Liberals Narrow Gap as Tories Ebb in Ontario & Falter in Quebec
[OTTAWA – October 6, 2008] – The Liberals have narrowed the gap with the Conservatives nationally on the strength of a resurgence in Ontario and east, and the Conservatives continuing weakness in Quebec. The latest EKOS tracking poll shows the Liberals seven percentage points behind the Conservatives nationally – the narrowest gap yet in our election polling.
“The Conservatives appear to have fallen right out of the race in Quebec, said EKOS President Frank Graves. “They can no longer be confident that they can hang on to all the gains they made there in the 2006 election.”
Meanwhile, there has been a see-saw battle in Ontario in the last ten days, with the Liberals pulling abreast of the Conservatives, then falling back again. “They are now in a statistical dead heat,” he said. “Interestingly the Liberals have accomplished this feat even though the Greens and New Democrats are also running quite strongly in the province – at 15% and 20% respectively.”
The Liberals may also be establishing themselves in second place in Quebec and in the lead in the Atlantic provinces, though the number of respondents in Atlantic Canada is small, and results there must be treated with caution.
“What we have here potentially is a re-emergence of the stark East-West divide in Canadian politics, with the Conservatives driven back on their Western base.”
“Some traditional patterns in the support of the two leading parties have also begun to re-assert themselves,” said Graves. “The Conservatives now have a commanding lead over all the other parties among men, but are barely ahead of the Liberals among women.”
Despite these recent shifts, which could make the difference between majority and minority for the Conservatives, most voters say they have their minds made up. Green Party voters are somewhat less firm in their intentions that supporters of the other parties, but even they are noticeably more determined in their choice than they were just a few days ago.
Roughly one fifth of Canadians say they might reconsider their vote intention if they thought a Tory majority seemed certain, which would probably benefit the Liberals nationally, though perhaps also the NDP in areas such as British Columbia where they are the leading alternative to the government.
However, the temptation to vote tactically to block a Conservative majority may wane if the polls continue to show the tightening in the race that has occurred over the last few days. Moreover some voters may drift back to the Tories if they think they are not going to win a majority.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
2314 |
292 |
119 |
123 |
791 |
798 |
191 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
2.0 |
5.7 |
9.0 |
8.8 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
7.1 |
|
Conservative |
33 |
38 |
59 |
47 |
33 |
17 |
31 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
20 |
14 |
20 |
33 |
21 |
37 |
|
NDP |
19 |
26 |
15 |
24 |
20 |
15 |
22 |
|
Green |
12 |
16 |
11 |
10 |
15 |
5 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
n= |
2314 |
1093 |
1221 |
182 |
784 |
922 |
426 |
743 |
843 |
728 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
2.0 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
7.3 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
4.7 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
|
Conservative |
33 |
38 |
29 |
21 |
29 |
36 |
42 |
32 |
31 |
36 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
24 |
27 |
19 |
24 |
28 |
27 |
21 |
26 |
30 |
|
NDP |
19 |
17 |
22 |
29 |
20 |
18 |
16 |
20 |
22 |
16 |
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
11 |
18 |
14 |
9 |
8 |
14 |
10 |
11 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
9 |
7 |
13 |
12 |
6 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
|
2006 Vote |
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
36.3 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
35 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
30.2 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17.5 |
15 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
4.5 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
10.5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
35 |
35 |
39 |
44 |
43 |
38 |
36 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
32 |
38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
27 |
28 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
14 |
16 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
60 |
60 |
57 |
57 |
53 |
55 |
51 |
59 |
62 |
63 |
61 |
59 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
10 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
43 |
43 |
48 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
47 |
49 |
49 |
48 |
50 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
16 |
18 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
30 |
31 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
18 |
18 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
42 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
31 |
33 |
31 |
34 |
37 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
12 |
19 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
11 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
27 |
25 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
9 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
35 |
29 |
34 |
40 |
37 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
43 |
42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
33 |
32 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
39 |
33 |
33 |
31 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
37 |
36 |
33 |
24 |
37 |
35 |
33 |
28 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
24 |
22 |
27 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
79 |
88 |
83 |
78 |
74 |
82 |
41 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
6 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
12 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
14 |
8 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
13 |
47 |
Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
End of Week Results |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
BASE: |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
Wk 4 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Liberal |
16 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
NDP |
17 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Green |
19 |
18 |
24 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Bloc Québécois |
16 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Undecided |
43 |
42 |
50 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Strategic Vote Switching
Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Yes – would reconsider |
21 |
14 |
21 |
24 |
30 |
13 |
39 |
|
No – would not reconsider |
79 |
86 |
79 |
76 |
70 |
87 |
61 |
Tracking Strategic Vote Switching
|
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
20 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
24 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
22 |
25 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
31 |
32 |
31 |
29 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
14 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
27 |
26 |
27 |
29 |
33 |
32 |
32 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
Strategic Vote Switching
Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Yes – would reconsider |
21 |
22 |
16 |
24 |
25 |
16 |
22 |
|
No – would not reconsider |
79 |
78 |
84 |
76 |
75 |
84 |
78 |
Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?
Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Conservative |
11 |
0 |
13 |
17 |
11 |
19 |
11 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
23 |
0 |
44 |
33 |
26 |
34 |
|
NDP |
14 |
21 |
19 |
0 |
24 |
17 |
4 |
|
Green |
6 |
6 |
9 |
6 |
0 |
9 |
4 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
2 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
|
Do not know |
42 |
49 |
59 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
41 |
Tracking Vote Switching
|
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
24 |
23 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
14 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
7 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Do not know |
39 |
45 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
44 |
44 |
42 |
|
|
|
|
|
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 4, 5 and 6.
In total, 2606 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/-1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct6