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[Ottawa – March 25, 2011] – In our final poll before the election campaign begins, the parties stand at, well, pretty much where they were three years ago. While the Liberals and Greens are poised to make some minor gains at the expense of the Conservatives and the NDP, there is little chance that we will see any major changes in the balance of power. At these numbers, the Conservatives will retain their status as a minority government and it is doubtful that the Liberals will gain enough seats to form a legitimate coalition with the NDP, let alone the government.

This polls present some serious areas of concern for the opposition. The Conservatives have made small but significant gains in the last three months. At 35.3 points, they stand well above their 2010 average of 32.2%. Meanwhile, at 28.1 points, the Liberals have remained stagnant. The NDP is also sitting well below their 2008 election results. Furthermore, Conservatives hold a significant lead in the key battleground of Ontario and they are dead even with the Liberals in Quebec (though neither party comes near Bloc in terms of support).

The Liberal Party holds a solid lead among youth, though the Conservatives lead by an equally wide margin among seniors. These age differences do not bode well for the Liberal Party in terms of voter efficiency, as younger voters are consistently less likely to vote.

The Conservative Party continues to do very well among high school and college graduates, though they still struggle in capturing the university educated vote. The Conservatives also do very well among men, though they continue to fare comparatively poorly among women. It is important to note, however, that women are twice as likely than men to say they are undecided.

There are, however, some encouraging results for the opposition parties. While it is true that the Conservatives hold a solid lead, they have relatively little room to grow. When asked which party they would choose as their second choice, one-fifth of respondents chose the NDP and 15% picked the Liberal party. Less than one in ten would choose the Conservatives Party. Indeed, while the Liberals may trail the Conservatives by a wide margin, the two parties stand in a virtual tie when first and second choice are combined.

On a final note, we have also seen a surge in dissatisfaction with the direction of the federal government. It also appears that there have not been any significant movements in the electorate since the budget was tabled. In any case, it is clear that the party leaders have their work cut out for them.

Click here for the full report: full_report_march_25_2011


  • Mike Stokes

    What happened to the on-line politics poll you were conducting last week?

    I was polled..I assumed it was the usual bi-weekly CBC politics poll yet the CBC posted another EKOS phone poll conducted after the 17th.

  • George

    Why are your numbers way off than IPSOS REID who consistantly show the Conservatives with a double digit lead

  • CS

    Though it is very early and things can change, it appears we are going to prove nothing and waste $300 MM on an election a strong majority of Canadians do not want. Sure there are the politically brainwashed on both the left and the right who firmly believe that it is our right ect, and their response is typical. The only possible benefit we possibly might see is that all four leaders resign after selfishly forcing this election on Canadians. But would anything actually change?