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We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

DAILY TRACKING – OCTOBER 8, 2008

Tories Fighting Regional Battles But Winning Nationally

[OTTAWA – October 8, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to maintain a significant lead nationally over all the opposition parties, according to the latest EKOS tracking poll, and have a significant lead with some of the most important groups of voters, but they are fighting a series of very different regional battles.

“Across the country, the Conservatives hold significant leads among many of the demographic groups most likely to vote, such as seniors, men and baby-boomers,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “There is nothing in this picture that suggests that the Conservatives have been knocked off track from winning government again, by either the leaders’ debates or the international financial crisis.”

“We see no sign of a Tory collapse or a Liberal surge. It does seem that some voters have been drifting between parties in recent days, perhaps because none of them inspires much enthusiasm with the electorate,” he said. “There is some tentativeness and instability, and the gap with the Liberals was narrowing for a few days but the Tory lead, if anything is widening now, not shrinking.”

In British Columbia, the Conservatives seem to be regaining some of their momentum of earlier in the campaign, re-establishing a significant lead over their closest rival, the New Democrats.

In the Prairie provinces they are clearly ahead, though challenged in Manitoba and Saskatchewan by both the NDP and the Liberals.

In Ontario, meanwhile, the Conservatives are struggling to shake off a determined Liberal challenge and a significant NDP presence. However, they maintain a narrow lead.

In Quebec, Conservative support continues to slide and the Liberals are now emerging as principal federalist alternative to the Bloc Quebecois.

In the Atlantic provinces, meanwhile, there appears to be a three-way battle, including the Liberals and the New Democrats, though as always, relatively small case-numbers.

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

3178

611

166

132

1008

1004

257

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.7

4.0

7.6

8.5

3.1

3.1

6.1

Conservative

35

42

66

44

36

17

31

Liberal

24

19

10

21

32

21

30

NDP

20

26

13

25

19

15

30

Green

11

13

11

9

13

6

9

Bloc Québécois

10

0

0

0

0

41

0

Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65

<$40K

$40-80K

$80K

n=

3178

1493

1685

239

1029

1278

632

1085

1151

942

Margin of error (/-)=

1.7

2.5

2.4

6.3

3.0

2.7

3.9

3.0

2.9

3.2

Conservative

35

40

31

25

31

38

45

34

35

37

Liberal

24

24

25

18

23

24

29

20

24

30

NDP

20

17

22

24

21

18

16

23

20

15

Green

11

11

11

19

12

11

5

11

10

12

Bloc Québécois

10

9

11

14

12

9

5

13

10

7

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

2006 Vote

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

36.3

38

36

36

34

34

34

34

36

36

36

35

33

34

35

Liberal

30.2

26

26

25

25

27

25

25

24

25

25

25

26

25

24

NDP

17.5

15

19

18

20

19

20

19

19

19

18

19

19

20

20

Green

4.5

11

11

13

11

10

11

11

11

10

10

10

12

11

11

Bloc Québécois

10.5

9

8

8

10

9

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

35

35

39

44

43

38

36

34

35

35

32

38

42

42

Liberal

21

19

20

19

20

22

22

24

21

21

21

20

20

19

NDP

27

28

23

24

26

28

29

30

31

31

32

26

25

26

Green

14

16

18

13

11

13

14

13

13

13

15

16

13

13

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

60

60

57

57

53

55

51

59

62

63

61

59

63

66

Liberal

17

17

18

17

12

14

17

17

19

17

17

14

12

10

NDP

10

10

13

14

18

18

19

14

11

12

15

15

13

13

Green

12

12

13

12

16

13

13

10

9

8

7

11

11

11

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

43

43

48

41

42

42

47

49

49

48

50

47

40

44

Liberal

21

16

18

23

26

26

22

19

18

20

19

20

23

21

NDP

30

31

25

25

24

24

21

22

23

18

18

24

29

25

Green

6

8

9

10

8

8

10

10

10

14

13

10

9

9

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

42

36

36

32

34

35

36

38

39

38

36

33

35

36

Liberal

31

33

31

34

37

33

32

30

31

31

32

33

31

32

NDP

12

19

18

21

18

20

19

20

19

18

19

20

20

19

Green

13

11

15

13

12

13

12

13

12

12

13

15

14

13

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

27

25

24

21

21

20

21

20

20

19

21

17

17

17

Liberal

21

22

21

18

19

19

19

20

20

20

19

21

21

21

NDP

9

14

13

14

16

14

13

12

13

13

13

15

15

15

Green

7

9

8

7

7

8

8

7

6

5

5

5

7

6

Bloc Québécois

35

29

34

40

37

40

40

40

40

42

43

42

40

41

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

33

32

32

37

30

34

33

39

33

33

31

31

30

31

Liberal

37

36

33

24

37

35

33

28

32

35

36

37

32

30

NDP

15

24

22

27

25

24

25

21

23

23

23

22

29

30

Green

13

7

13

11

8

7

9

12

12

9

10

10

9

9

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Not likely (1-3)

80

89

84

80

73

85

41

Somewhat likely (4)

6

3

6

8

10

3

18

Likely (5-7)

13

8

10

12

17

12

41

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

End of Week

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

11

11

9

8

8

9

9

9

8

8

8

8

Liberal

16

12

14

15

13

12

12

11

11

12

11

10

NDP

17

14

18

17

15

11

12

13

16

14

14

12

Green

19

18

16

13

15

19

24

23

19

17

17

17

Bloc Québécois

16

14

18

14

13

10

11

10

12

13

13

12

Undecided

43

42

46

43

44

48

50

53

50

47

43

41

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Strategic Vote Switching

Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Yes – would reconsider

20

13

22

22

31

15

34

No – would not reconsider

80

87

78

78

69

85

66

Tracking Strategic Vote Switching

Sep.-Oct.

BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

11

10

11

12

13

13

13

14

12

13

Liberal

20

21

20

21

20

19

19

21

23

22

NDP

24

22

22

22

23

22

25

24

25

22

Green

31

32

31

29

24

26

28

30

29

31

Bloc Québécois

14

15

16

15

10

13

10

13

15

15

Undecided

27

26

27

29

33

32

32

39

35

34

Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?

Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those who say they would change their vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Conservative

7

0

11

9

6

9

11

Liberal

23

25

0

40

32

27

22

NDP

18

25

27

0

25

10

11

Green

8

11

8

9

0

9

8

Bloc Québécois

2

1

1

4

3

0

2

Do not know

42

38

52

37

33

44

46

Tracking Vote Switching

Sep.-Oct.

BASE: Those who say they would change their vote

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Conservative

10

10

11

11

10

9

10

11

10

7

Liberal

24

23

24

23

22

22

24

24

23

23

NDP

14

13

14

15

14

13

12

14

16

18

Green

6

6

7

8

9

9

8

6

7

8

Bloc Québécois

7

3

3

3

4

3

3

2

2

2

Do not know

39

45

41

40

40

44

44

42

41

42

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 6, 7 and 8.

In total, 3599 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/- 1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct8

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