Race Unshaken By the Debates
[OTTAWA – October 5, 2008] – The leaders’ debates this past week appear to have failed to shake up the election race, despite what some regarded as effective performances by opposition party leaders.
The Conservatives continue to track towards victory, with a potential increase in seats, but at the moment likely short of a majority. The Liberals remain well behind.
More and more voters say they have made up their minds, and the supporters for every party except the Greens are getting firmer in their resolution. Still, the Conservatives may have to contend with a Liberal rally at the end of the race if opposition supporters become worried that Stephen Harper could win a majority.
“Almost a quarter of Ontarians say they might reconsider their voting plans if they believed the Tories were going to win a majority,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates. “Meanwhile, nearly a third of Green supporters continue to openly consider their options. If there were an ‘anyone but Conservatives’ stampede at the end, the Liberals would be the beneficiary. But so far, no such stampede is in progress.”
There has been some movement in some provinces in recent days, even though the national picture remains largely unchanged from before the leaders’ debates. The NDP continues to grow in strength in British Columbia, and the Conservatives are slipping away from their commanding lead of the early campaign.
In Ontario, the race continues to see-saw, with the Liberals pulling into close contention some days, and then dropping back again.
In Quebec, the Liberals are also edging ahead of the Conservatives, depending on the day of the week, but both parties are well behind the Bloc Quebecois, whose strength seems to have grown since last weeks’ debates.
“Every party, except the BQ, now seems set to fall short of its pre-election aims,” said Graves. “There is a little room for change in the days that remain, but that room is shrinking by the hour.”
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
2318 |
394 |
95 |
106 |
685 |
720 |
318 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
2.0 |
4.9 |
10.0 |
9.5 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
5.5 |
|
Conservative |
35 |
32 |
61 |
50 |
36 |
21 |
31 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
21 |
17 |
19 |
32 |
19 |
36 |
|
NDP |
19 |
32 |
15 |
18 |
19 |
13 |
23 |
|
Green |
10 |
15 |
7 |
13 |
13 |
5 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
43 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
n= |
2318 |
1094 |
1224 |
178 |
787 |
929 |
424 |
771 |
836 |
711 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
2.0 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
7.3 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
4.8 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
|
Conservative |
35 |
41 |
28 |
20 |
32 |
35 |
47 |
30 |
34 |
40 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
24 |
27 |
21 |
23 |
28 |
26 |
23 |
26 |
28 |
|
NDP |
19 |
16 |
23 |
28 |
19 |
20 |
14 |
23 |
19 |
15 |
|
Green |
10 |
9 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
9 |
6 |
11 |
9 |
11 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
10 |
11 |
17 |
13 |
9 |
6 |
13 |
12 |
7 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
|
2006 Vote |
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
36.3 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
30.2 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17.5 |
15 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
4.5 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
10.5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
35 |
35 |
39 |
44 |
43 |
38 |
36 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
27 |
28 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
14 |
16 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
60 |
60 |
57 |
57 |
53 |
55 |
51 |
59 |
62 |
63 |
61 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
10 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
43 |
43 |
48 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
47 |
49 |
49 |
48 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
16 |
18 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
30 |
31 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
18 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
42 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
31 |
33 |
31 |
34 |
37 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
12 |
19 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
11 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
27 |
25 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
9 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
35 |
29 |
34 |
40 |
37 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
33 |
32 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
39 |
33 |
33 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
37 |
36 |
33 |
24 |
37 |
35 |
33 |
28 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
24 |
22 |
27 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
79 |
88 |
85 |
77 |
71 |
83 |
39 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
6 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
5 |
11 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
15 |
8 |
11 |
16 |
19 |
12 |
50 |
Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
BASE: |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
16 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17 |
14 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
19 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
24 |
23 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
16 |
14 |
18 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
43 |
42 |
46 |
43 |
44 |
48 |
50 |
53 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Strategic Vote Switching
Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Yes – would reconsider |
19 |
13 |
19 |
25 |
28 |
10 |
32 |
|
No – would not reconsider |
81 |
87 |
81 |
75 |
72 |
90 |
68 |
Tracking Strategic Vote Switching
|
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
20 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
24 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
22 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
31 |
32 |
31 |
29 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
14 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
27 |
26 |
27 |
29 |
33 |
32 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strategic Vote Switching
Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Yes – would reconsider |
19 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
23 |
15 |
22 |
|
No – would not reconsider |
81 |
83 |
83 |
85 |
77 |
85 |
78 |
Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?
Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Conservative |
10 |
0 |
11 |
23 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
23 |
0 |
34 |
45 |
35 |
24 |
|
NDP |
12 |
18 |
13 |
0 |
22 |
12 |
11 |
|
Green |
8 |
12 |
11 |
5 |
0 |
4 |
7 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
|
Do not know |
44 |
44 |
63 |
34 |
25 |
43 |
46 |
Tracking Vote Switching
|
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
24 |
23 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
14 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
7 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Do not know |
39 |
45 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
44 |
44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 3, 4 and 5.
In total, 2624 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/-1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct51