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[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (morning)] – In what would have been unthinkable as little as a week ago, McGuinty’s Liberals appear headed towards a majority. Our three-day roll-up of more than 2,000 Ontario residents puts the Ontario Liberal Party at 39.0 per cent, a full nine points ahead of the Progressive Conservative Party who now stand at 29.7 per cent. The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, is at 23.1 points and the Green Party is sitting at 6.6.

We now turn to the question of what happened. Just ten days ago, our polls showed the Ontario Liberals with a small (albeit statistically significant) lead and now their victory seems all but certain. Pending a still premature post mortem, there are two interrelated factors which partially account for this turnaround. Recall that the Progressive Conservatives enjoyed a double digit lead in some polls six months ago.

In large measure, the demise of the Progressive Conservatives was forged from a failure in Toronto, both in the metro area and in the outlying suburbs. Indeed, the Liberals lead the Progressive Conservatives by a margin of two-to-one in those very areas which were the margin of majority difference for the federal Conservatives last May. It appears that continued reminders from federal Liberals about the connections to the Conservative government in Ottawa may well have diminished Tim Hudak’s prospects by reinforcing voter anxieties about having too many eggs in one political basket. The fact that this effect was most pronounced in Toronto may well have been due to the presence of right leaning governments in both Toronto and federally.

Moreover, and related, the Ontario Liberals’ huge lead with those born outside of Canada, most of whom live in Toronto may well have been related to various Hudak comments about Liberal policy favouring foreigners, most of whom live in Toronto. In any case, from the still smoldering ashes of the federal Liberal fortress, Toronto Liberals have shown a remarkable renaissance.

Come Election Day, we may see a slightly tighter outcome between the Liberals and Conservatives while the NDP, whose voter base is dominated by younger age groups who have historically shown the lowest turnout rates, will likely go down a bit. However, these differences will not affect the final outcome. With Ontario Liberals holding a significant lead with the university educated and boomers, as well as a newfound lead among the always-voting seniors, all signs are pointing to a Liberal majority.

Click here for the full report: Full Report (October 5, 2011)

1 comment to MCGUINTY HEADED FOR THIRD CONSECUTIVE MAJORITY – October 5, 2011 (morning)

  • patty henry

    this is unbelievable, if mcguinty wins then i can only shake my head at ontarians. what to say, you really deserve what you get. us minority non liberal voters can just move out of province.