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[Ottawa – January 21, 2010] – The federal Liberals have pulled into a virtual tie with the Conservatives in the past week – the first time they have drawn so close to the governing party since late summer.

“The Conservative Party has been in decline since mid-October,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “However, for the first time it is possible to say that the Liberals have also had a rebound – albeit a more modest one.”

The Liberals sunk into the mid-20 percent range in the fall after threatening to force an election. Today’s poll marks the first time since then that they have cracked the thirty per cent mark.

“The Liberals continued to edge upward this week despite Stephen Harper’s adroit response to the disaster in Haiti, which dominated the news, obliterating the vexatious issues of prorogation and the treatment of Afghan detainees,” Graves said. “However, public opinion sometimes lags the news by a few days, and so it will be important to watch whether the trends of the last month or two are sustained in coming weeks.”

The Liberals are staging a comeback at the moment among many of their key regions and demographics. They have regained a modest lead in Ontario, and a larger one in the Atlantic provinces. They are now clearly the strongest federalist party in Quebec.

“One key demographic group to watch as the race between the two major parties tightens are the baby-boomers,” said Graves. “They swung to the Conservatives in the last two elections, especially the most affluent among them. They then defected to the Liberals following the market crash, slowly moved back to the Tories as the markets recovered and the Liberals failed to offer a clear alternative economic plan. Now many are defecting to the Liberals again, apparently unhappy with the Conservatives’ governance style. The Conservatives still lead among this group, but their lead is much less significant than it was.”

The Liberals now have a clear lead among younger voters, though they continue to lag the Conservatives among older voters who have a higher propensity to vote. They have reclaimed a solid lead among university educated voters and among New Canadians – groups they had lost to the Tories during what was a dismal political fall season for the Liberal Party.

The Conservatives retain a narrow lead among men – a demographic group among whom they often lead by a larger margin. The two parties are virtually tied among women, though the Liberals have been on an upward trend in what is for them a traditional bulwark demographic.

The poll is one of a regular series conducted by EKOS Research Associates for exclusive release by the CBC.

Click here for the full report: full_report_january_21

6 comments to LIBERALS/CONSERVATIVES IN VIRTUAL TIE – January 21, 2010

  • Milos

    Very good news indeed

  • its good to see the liberals coming back i hope its not to late . the conservatives sure sat us back in a big hole again

  • Bambi Goboom

    Great news!!! Women are so much more advanced thsn men. This poll shows it!

  • Ray

    Nice to see Harper out of poison pill range.
    Thank you to the women.

  • Ken Cameron

    Stephen Harper and Conservitives tell us what great managers of the
    economy they are.History tells us another story.Every time they get
    into power it is the same story.They tell us what mangers they are and then run us so deep into debt that it takes generations to pay off

  • jay

    you are right ken its always the same when the torey s are in power maybe its why they dont get in often . thank god they dont.