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[Ottawa – April 28, 2011] – Following a frantic flurry of changes, the Canadian electorate appears to have paused to consider where they have arrived in as Campaign 41 winds its way to a shocking conclusion. The Conservatives are strongly ensconced with 34.8 points with a dramatically strengthened NDP in second at 27.5. The Liberals continue to plumb historical depths as they slide to 22.3. The Green Party is significantly reduced from their status entering the final days of the 2008 campaign and the Bloc Quebecois is in danger of sliding to political oblivion in Quebec in what is arguably the most shocking story of this campaign.

Looking at those most certain to vote, the Conservatives extend their advantage by a full point to 35.7 while the NDP, the Liberals, and the Bloc would hold the same proportions as they hold among all eligible voters. The Green Party would lose another point of support. The NDP and the Liberal Party are the only parties with much opportunity for further growth and the NDP shows a modestly higher propensity to change their vote.

It is also interesting to note that nearly ten per cent of women voters remain undecided (twice the rate for men). If the Liberals have any hopes of cushioning what is becoming a disastrous campaign, they will desperately need to convert some of those undecided women, NDP supporters, and recent losses to the Conservatives back to their fold. As for a massive NDP collapse, that likely isn’t going to happen. Jack Layton’s orange train has left the station and it’s just a question of how far it will take him. With a very slight uptick, he could see himself arriving at not only Stornoway, but even Sussex if the new government were to be defeated promptly. Heady stuff for a party that entered the race at a mere 14 points.

In the next few days, we will see if Canadian voters have any further surprises in store for what must be shell shocked politicians. It seems that final movements in vote rich Ontario will provide the answer as to what colour – or colours – the next government of Canada will be.

Click here for the full report: full_report_april_28_2011


  • Naveed

    If its the only choice between Harpers Conservatives governing or a coalition led by Jack Layton, I opt for the coalition. So should all Canadians.

  • Terry

    I can see two seats here that are way out of whack. Yes, Yukon will be Red, but NWT/Nunavut will be blue. Strong Conservative incumbent in Nunavut and NDP is on the skids in NWT.

  • Stephen

    It’s time to oust the corporate advocating conservatives and elect a party that represents the people. Go Jack and the NDP.

  • No coalition Who would want the NDP and Jack Layton as Prime

    Minister. He would break our country with his promises.

  • Leanne

    I totally agree Naveed>

  • Joe Ferreira

    Absolutely I will prefer the coalition, ead by Jack Layton. After 44 years in Canada, never seen a government and a PM more arrogant, control freaks,where they act like we voters (shareholders) have nothing to do with the country (corporation) but financing it blindly without accountability. In other words, we are just a bunch of idiots, that know nothing, not even what we want or like. The PM and his cronnies tell us what we like or want. I thought at one point in the past that PM Pierre Trudeau had all the prerequisits for a dictator, boy! did I get a lesson, with Stephen Harper and his Cons, even the nickname fits!. Like some wise person once said,”never again”!

  • Jacqueline

    Are Canadians thinking of the welfare of their country? It would appear not if they vote for NDP who are dreamers, heavy spenders and will raise taxes. Think twice if you don’t want to slip back into a recession, lose jobs and have a socialist country. Has Harper done such a bad job that we risk the economy of our country?

  • Jack

    Has anyone questioned why Layton is so popular with Quebec–because he will give all they want at the expense of the rest of the country. Have you considered that this vote could trigger a western separation, and therefore there goes the funds to support the other provinces. Think seriously about your decision

  • Boots

    Harpers arrogant he does not deserve a Majorit. I hope we don’t inadvertently give him one on Monday. The system need to be changed away from first past the post. it scare me that 38% popular vote can translate into a massive majority due to vote splitting. Reform the senate and the electoral system. Get rid of harper first