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[Ottawa – July 3, 2012] – For the first time in our polling, the New Democratic Party of Canada now leads in federal vote intention. Before offering congratulatory words to the NDP, however, it should be noted that the party is only slightly above its 2011 election standing. Similarly, the Liberal Party is in the same region as the election. The real story of the past year is therefore not the NDP’s progress, but rather the Conservative Party’s slide. Indeed, if this trend continues, the party may very well be in danger of falling below levels sufficient to sustain moral authority and legitimacy.

Only one in three Canadians thinks the government is moving in the right direction and confidence in broader national direction is also low. While retaining some of their core constituencies such as seniors and Albertans, the Conservatives are in desperate straits in Quebec and British Columbia and down significantly in Ontario and Atlantic. These results are most likely concerns with the governing style of the Conservative Party, their policy legacy of year one in office and quite likely growing concerns with ethics.

If the ongoing investigations and court cases turn our badly for the Conservatives, we could see them declining into the mid and low twenties. It will be interesting to see how the public would respond to the continued autocratic style of the Conservatives if they three in four Canadians did not support them or their broad directions. Not since the second term majority of Brian Mulroney in 1988 has a newly elected majority government fallen below 30 points a year after gaining office.

Click here for the full report: Full Report (July 3, 2012)

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