Conservative Lead Grows as Canadians Expect 2nd Harper Government
[OTTAWA – October 9, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to widen their lead over the second place Liberals in the latest EKOS tracking poll, and each day that passes removes a little more potential for fundamental change to the basic pattern of this election, which has held with some ups and downs since the first week.
Almost a quarter of Canadians now believe the Liberals are likely to win the election, which is much higher than earlier in the campaign – likely a reflection of media coverage suggesting they have been doing better in recent days.
“The perception that the Liberals could win does not seem to have created a bandwagon, however,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “It may even have hurt them somewhat by putting a spotlight on Stéphane Dion instead of Stephen Harper, when the electorate is not enamoured of either.”
Still, the vast majority of Canadians – 65% – now say that they believe the Conservatives will win, regardless of their own voting intentions.
The room for a tactical surge to stop the Conservatives is clearly shrinking. Roughly four-fifths of Canadians are now firmly committed to their vote choice – closer to nine-tenths in the case of Conservative supporters.
Even Green Party supporters, who had been much more likely to consider changing their vote earlier in the campaign, now seem to be firming up their intention and plan to stick with the Greens.
And if voters were to start moving, it is not clear that they would aggregate behind any single opposition party: in fact the NDP, Liberals and Greens are now about equal as the second choice party among Canadians.
“The Conservatives have survived most of the challenges to their continuing hold on power,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “A Tory victory now seems quite likely if not yet certain.”
In Ontario, where there has been a see-saw battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives for several weeks, the Liberals are now slipping back and the Conservatives have reclaimed a clear lead. In British Columbia, too, they have re-asserted themselves as the dominant party.
Only in Quebec does their campaign continue to languish badly, well behind the front-running Bloc Québécois. In fact the Liberals are rising as a “second choice” in the province, suggesting they might still have some room for growth there.
Although there has been a sour mood in this election, noted by many commentators, 78% of Canadians say that they consider this election to be more important than the 2006 election. What is most notable is that Conservatives and NDP supporters are more likely to take this view than the supporters of other parties, suggesting they may be more to get out and vote on election day. Green Party supporters are least likely to see this election as especially important.
Detailed Tables:
Intention to Vote
Q. How certain are you to vote in the federal election this coming Tuesday, October 14th?
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Absolutely certain |
81 |
79 |
80 |
86 |
84 |
79 |
74 |
|
Quite certain |
5 |
4 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
8 |
|
Not sure |
6 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
|
Will not vote |
5 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
9 |
|
Have already voted (AP) |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
National Federal Vote Intention (A)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
2934 |
648 |
199 |
166 |
795 |
765 |
361 |
|
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.8 |
3.8 |
6.9 |
7.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
5.2 |
|
Conservative |
36 |
40 |
62 |
46 |
37 |
18 |
32 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
19 |
12 |
18 |
31 |
20 |
29 |
|
NDP |
19 |
25 |
13 |
30 |
19 |
14 |
30 |
|
Green |
11 |
16 |
12 |
6 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 3% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.
National Federal Vote Intention (B)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
2934 |
1369 |
1565 |
213 |
903 |
1256 |
562 |
963 |
1043 |
928 |
|
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
1.8 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
6.7 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
|
Conservative |
36 |
39 |
32 |
25 |
33 |
37 |
44 |
31 |
37 |
40 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
24 |
24 |
20 |
21 |
25 |
29 |
20 |
23 |
29 |
|
NDP |
19 |
16 |
23 |
21 |
22 |
18 |
15 |
24 |
20 |
14 |
|
Green |
11 |
12 |
11 |
18 |
12 |
11 |
6 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
9 |
11 |
15 |
12 |
9 |
6 |
13 |
10 |
6 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
|
2006 Vote |
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
36.3 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
35 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
30.2 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17.5 |
15 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
4.5 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
10.5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
35 |
35 |
39 |
44 |
43 |
38 |
36 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
32 |
38 |
42 |
42 |
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
27 |
28 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
26 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
14 |
16 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
60 |
60 |
57 |
57 |
53 |
55 |
51 |
59 |
62 |
63 |
61 |
59 |
63 |
66 |
62 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
10 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
43 |
43 |
48 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
47 |
49 |
49 |
48 |
50 |
47 |
40 |
44 |
46 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
16 |
18 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
30 |
31 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
18 |
18 |
24 |
29 |
25 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
42 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
33 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
31 |
33 |
31 |
34 |
37 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
31 |
32 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
12 |
19 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
11 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
27 |
25 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
9 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
35 |
29 |
34 |
40 |
37 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
43 |
42 |
40 |
41 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
33 |
32 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
39 |
33 |
33 |
31 |
31 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
37 |
36 |
33 |
24 |
37 |
35 |
33 |
28 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
24 |
22 |
27 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
81 |
87 |
85 |
80 |
78 |
84 |
41 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
6 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
17 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
13 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
42 |
Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
End of Week |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Liberal |
16 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
NDP |
17 |
14 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Green |
19 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
24 |
23 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Bloc Québécois |
16 |
14 |
18 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Undecided |
43 |
42 |
46 |
43 |
44 |
48 |
50 |
53 |
50 |
47 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
|
|
|
|
||||
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Conservative |
9 |
0 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
6 |
3 |
|
Liberal |
18 |
20 |
0 |
29 |
27 |
30 |
8 |
|
NDP |
18 |
19 |
30 |
0 |
33 |
13 |
8 |
|
Green |
17 |
10 |
27 |
29 |
0 |
17 |
14 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
9 |
0 |
6 |
|
No second choice |
33 |
47 |
26 |
21 |
15 |
34 |
60 |
Tracking Second Choice
|
|
End of Week |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
Oct. 9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
16 |
16 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
20 |
19 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
15 |
14 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No second choice |
35 |
35 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Likely Winner (A)
Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Conservative |
65 |
64 |
82 |
66 |
72 |
46 |
54 |
|
Liberal |
23 |
23 |
12 |
18 |
22 |
32 |
34 |
|
NDP |
7 |
10 |
5 |
14 |
4 |
6 |
10 |
|
Green |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
0 |
Likely Winner (B)
Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Conservative |
65 |
96 |
48 |
49 |
53 |
37 |
55 |
|
Liberal |
23 |
3 |
48 |
25 |
23 |
34 |
24 |
|
NDP |
7 |
0 |
2 |
22 |
10 |
3 |
15 |
|
Green |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
0 |
4 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
3 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
26 |
3 |
Perceived Importance of this Election (A)
Q. Compared to the previous election, how important is the outcome of this election to the future of the country?
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Not as important |
14 |
17 |
16 |
11 |
11 |
16 |
12 |
|
Just as important |
8 |
7 |
6 |
3 |
8 |
12 |
12 |
|
More important |
78 |
76 |
78 |
85 |
81 |
72 |
76 |
Perceived Importance of this Election (B)
Q. Compared to the previous election, how important is the outcome of this election to the future of the country?
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
Not as important |
14 |
17 |
10 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
20 |
10 |
13 |
|
Just as important |
8 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
|
More important |
78 |
74 |
82 |
78 |
77 |
80 |
76 |
73 |
81 |
79 |
Perceived Importance of this Election (C)
Q. Compared to the previous election, how important is the outcome of this election to the future of the country?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those planning to vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
14 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
|
|
Just as important |
8 |
6 |
10 |
7 |
13 |
7 |
13 |
|
More important |
78 |
82 |
78 |
83 |
69 |
76 |
70 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 7, 8 and 9.
In total, 3378 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/- 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
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