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ELECTION ANYONE? – April 29, 2010


[Ottawa – April 29, 2010] – There is again talk of a parliamentary showdown, following this week’s ruling by the Speaker of the House of Commons on the release of documents relating to the Afghan detainees. But the last poll taken before the ruling suggests there are reasons for both the two major parties to be wary of any brinksmanship that might force an election.

While the Conservatives are in first place, they continue to track well below their performance in the last election with less that a third of Canadians saying they would vote for them if an election were held. That suggests that a majority would be difficult to achieve, a reduced minority would be quite possible, and even a defeat would be conceivable.

As for the Liberals, they continue to be mired below the 30% threshold as they were in the last election.

The news for the two major party leaders is hardly more encouraging: Stephen Harper has a decisively negative job-approval rating; Michael Ignatieff’s negative rating is even worse.

If Jack Layton seems somewhat feistier on the possibility of an election over the issue of the detainee documents that the Liberals do, it may be in part because he, alone among the three national party leaders, has a positive job-approval rating, and strongly so. In terms of
potential gains in an election, the NDP is the second-choice for just as many voters as theLiberals are, meaning his party has proportionately much more upside potential. (The Tories trail both the national opposition parties as a second choice, and are struggling to compete with the Greens in this category.)

It’s a measure of Canadians’ lack of enthusiasm for their political options that fewer of them are willing to express a second choice among the parties than in the past.

“In this fragmented political landscape, Canadians have no clear political champion at the moment,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “If there is a positive side to this, it may be to encourage the major parties to work out a compromise on the issue of the detainee documents, as the Speaker has encouraged them to do.”

Click here for the full report: full_report_april_29

7 comments to ELECTION ANYONE? – April 29, 2010

  • vincent watson

    The Liberals don’t have a chance of winning the next election. I support Harper 100%

  • Anonymous

    What would the results be if a compromise deal was made for Mr. Ignatieff to step aside in exchange for being guaranteed the post of GG by the next Liberal PM and an immediate, call-in or similar leadership vote replaced him with Gerard Kennedy for example?

  • Rolf Auer

    The Conservatives don’t have a chance of winning a majority the next election. I know I’m not voting for Harper.

  • wolf

    How anyone can support Harper 100% is a mystery. He has lied to Canadians, insulted Canadians, embarrassed Canadians on the world scene, disrespected our institutions, squandered our tax dollars, and then wrapped himself with the glow of economic success which he had nothing to do with. Our Bank laws were not touched or altered by Harper and their strength is the work of the well-respected Paul Martin. As of today Canada has recovered 40% approximately of the jobs lost in the recession! Success??? Our country has been sorely diminished by this egomaniac!!

  • Paul Freier

    I think a good idea would be for bot the Liberals and Tories to spend the next year getting new leaders and then we can maybe get fresh ideas and renewed optimism. It seems there are enough people fed up on both sides hence the lack of movement in polls.

  • Richard Wallington

    The trouble with the Liberals is their only claim to fame was balancing the budget. The problem is they did it at the cost of health care in Canada. Also, I have tried to find any article where an existing Canadian Government every shared matters of state security with the opposition, never happen. So, the Liberals have a phoney issue and are trying to ride to power on the backs of our military.

  • Leon

    with Harper bringing in americain draconian laws, how much of Canada will change for the worst.