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[Ottawa – February 4, 2010] – For the third week running the federal Conservatives and their Liberal opponents are virtually deadlocked in public support, and for the second week running the Liberals are showing a small numerical edge, but within the margin of error

“Clearly the strong trend away from the Conservatives, which is now more than three months underway, and the more recent trend to the Liberals, have slowed somewhat,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “This is not surprising since the Conservatives are now down closer to their core of most committed supporters.”

“That having been said, it is obvious now that the Conservatives have not been suffering simply from a surfeit of media coverage of the prorogation issue in an otherwise slow news period, as some were able to claim in early January” said Graves. “The Conservatives’ headaches have not gone away simply because prorogation has now faded from the front pages.”

The East-West split that has bedeviled Canadian politics has re-asserted itself quite starkly in this poll, mainly as a result of Liberal growth in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. The Conservatives lead west of the Ontario border, while the Liberals lead the Conservatives east of it.

The Liberals trail the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, but have a large margin over the Tories. The Liberals are also recovering somewhat in British Columbia, though still trailing the Conservatives.
This poll is one of a series conducted by EKOS Research Associates for exclusive release by the CBC. Like all of EKOS’ surveys of vote intentions, it has a much more robust sample size than most polls – double or even triple in some instances.

Interestingly, since EKOS introduced an option for respondents to choose “other” in expressing vote intention last month, Alberta has tended to register a significantly higher number in this category (6.2% this week, compared with a 2.4% national average). This may reflect some disenchantment with the Conservative brand in provincial politics, where the Wildrose Alliance Party is challenging the Progressive Conservatives. Of course, the Wildrose Alliance is not competing federally at this point.

Also worth noting is that the Green Party has emerged as a significant force in British Columbia in this poll.

Click here for the full report: full_report_february_4

6 comments to LIBERALS/TORIES IN DEADLOCK – February 4, 2010

  • cathy robinson

    Getting better for the Liberals

  • Anonymous

    Well I lked Stpehen Harper but am getting tired of his attitude that he can do anything. He is kind of a bully. Bring on the Green Party.

  • Paul Freier

    Well I have supported Stephen Harper in the past but now view him as a bully. The time for change is now. Bring on the Green Party.

  • Rebecca Dayman

    Stephen Harper has to go. No matter what the cost. We’ll expect answers from our government after the dust settles. At this point, if we do not remove Harper, there won’t be a democracy left to discuss!

  • caz

    Harper isn’t a bully…the opposition are cowards. Bring him down for God’s sake. The faux outrage about Harper’s bullying ways is getting way too tiresome and doesn’t clearly describe his manner. He’s governing only because you won’t take him down. If you can’t do that for whatever selfish and self serving reason…then shut up already.

  • bruno cociani

    When a PM puts an end to a debate by arbitrarily shutting down a parliamentary session rather than letting it come to a democratic and fair conclusion, it’s high time to stop him dead on his or her track. Whe he then tries to hoodwink the electorate by presenting his act as a “routine” procedure, it’s high time to boot im out of office – him, caucus and furniture alike. Let’s not forget his Tory predecessor, one Molroney, who reduced his majority government to a 2 seat token presence in the House. If we did it once, we can do it again.