ELECTION OUTCOME EXPECTATIONS

Canadians Prepare for A Conservative Government

[OTTAWA – October 2, 2008] – More than three-quarters of Canadians say they expect the Conservatives to win the election on October 14, but whether they expect the Conservatives to get a majority or minority has a lot to do with whether they like the Conservatives, or prefer another party.

Fifty-two percent of Conservative supporters expect a majority government, compared with 42% who expect a minority. But Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc Québécois voters all say they expect a minority government after the election by substantial margins. That may make it tougher for the Liberals and the NDP to stampede voters their way in an attempt to stop the Tories from winning the majority they seek.

Looking across supporters of all the parties, most Canadians – 58% — expect a minority government. That said, there has been a modest rise in acceptance of a Conservative majority outcome since the last election.

Commentators sometimes talk as if everyone who doesn’t vote Conservative wants them to lose. Not so. When our respondents were asked to choose among four options — Tory majority, Tory minority, Liberal minority or Liberal majority – almost half (49%) preferred a Conservative government of some kind, compared with just 42% who preferred a Liberal government.

But paradoxically, when asked what the worst outcome of an election would be, nearly half again (47%) said that would be a majority Tory government. This negativity is very strongly pronounced in all camps save Conservative supporters. This may help explain the see-saw pattern of the campaign to date, with Canadians reining in the Conservatives when they seem to be headed for a majority.

Interestingly, Liberal voters are not universally enthusiastic about a Liberal majority – as distant a prospect as that may seem. Barely half (49%) preferred a Liberal majority, compared with 36% who preferred a Liberal minority. More than one in ten Liberal voters actually preferred a Conservative government of some kind.

Detailed Tables:

Perceived Likely Winner

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win?

Perceived Likely Winner – Tracking From Previous Elections

Perceived Likely Winner

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win?

Majority or Minority?

Q. Do you think it will be a minority or a majority government?

Minority or Majority? – Election 2004, 2006 & 2008

Majority or Minority?

Q. Do you think it will be a minority or a majority government?

Preferred Outcome

Q. Which of the following outcomes do you think would be BEST?

Preferred Outcome – Election 2004, 2006 & 2008

Preferred Outcome

Q. Which of the following outcomes do you think would be BEST?

Least Preferred Outcome

Q. Which of the following outcomes do you think would be the WORST?

Least Preferred Outcome

Q. Which of the following outcomes do you think would be the WORST?

Methodology:

Today’s poll was conducted using EKOS’ unique hybrid internet-telephone research panel, Probit©. This panel is randomly recruited from the general population, meaning that, the only way to be included in Probit© is through random selection. Unlike opt-in internet-only research panels, Probit© supports confidence intervals and error testing.

The field dates for this survey are September 29 to October 1, 2008. In total, a random sample of 1496 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. A sample of this size provides a margin of error of /- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as regions).

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

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