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[Ottawa – June 17, 2010] – In a virtually unprecedented political landscape, no federal party can break the rather humble 30.5 percent level. As a vivid indicator of the temper of the times, the electorate have bestowed the lowest ever rating of federal direction. It is not the “statistical” significance of the modest week to week fluctuations which is interesting; it is the overall trajectory and patterns of the last several weeks which are revealing. These patterns are highly significant and paint a rather bleak picture for both the Liberals and the Conservatives.

It is hard to imagine who should be more distressed by the current patterns. The Liberals remain mired in unthinkable depths for Canada’s erstwhile natural governing party. They are now clearly stuck in Dion levels and are attracting about half the vote that they routinely recorded in polls ten years ago. It is little wonder that heightened talks of alliances and leadership continue to circulate.

Yet the poll may be even gloomier for the ruling Conservative Party. While they still cling to a declining lead, they are in danger of falling below the 30 point-ceiling. The patterns show a clear decline which has seen a comfortable lead of nearly ten points dwindle to a downright uncomfortable 4-point margin over the past month. Their current vote intention is the lowest since they took office and the leading direction of federal government indicator is the lowest for any sitting Canadian government in the 11 years we have been tracking it. To be blunt, it is difficult to see how the Conservatives could form a legitimate government on the basis of these numbers.

Conservative woes have not lifted Liberal fortunes, nor has there been any clear beneficiary in a muddled political landscape. The regional races are interesting and show some new patterns over the past month or so. BC has become a very cluttered 4-way race with the NDP now enjoying a statistically insignificant lead. The newly muscular GP is hot on the heels of the Liberals, while the Conservatives are tied with the NDP for the lead. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives enjoy uncontested hegemony of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. In Ontario, the Liberals have moved out to a small but very important lead. Quebec shows the Bloc holding the strongest position as Quebec federalist voters seem hamstrung as to which federalist party they can tolerate. One clear pattern is that the Conservatives are currently positioned to see a significant decline in its Quebec representation. For several weeks now, the Liberals have enjoyed what seems to be a newly stable lead in Atlantic Canada.

Some had speculated that heightened chatter of coalitions would throw nervous voters back into Prime Minister Harper’s camp. To the contrary, the clear conclusion from the current poll is that no single party now enjoys sufficient public confidence to lead a legitimate government.

Click here for the full report: full_report_june_17


  • David

    Nothing to worry about….:)

    The NDP and Liberals have no chance of changing anything anyway.