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[Ottawa – September 30, 2010] – Over the last two weeks, the Conservatives and the Liberals have seen a slight rise in their fortunes and both front runners have now opened a wider gap on the other parties. The Conservatives now stand at 33.1 points (up from 32.4) and the Liberals are at 29.9 (up from 28.9). These gains appear to have come at the expense of the NDP, who appear to be in danger of being squeezed out of an increasingly tight two-way race.

The gap between university and college graduates (and, to a lesser extent, high school educated) is very large and growing. The Liberals now have a 14-point lead among the university educated, a dramatic (net 20 point) reversal of the 6-point disadvantage seen at the outset of the summer. The opposite is true among college graduates, however, where the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 17 points.

Also interesting to note is the lack of connection that youth have shown with any of the federalist parties. Outside of Quebec, where those under 25 are overwhelmingly behind the Bloc, youth are evenly split among the other four parties. Indeed, if voting were limited to those under 25, no party could be ruled out as a serious contender for power.

Regionally, the brief surge in Conservative support in Quebec appears to have subsided, while Ontario is once again deadlocked in a chronic see-saw battle, which will likely determine the outcome of the next election. The Liberals have a significant lead in the Atlantic provinces and the Conservatives are effectively bullet-proof in the West, save BC, which is a tight three-way race.

Click here for the full report: full_report_september_30

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