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GUERGISIZED! – April 15, 2010


[Ottawa – April 15, 2010] – Following a protracted period of stability in which the Conservative Party enjoyed a small but stable lead, this week’s poll shows the Liberal Party back in an almost neck and neck position.

In the first good poll in months for Michael Ignatieff’s beleaguered Liberal Party, the pattern of gradually falling further behind the Tories has been abruptly disrupted. Last week’s 6-point lead is now only 2 points, which is not a statistically significant difference. What is more revealing is the daily pattern which shows the Liberals and Conservatives virtually tied this week, following the resignation of Helena Guergis.

“It is possible that continued difficulties on the Afghan detainee issue have also contributed to this change in outlook,” said EKOS president Frank Graves, “but it is likely that the more visible Guergis Affair is the driver of this shift.”

The problems are expressed in a clear sense that the government is heading in the wrong direction. This view is particularly pronounced outside of the 86% of Conservative supporters who think the government is headed in the right direction. The directional numbers are particularly harsh in Quebec where less than one in four voters think the government is headed in the right direction. This may reflect the cumulative effects of both Guergis and Afghanistan, but it is resulting in a very bleak outlook for the Conservatives in Quebec. At 16 points, they will definitely lose a number of seats and there are little recent signs of life. Meanwhile, the Liberals are emerging as the clear federalist option in Quebec.

In another area of concern, the Conservatives see a once two-to-one advantage with senior voters now dramatically diminished as the Liberals have become very competitive with this crucial voting segment. We suspect the Jaffer-Guergis affair is underwhelming these voters.

For the Liberals, the poll is the first good news in some time. Yet it is sobering for them to note that any poll under 30 points could be considered  good news for a party that was over 50 points a decade ago. Nonetheless, the seniors gains, a newfound slight lead in Ontario, and highly competitive positions in the Atlantic, BC, and Quebec must be considerable relief to them given their recent disconnection with the electorate.

“So some interesting but modest new shifts in what has been a moribund electorate” said Graves. “The most striking conclusion, however, remains the failure of any of the two chief rivals for power to move above the humble 33-point ceiling that a disgruntled electorate has imposed since the beginning of the year.”

Click here for the full report: full_report_april_15

2 comments to GUERGISIZED! – April 15, 2010

  • Rick

    Who really cares about these navel gazings

  • t gartner

    It is becoming increasingly clear that the liberals are stuck in a bad place because they cannot even appose properly. Its time for the old guard to step aside and let cacus members like Justin Trudeau, and anthony Roda take the reins. Whatever Iggy is, if he can’t follow how can he lead. There is no excitment in the party, seems they are trying to just grow old and obsolete, hey, that they have already done. Id they want a platform to run on how about accountability, Decorum in question period actually be the party to answer direct questions with a direct answer. If you can’t come up with an answer, the public will understand, but at least try.Be surprised how many votes you’d attract just by following a few simple, honest proceedures. How about being humble, integrity, honesty, ethics and scupples, anybody listening? Keep your promises and fight for the citizens of this country. Listen to us. We pay your wages and pensions, even while we may have none of either of our own. Appoint someone with real powers over the government to conduct reviews on government polices and do it quickly without the need of hearings or inquiries.You keep busting the balls of the taxpayer with all these institutions bleeding the public purse not only dry, but in serious deficet and debt problems.Get with it, your pissing around with the voters, that should be a big concern of yours. Get with it.