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EKOS Seat Projection – April 28, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 28, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_28_2011

11 comments to EKOS Seat Projection – April 28, 2011

  • Hamish Wilson

    Hmm… if these can be trusted, it will be interesting to see if the Liberal and NDP total after the election can stay just enough ahead of the Conservatives and Bloc to give them a combined majority in Parliament. That may turn out to be the thing to watch, either way they will both combined have more than the Conservatives, which is the main thing that matters. If this projection is at all accurate of course…

  • Naveed

    I think this Ekos projection is quite accurate. You only have to assess the Ekos predictions for actual voting days and outcomes in past elections to realize that this polling company knows its business.
    In fact, I think in 2006? they predicted the Conservative seat total EXACTLY!

    The thing to watch is really if these poll numbers hold on May 2nd, and the Conservatives don’t then sneak in a few more seats in Ontario perhaps or BC. It seems assured that the NDP will be official opposition, and it only remains to find out if they may form a coalition government and displace the Conservative, dependant on results.

    As for results, the Liberals and NDP put together will need more seats than Conservatives, and also Harpers Conservatives will have to have a diminished minority. If this Ekos poll is accurate for election day, I don’t see the Bloc having any substantial seats to be a play-maker.

  • Luke

    If the NDP form the govt because Canadians are protesting, then they deserve what they get. The poor will get poorer and the rich will find a way to get richer and escape jack. People are only going to end up hurting themselves.

  • Brenda

    If we get an NDP government all those people who supported the NDP as well as those sensible Canadians who didn’t, will get jack, and yes I mean jack as well as Jack. Having lived through Rae days here in Ontario I shudder at the thought of the NDP having any real power nationally, but if that is what Canadians want, God bless democracy. Give smilin’ Jack a few years at the helm and watch our economy go down the toilet. But at least we’ll be rid of that creepy Stephen Harper with his funny blue eyes, right? To quote Ebeneezer Scrooge, I’ll retire to bedlam.

  • Georgia

    There is one very large error in the BC seat predictions. The constituents of Saanich-Gulf Islands is about to make history and elect Canada’s first Green MP, leader of the party, Elizabeth May.

  • Georgia

    ‘ARE about to make history’

  • Naveed

    Georgia your grammar may be lacking a slight bit, but your prediction is probably correct. Elizabeth May will win her seat for the greens. All the better if Jack Layton needs another person to back up his coalition government!

  • Kevin Desjardins

    NDP and Green supporters in each riding are missing the whole point of this election, they want Harper out of Government, they put CONS INTO GOVERNMENT IN 06 AND 08. The Liberals are in second place because of a base of support in 50 Cons elected ridings, because of there vote splits. If they want to change Government, then vote Liberal in those ridings to defeat Conservative MPs thats the point. Liberals are centralists and will provide balanced responsible government for all Canadians, unlike Cons. NDP and Greens have it their hands to give Canadians a stable and responsible government, if not then they will get Harper back, even more of a bully, pushing our parliament to there agenda. Simple solution, check your riding results from 08, if NDP was third place vote strategically ABC Anybody But Conservative, in 50 ridings that will be Liberals.see http://www.catch22campaign.ca

  • Chad

    Georgia, I’m from Saanich-Gulf Islands and i’m not voting Green. Don’t be so sure Elizabeth May is going to win here.

  • C Hooymans

    If Liz fails this time round – she might be done as a politician or try to join another party if they will have her. I hope Greens back Jack and hold him to his promise to usher in proportional representation for all Canadians. I’m tired of watching my vote being wasted in Alberta.

  • Kevin

    To address some of these comments….
    Federal and provincial governments are not the same, not at all, im not even going to expand on this…figure it out
    Bob Rae was a pretty awful premier…but im gonna just jump right out there and say so you think Harris Eves and/or McGuinty were/are any good at all?? No. Harris was just awful….Eves never did anything and Mcguinty is not only a poor political leader but hes an ass as well. BUT…THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE FEDERAL ELECTION lol
    To be honest we could do worse than Layton, we could have Harper again. Winning for the second time in a row because of the sponsorship scandal…its completely ridicules….
    The guy is blatantly ANTI-DEMOCRATIC, he refuses to talk to any so called ‘liberal media’ which as the representative of my country is a part of your responsibility. He began attack ads smearing Ignatief over two years ago…thats just plain slanderous, and I have no interest in having him be the face of our country which is full of people far better (and I do mean in terms of intrinsic value) than him…he wanted to change it from ‘the government of Canada’ to ‘harper’s government’….im sorry even if you win every last seat in parliment its still OUR government NOT yours….we the 30 million Canadians are your bosses and not the other way around.
    He acts as though his actions shielded Canada from the recession….economic policy changes take years to have their effects come to light, we were hit less hard than the US for two simple reasons, culture; our diversity gives us an enormous advantage on the worldwide market, and secondly un-like the US we did not hand out sub-prime mortgages to a bunch of people with no money no job and no income. (no sub-prime mortgages was a liberal call…liberals are also far more accepting of immigration…)

    Ask yourself for one second if there is any actual reason you don’t like Iggy….cause he lived outside Canada, its bad to be cultured? thats supposed to be a legitimate shot at his character?…thats pretty much racist….pretty much everyone I talk to doesn’t like him….but when i ask why there isn’t a reason….its two years of having propaganda from the conservative government shoved down your throat about him.

    Ignatief is going to lose this election because he refused to spend his entire campaign disparaging his opponents…and I think its disgusting that more Canadians dont realize that, realize thats how Canadian politics should be, and vote for him.