About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]



[Ottawa – September 17, 2009] – The federal Conservatives have continued to build their lead over the Liberal Party, which opened up after the possibility of a fall election triggered by the withdrawal of Liberal support was first raised a little more than two weeks ago.

Significantly, the Conservatives have established a lead over the Liberals in battleground Ontario at a time when Canadians in general are expressing somewhat more confidence in the direction of the country.

Contrary to some reports, the New Democrats are holding up reasonably well as they face increasing media attention, as one of the parties that will determine whether the Harper government stands or falls in the next few weeks.

“We have found that the NDP does relatively better among people in cellphone-only households,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS, “while the Conservatives do much worse. This may account for some of the discrepancy among recent polls with regard to the party.”

“Both the NDP and the BQ currently enjoy public support within a percentage point or two of where they finished in the last election,” said Graves. “So, their motivation for avoiding an election may have more to do with conserving energy and resources, as well as their balance of power in Parliament, than with fear of the results of another vote.”

“While the smaller parties may have an interest in continued minority government,” said Graves, “support for a majority is quite high and rising slightly. However, this support is almost exactly polarized between those who favour a majority Conservative government and those supporting a majority Liberal government. That polarization renders the prospect of it happening quite remote.”

“This irony may actually underpin the public’s aversion to yet another election: an election is unlikely to yield the more stable majority parliament Canadians are increasingly seeking.”

Meanwhile Canadians say they are more concerned with party platforms than they are with candidates or leaders, when they come to making their decision about how to vote.

“Given that Ontario may be the crucial arena in the next election, it is interesting that the parties’ platforms are particularly important there,” said Graves. “Could the campaign actually revolve around policies and ideas? Certainly that’s what the voters would prefer. Perhaps the most positive interpretation of this poll is that Canadians ultimately want a plan for the country to be the paramount factor shaping the next election.”

Click here for complete survey results: 0779-full-report-_september-17

1 comment to CONSERVATIVES OPEN UP THEIR LEAD – September 17, 2009

  • Phil in London

    The metropolitan Canada numbers offer some interesting insight, I assume the rural population sample was too small to be of any use?

    Seems with Ottawa and Toronto in statistical ties between the Liberals and Conservatives and Monteal a tie between Liberals and Bloc with strong leads in Vancouver and Calgary for the Conservatives that the Liberal base COULD be further eroded with anothe vote, is there any comment to this end?