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SEAT PROJECTION – OCTOBER 3, 2008

Conservatives Tantalizingly Close to Majority

[OTTAWA – October 3, 2008] – We offer this seat projection, based on our latest EKOS tracking poll, released earlier today.

According to today’s figures, the CPC is poised for victory. Although the predicted 152 seats means the Conservatives are still shy of a majority, it would return them to power with a much strengthened minority (+28 seats). It is worth noting that the CPC would be improving their position despite achieving almost exactly the same proportion of the popular vote they had in the last election (roughly 36%).

Two factors have emerged in this election that allow for this scenario to occur. This first is that the gap between the Conservatives and the second place Liberals is much greater today (36:24) than in 2006 (36:30). The second is that the left-of-centre vote is far more fractured among the LPC, NDP and Greens.

This projection also finds the Bloc just six seats behind the Liberals, making Gilles Duceppe a serious contender for leader of the opposition. Based on our analysis, however, we would expect the LPC to retain its role as official opposition, as the party remains the primary beneficiaries of “strategic vote shifting”, a trend we anticipate coming into greater focus over last week of the election campaign.

As always, we caution that seat projections have inherent limitations. However, this projection offers a plausible scenario of what might happen if Canadians voted as they told us they intend to do over the last few days.

Today’s Seat Projection

CPC

Liberal

NDP

BQ

Green

Other

TOTAL

CANADA

152

60

41

54

0

1

308

Atlantic

22

6

4

0

0

0

32

Quebec

7

12

1

54

0

1

75

Ontario

58

30

18

0

0

0

106

Manitoba

10

1

3

0

0

0

14

Saskatchewan

13

1

0

0

0

0

14

Alberta

26

1

1

0

0

0

28

British Columbia

16

7

13

0

0

0

36

Yukon / Territories

0

2

1

0

0

0

3

A note on our methodology:

This seat projection is based on the results of a recent poll conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Taking our three-day rolling sample (September 30 – October 2) of 3,192 decided voters from across Canada, we have run them through a model that takes into account both the special arithmetic of our first-past-the-post system, and the parties’ historical patterns of support.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-seat-projection-6-_oct-3_

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