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[Ottawa – January 14, 2010] – In a stunning turnaround for the ruling Conservatives, who were comfortably in majority territory just three months ago, the Tories now find themselves struggling to stay ahead of the opposition Liberals.

“For those who have been speculating as to whether Canadians really care about the ‘obscure’ issue of prorogation the evidence is now incontrovertible,” said EKOS President Frank Graves.  “Canadians have noticed, they do care and this is having a very negative impact on Conservative fortunes.”

The 15-point lead the Conservatives enjoyed over the Liberals in mid-October has tumbled to just 1.6 percentage points. For the first time since last June a clear plurality of Canadians say that the government is going in the wrong direction.  Outside of the shrinking CPC constituency there is a dramatic lean to seeing the federal government now moving in the wrong direction.

“Despite the shock to Conservatives, including the Prime Minister, who shrugged off the prorogation issue, there are some modest notes of comfort for the Tories in this poll,” said Graves. “First, the Liberals continue to be stuck in the sub-30% zone. They are well within reach of the Conservatives now, but the movements in public opinion seem to be driven more by repulsion to Conservative tactics than attraction to Mr. Ignatieff and the Liberal Party.”

Moreover, some of the erosion in support has come in the Tory fortress of the Alberta and Saskatchewan and may not have any effect in terms of seats. Also, the last few days of polling saw the CPC fortunes rebounding somewhat, suggesting that it may be difficult for the opposition to sustain public attention on the issue of prorogation.

Click here for the full report: full_report_january_14

5 comments to LIBERALS/TORIES IN HORSERACE ONCE AGAIN – January 14, 2010

  • Robin

    As a senior, I feel that it is without a doubt that Stephen Harper’s prorogation of Parliament was a catalyst for a growing and underlying distrust of his methods of governance. He is not to be trusted. He has a disdain for the public that makes him suspect. He has indeed been fortunate that the Liberal leader has been and still is weak in responding to his intimidating tactics. The majority of Canadians didn’t vote in the last Federal election because they felt an apathy about politicians and thus ensured Stephen Harper remain in power. He is Canada’s most divisive PM. He has no vision and a great country like Canada deserves a better leader. Its up to Ignatieff to show Canadians he has what it takes to be that leader and we, the majority will get behind him.

  • The Conservatives and their arrogant attitudes towards the electorate will come back to bite them big time. Yes Canadians do care and are watching and are appalled at the antics in Parliament.

    You have to wonder though, if these polls can determine who is a liberal,conservative and ndper, just who do they call to ask the questions they want answered. I see many of these polls questions being slanted towards an answer the pollsters may want. If you call 1,000 Conservatives imagine the results you would get, compared to calling 1,000 people lets say from across BC. I bet you the answers would be very different.
    If you were to call 1,000 Canadians without knowing their political attitude, you may have very surprising answers!

  • Liam Young

    Thank goodness Canadians seem to be coming to their senses. That is, until the next big shiny thing gets waved in their faces by the Con marketing machine. What’s next in the PR factory to win us over?

    Hopefully, it’s a permanent shift and the CPC begins its long-needed drift into oblivion.

  • Naveed

    on the contrary polling is pretty accurate as they do a random average cross-section, but only at a given moment, and with some percentage points perhaps to be adjusted (up or down).
    As for Stephen Harper his government has been non-accountable to Canadians for a long time, and the proragation move has proved to be a catalyst to demonstrate to Canadians the double-dealing, dictatorial, secretive and misrepresenting nature of this Conservative regime.
    I can only hope that Canadians continue to realize that this right wing agenda PM is a wolf in sheeps clothing, so to speak. And vote him and the Conservatives out of office in the next election.
    Don’t be fooled by his impending brainwashing on the economy and/or his promises—- remember that what he stands for is not what the overwhelming number of Canadians want for this country domestically or internationally, if only they fully realize it.

  • GSN

    No surprise here. The CPC has been there before. Just before the election campaign started in 2007, Tories were actually trailing Grits by 5%. Now guess what happened in the actual election.

    In the summer of 2009, Tories were neck to neck with Grits again. Now guess what happend next.

    There’s no gaurantee that the same thing will happen again this time. But I would hold off before making any hasty prediction.