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Seat Projection – April 21, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 21, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Over the next few days, the electorate are going to start scrutinising the brave new political world they have tentatively created. There are profound strategic implications based on these new patterns of support and our data and analysis can provide some hints as to where the electorate might decide to go (and what these shifts might be telling us about what is driving the public). It is quite unlikely that these results are the final public judgement of Campaign 41 and it will be very interesting and important to watch what happens over the long weekend as the electorate ponder where they have arrived.

First of all, it seems clear that the public aren’t leaning to give Mr. Harper his majority. Seat projections reveal that if an election were held today, the Conservatives would win a diminished minority while the Liberals and the NDP would share a higher total number of seats. The question of which side will win more seats is of crucial importance. If the public drift back to the Conservatives, then this may well be a signal of a secure minority. If they go the other way, this could be a pretty clear mandate for a change of government. It is also unclear if the latter of these two scenarios were to occur whether the voters will continue to gravitate to Jack Layton or whether they will see Michael Ignatieff as a better choice to preside over this new government. What is clear is that the fundamental drivers of this issue is the ballot question of whether voters want a change of management because of fundamental dissatisfaction with the Conservative government or shall we stay the course because everything is working pretty well at the national level?

It is notable that residents of Quebec are the most dissatisfied with direction of government and this is precisely where NDP are posed to pick up the most seats.

All in all, Campaign 41 has just become very interesting and the voter response to these new dynamics against the still stable ballot question will be extremely interesting to watch in coming day. The shape of final public judgement should come into fairly clear focus by mid week.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_21_2011

20 comments to Seat Projection – April 21, 2011

  • Mr. Harper has tried to minimize the affect of the contempt of Parliament issue. this has not been helpful to his campaign.

  • Gilles

    It is obvious that somewhere around 40% of the electorate don’t care about the contempt of parliament thing or for that matter any of the Harper antics… In fact, it seems that few care – across the board. All of this is sad as the conservatives are gonna squeak through – probably with a majority – because people don’t ‘like’ Iggy? Bring on the coalition I say… But,


    Right Harpo is much better!

  • Jon Krys

    Contempt of Parliament was merely an excuse to call an election on something other than the budget. If NDPéLib continue to split the vote, look for more Ontario seats to go to the Conservatives.

  • A Harper Majority with NDP official opposition would be a good combination.

  • Gerry Flood

    Based on these seat projections, it looks like another minority government. This time it will be a coalition of Harper and his left hand man Duceppe to make this parliament work. Failing that, Harper goes back to the original coalition, the National Citizens Coalition. See ya Stevie, pick up the $56B tab you ran up on your way out. We need a fresh start to turn this country around.

  • Gerry Flood

    I had read somewhere that said only 20% of Canadians actually care or follow politics. If that is true, be nice to actually have a poll on that after this election, than of the 80% who don’t care or follow you would expect the 40% who don’t vote fall into that category. So of the 20% who care are supporters of all 5 parties, the remainder are undecided, leaning, voting based on??? IF any of the above makes sense we may never see a majority again for a long time, especially if the youth don’t bother to show up or take an interest in politics.

  • Michael Williams

    I think the seat projection is fantastic, what progressive voter wouldn’t want to see it? But I question the methodology. The NDP might take 2 seats in Alberta and 14 in Quebec? Which seats are these? Few ridings looked, unfortunately from the last election results, like they might easily flip, so while the province wide numbers might show gain, I have doubts that these numbers would actually translate into seat counts.

    And speaking from a GTA perspective, might not a jump in NDP fortunes bite into Liberal margins? The 3 ridings in Brampton are a perfect example where an NDP surge might actually elect more Conservatives, while not producing any NDP seat gains.

    I hope these numbers are accurate, I’d love to wake up on May 3rd and see them, but I have my doubts.

  • Derrrick

    Go harper Go ,Conservatives 201 seats for sure

  • Derrrick

    Matts comments is the only possibilty

  • Mike

    If contempt was merely an excuse, than why has it NEVER happened in not only Canada, but the whole of the Commonwealth of Nations? That’s a lot of minority governments that could have used it as a mere excuse.

  • Bill Henderson

    Harper’s contempt of Parliament and therefore Canadians has been quite clear for some time. It is a perfectly good reason for dissolving parliament. If Canadians think they are happy with the Harper government then they are just not paying attention.

  • Delilah

    No Independents predicted at all in this election? Really?

  • Any “combination” involving a Conservative majority is bad news for the country. The Conservatives in a majority would mean the last fully free and fair election in Canada for a long time to come.

  • Mark

    Yeah, contempt is just an excuse.

    Get a grip!

    When will you realize that playing down everything only works on the thugs and idiots. Oh wait…

  • Ellen

    I double-dog dare the people about to vote conservative to read “Harperland” and still vote conservative. I keep hearing that the conservatives are such good economic stewards. They came into power with a 2.8 billion dollar surplus and were in 500 million dollars of debt before the recession hit. They are running huge deficits, much of which went into marketing the party. The only oninion considered relavent is Stephen Harper’s, as indepedent thought is considered a threat. Do you really want this one person being in control of high tech military toys? These are not conservatives you will be electing; they are lawn ornaments for a totalitarian governent. Harumph!

  • Neil

    Oh this seat projection is so far out, again! This shows the NDP winning 5 seats in Saskatchewan, last election they were shut out and in this election the NDP are unlikely to win a seat here, for them to win 5 would be impossible (There is only one seat where they have any kind of chance) This just shows how far out to lunch this seat projection is. There is a far better chance that the Conservatives sweep Sask than the NDP win one seat. The only seat that may not go Conservative is in Regina and will go Liberal. A better seat projection: http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

  • MO

    Not sure how this is done. While their vote may go up there is absolutly no way the NDP will win 5 seats in MB. They will likely win 4, but no way they win 5. I don’t think it would be too hard to look closer at individual races when doing this. That all said I would jump for Joy if the NDP did win 60+ seats.

  • Kevin

    56 Conservative Canadiates have avoided All Candidates meetings. Parliament is lied to, and ignored, our house. Spending Biulls are passed with lies, ! Billion for Security for G20, Philadelphia spent NINE Million, with an “M” London didnt spend 20 “M”illion for a G8.


    Remove them, investigate and charge. I wont be happy till we get to the bottom of this manipulating scheming anti-democrat.

  • Earl Rochester

    Some small c Conservatives think that if Harper gets a majority he’ll govern from the centre as a means of staying in power. NOT going to happen. Expect nutty right wing policies. Why? Because he will have successfully gained a majority by appealing to a fringe element of true believers. Under these circumstances, why would he feel any need to govern from the centre?

  • Nick

    I have Conservative voters in my family. They vote out of fear of an imagined nightmare scenario if ‘the socialists gain power.’ It seems to have to do with brand loyalty and fear for their retirement savings.

    Contrary to evidence of enormous deficits every time the (Progressive) Conservatives are in power, contempt of parliament, sneaky proroguing tactics, loss of prestige for Canada at the UN and Kyoto (etc.), and reckless tax cuts, they believe that the Honrable Mr. Harper is good for business and for Canada. They are believers. Evidence doesn’t seem to matter.

    Voting is not like ordering food at a restaurant. You are not choosing for yourself alone. You are choosing for everyone, and therefore you have a duty to choose wisely so as not to harm others.

    How can I convince my family to reconsider their brand loyalty? Suggestions?