Television Still King
[OTTAWA – October 7, 2008] – For all the talk of new media and the high-impact role they are playing in this political campaign, the fact is television is king, as it has been for nearly half a century.
More than a third of Canadians say they have relied extensively on television coverage in this campaign – nearly triple the number who say they have relied extensively on the internet for their political information.
“Ironically, the impression that many of us have that the internet has been such a force in this election comes from the traditional media lavishing attention on what happens there,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “Whether it is the puffin poop gaffe, the Liberal candidate with a conspiracy theory about September 11, or the NDP candidate with a mouth full of reefers, these stories start on the internet, but gain currency by their coverage in traditional television, print and radio outlets.”
This latest EKOS poll was conducted using the Probit technology, which combines an internet panel with telephone polling to ensure a broad sample of Canadian public opinion.
It shows that after television, the ageing warhorse of news – newspapers – are the second-most widely used source of election information, followed by radio, and then online media.
In fact, slightly more Canadians say they relied on last week’s televised debates for their election information than on the internet.
Most Canadians claim they watched all or part of the debates – claims that may have to be regarded with a little suspicion, since who wants to say they aren’t paying attention?
Among those who say they watched, Stéphane Dion was the clear winner in the French debate and Stephen Harper the clear loser.
In the English debate, there was no clear winner, though Harper and Green Party leader Elizabeth May did better than the others. On the other hand Harper, along with Dion, was also most likely to be regarded as the loser.
There is little sign directly from those surveyed that the debates swayed many votes, though the Liberals seem to have done slightly better than the other parties out of them.
Still, the debates, along with the current international financial crisis, may have loosened up the electorate to the somewhat tighter race we have seen in recent days.
Detailed Tables:
Information Consulted During the Election Campaign
Q. There are a number of ways that people can inform themselves about the upcoming election. Up to this point, how much have you relied on each of the following sources?
BASE: Canadians |
Not at all |
Somewhat |
Extensively |
Television news programs |
17 |
48 |
34 |
Traditional print media |
25 |
49 |
25 |
Radio |
39 |
44 |
16 |
The leader’s debates |
35 |
48 |
15 |
Online media sources |
46 |
39 |
13 |
Friends and family |
44 |
46 |
8 |
Interaction with local candidates |
69 |
24 |
5 |
Paid advertisements |
62 |
34 |
3 |
Blogs |
85 |
12 |
2 |
Attention to the Debates (a)
Q. Did you watch or listen to any of the [English language / French language] national leader’s debates?
BASE: Canadians |
Canada |
BC |
AB |
MB/SK |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|||||||
Debate watched= |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
Yes |
60 |
32 |
73 |
24 |
67 |
21 |
64 |
16 |
69 |
25 |
37 |
61 |
59 |
22 |
No |
39 |
68 |
26 |
76 |
33 |
79 |
36 |
84 |
31 |
75 |
63 |
39 |
40 |
77 |
Attention to the Debates (B)
Q. Did you watch or listen to all of it, most of it, or just some of it?
BASE: Those who tuned into the leader’s debates |
Canada |
BC |
AB |
MB/SK |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|||||||
Debate watched= |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
All of it |
25 |
36 |
24 |
17 |
18 |
26 |
26 |
35 |
26 |
20 |
28 |
53 |
19 |
30 |
Most of it |
36 |
24 |
22 |
17 |
46 |
19 |
35 |
21 |
33 |
21 |
48 |
28 |
39 |
27 |
Some of it |
40 |
40 |
53 |
66 |
36 |
55 |
39 |
44 |
41 |
59 |
24 |
19 |
42 |
43 |
Perceived Winner
Q. Who do you think WON the leader’s debate?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||||||
BASE: Canadians |
Canada |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
||||||
Debate watched= |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
Stephen Harper |
23 |
7 |
56 |
27 |
3 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
7 |
1 |
Stephane Dion |
10 |
35 |
1 |
10 |
25 |
63 |
5 |
40 |
5 |
32 |
22 |
26 |
Jack Layton |
15 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
38 |
12 |
7 |
3 |
40 |
4 |
Gilles Duceppe |
2 |
20 |
0 |
18 |
2 |
10 |
3 |
17 |
2 |
26 |
12 |
41 |
Elizabeth May |
18 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
25 |
1 |
20 |
0 |
43 |
17 |
2 |
0 |
Nobody |
26 |
22 |
22 |
29 |
32 |
17 |
22 |
17 |
28 |
8 |
17 |
28 |
Do not know/no response |
6 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
13 |
5 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
Perceived Loser
Q. Who do you think LOST the leader’s debate?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||||||
BASE: Canadians |
Canada |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
||||||
Debate watched= |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
EN |
FR |
Stephen Harper |
25 |
41 |
3 |
2 |
41 |
63 |
33 |
48 |
36 |
67 |
44 |
54 |
Stephane Dion |
25 |
8 |
45 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
26 |
1 |
21 |
0 |
29 |
12 |
Jack Layton |
6 |
4 |
10 |
6 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
Gilles Duceppe |
10 |
3 |
8 |
9 |
12 |
3 |
12 |
1 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Elizabeth May |
5 |
17 |
10 |
34 |
1 |
9 |
2 |
15 |
0 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
Nobody |
21 |
18 |
17 |
21 |
30 |
15 |
17 |
23 |
17 |
6 |
6 |
17 |
Do not know/no response |
8 |
9 |
8 |
10 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
12 |
5 |
22 |
8 |
2 |
Impact On Vote Intention (a)
Q. Generally speaking, did the leader’s performance in the debates make you reconsider your vote intention?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Yes |
18 |
11 |
20 |
21 |
32 |
16 |
No |
75 |
82 |
72 |
75 |
64 |
81 |
Do not know/No response |
7 |
7 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
Impact on Vote Intention (b)
Q. Who are you now considering voting for?
BASE: Those who say debates changed their vote intention |
CANADA |
Liberal |
22 |
Green |
17 |
NDP |
12 |
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
Conservative |
7 |
Unsure |
19 |
Do not know/no response |
13 |
Impact on Vote Intention (c)
Q. How firm are you in your decision?
BASE: Those who say debates changed their vote intention |
CANADA |
Firm |
33 |
Still just thinking about it |
60 |
Do not know/no response |
7 |
Methodology:
Today’s poll was conducted using EKOS’ unique hybrid internet-telephone research panel, Probit©. This panel is randomly recruited from the general population, meaning that, the only way to be included in Probit© is through random selection. Unlike opt-in internet-only research panels, Probit© supports confidence intervals and error testing.
The results presented in this report are based on 1214 follow-up surveys with Canadians 18 years of age and older who participated in a Probit© survey on the federal election campaign between September 29 and October 1, 2008. The field dates for the current survey are October 3 to October 5, 2008. A sample of this size provides a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as regions).
All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
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