BQ are running strongly at 10% nationally, and 40% in Québec.

The Green Party has stalled at 11%, which is a dramatic improvement from 2006, but probably short of providing them any seats.

Although the effects of the debates will not be clearly discernible for at least another 48 hours, there is little to suggest that they will be a significant factor in shaping the final results. They rarely exert a significant influence on the final results of campaign, and 2008 will probably not be an exception.

Despite the relative stability of the national numbers there are some notable regional variations.

British Columbia is tightening up into a 3 way race and the NDP are now running a very close second to the CPC.

The CPC continue to enjoy strong majority support in Alberta, and this stranglehold appears to be extending to Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The crucial Ontario race once again sees the Tories opening up a modest lead over the Liberals.

Contrary to some recent reports the BQ is doing very well in Quebec and now enjoys a two to one lead over the Tories and LPC. The Conservative decline appears to be a product of unpopular positions on culture and youth crime. In Quebec we have enough cases to see that the debate has done little to halt the BQ rise and may have further weakened Stephen Harper’s prospects there.

On the other hand, the CPC seems to be leading now in the Atlantic.

While there is still some flux in the electorate – with women and Generation X the key groups to watch in the final stages of the campaign – the crucial driver of mobility is now the question of majority or not.

Although not the deal-breaker factor it was in 2006, it remains a potent force. We know from some of our parallel research that a significant fraction of the electorate are following the polls closely, and as the prospects of a Tory majority increase, there is significant portion of voters (about one in five) who say they will switch their vote. The chief beneficiaries of this recoil effect would be the Liberals. For these reasons it appears that the Liberals will most likely retain opposition lead status. The question of majority or minority for the CPC will be the crucial question to watch in the final two weeks of the campaign.

We have been and will continue to release some more in depth analysis of the underlying dynamics of the campaign based on a parallel diagnostic survey of our hybrid internet-phone Probit panel. We will also provide a more formal seat projection later in the day.

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

3192

481

158

158

1097

1188

110

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.7

4.5

7.8

7.8

3.0

2.8

9.3

Conservative

36

34

59

49

38

20

39

Liberal

24

24

17

19

30

20

28

NDP

19

30

14

22

20

12

21

Green

11

13

10

10

13

7

12

Bloc Québécois

10

0

0

0

0

40

0

Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 8% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65

<$40K

$40-80K

$80K

n=

3192

1506

1686

258

1031

1270

633

1067

1162

963

Margin of error (/-)=

1.7

2.5

2.4

6.1

3.0

2.7

3.9

3.0

2.9

3.1

Conservative

36

41

31

22

31

39

45

31

36

41

Liberal

24

23

25

19

23

25

30

23

23

27

NDP

19

16

22

24

23

18

11

22

21

14

Green

11

11

11

23

11

9

6

12

10

10

Bloc Québécois

10

9

11

12

12

9

7

12

10

8

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

2006 Vote

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

Conservative

36.3

38

36

36

34

34

34

34

36

Liberal

30.2

26

26

25

25

27

25

25

24

NDP

17.5

15

19

18

20

19

20

19

19

Green

4.5

11

11

13

11

10

11

11

11

Bloc Québécois

10.5

9

8

8

10

9

10

10

10

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

Conservative

35

35

39

44

43

38

36

34

Liberal

21

19

20

19

20

22

22

24

NDP

27

28

23

24

26

28

29

30

Green

14

16

18

13

11

13

14

13

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

Conservative

60

60

57

57

53

55

51

59

Liberal

17

17

18

17

12

14

17

17

NDP

10

10

13

14

18

18

19

14

Green

12

12

13

12

16

13

13

10

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

Conservative

43

43

48

41

42

42

47

49

Liberal

21

16

18

23

26

26

22

19

NDP

30

31

25

25

24

24

21

22

Green

6

8

9

10

8

8

10

10

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

Conservative

42

36

36

32

34

35

36

38

Liberal

31

33

31

34

37

33

32

30

NDP

12

19

18

21

18

20

19

20

Green

13

11

15

13

12

13

12

13

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

Conservative

27

25

24

21

21

20

21

20

Liberal

21

22

21

18

19

19

19

20

NDP

9

14

13

14

16

14

13

12

Green

7

9

8

7

7

8

8

7

Bloc Québécois

35

29

34

40

37

40

40

40

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

Conservative

33

32

32

37

30

34

33

39

Liberal

37

36

33

24

37

35

33

28

NDP

15

24

22

27

25

24

25

21

Green

13

7

13

11

8

7

9

12

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Not likely (1-3)

78

87

79

81

70

85

41

Somewhat likely (4)

7

4

8

8

11

6

11

Likely (5-7)

15

9

12

11

19

10

48

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

Conservative

11

11

9

8

8

9

Liberal

16

12

14

15

13

12

NDP

17

14

18

17

15

11

Green

19

18

16

13

15

19

Bloc Québécois

16

14

18

14

13

10

Undecided

43

42

46

43

44

48

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Strategic Vote Switching

Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Yes – would reconsider

19

12

21

22

29

15

29

No – would not reconsider

81

88

79

78

71

85

71

Tracking Strategic Vote Switching

Sep.-Oct.

BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention

29

30

1

2

Conservative

11

10

11

12

Liberal

20

21

20

21

NDP

24

22

22

22

Green

31

32

31

29

Bloc Québécois

14

15

16

15

Undecided

27

26

27

29

Strategic Vote Switching

Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Yes – would reconsider

19

17

16

15

20

18

31

No – would not reconsider

81

83

84

85

80

82

69

Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?

Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those who say they would change their vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Conservative

11

0

17

11

7

15

17

Liberal

23

23

0

42

43

18

15

NDP

15

29

17

0

11

11

17

Green

8

8

13

9

0

4

6

Bloc Québécois

3

2

3

5

5

0

4

Do not know

40

38

48

33

33

52

40

Tracking Vote Switching

Sep.-Oct.

BASE: Those who say they would change their vote

29

30

1

2

Conservative

10

10

11

11

Liberal

24

23

24

23

NDP

14

13

14

15

Green

6

6

7

8

Bloc Québécois

7

3

3

3

Do not know

39

45

41

40

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected September 30, and October 1 and 2.

In total, 3655 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct3

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