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[Ottawa – October 24, 2010] – Further to our release on October 22nd, we extended our polling for three days to see if the race had changed in the final stages. While the final three days of polling provides too small a sample (n=275) to treat this as a reliable stand alone poll, it is more than adequate to test the hypothesis that Rob Ford continues to possess a significant lead.

Recall that in our last release, Mr. Ford had an eight point lead. Some speculated that because polling was conducted over an eight-day period (we do not poll on the weekends), the race may well have been tightening over the final stages of the field work and that this had been masked. We had looked at this issue informally before releasing on the 22nd and were comfortable that the clear advantage was not an artefact of the early field period. The additional three-day roll presented here formally tests this question and leads to the clear conclusion that Rob Ford has a large enough advantage to win and his margin of advantage appears to be widening in the final stages of the campaign.

Over the final three-day roll, Mr. Ford enjoyed a near 15-point lead over Mr. Smitherman (48% to 33%). Mr. Ford has a huge lead with older voters. Mr Smitherman does very well with the most educated voters, but this will not be a large enough advantage to surpass Mr. Ford’s overall advantage. Education and age will be the key fault lines remaining after the winner is declared. If only the university educated voted, Mr. Smitherman would win handily. If the ballots were restricted to older votes or those without a university education, Mr. Ford would receive a crushing landslide victory.

As it is, this campaign will vividly reveal the potency of the populist, conservative wave evident in upper North American politics, and the continued woes of more progressive politics. Barring some sort of dramatic and frankly unlikely shift in the electorate, Rob Ford will emerge as the next mayor of Canada’s largest city on Monday.

Click here for the full report: full_report_october_24

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