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Narrow Conservative Lead in a Newly Three-Way Race


[Ottawa – March 27, 2015] Our latest polling shows an insignificant but continued decline in Liberal fortunes. The Liberals are now below 29 points for the first time in a long time and the long-term trend is not positive. The Conservatives, while down from a high of 35 points, now enjoy a small but statistically significant lead based on the Liberal decline.

The real story here, however, may be a gradual but significant rebound in NDP fortunes, who have climbed from below 18 points to just over 23 and they now trail the Liberals by just five points. The NDP now have a strengthened lead in Quebec and are showing renewed strength elsewhere in the country. Indeed, the whole political calculus of voters may change under these circumstances, as the promiscuous progressive segment (who focuses more on how best to depose Mr. Harper rather than a specific progressive option) may start looking more carefully at the NDP.






While this is a poor poll for the Liberals, there is very little good news for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party. The party has stalled (and may actually be falling back), and confidence in direction of the federal government is dropping. Support for the ISIS mission, to which Mr. Harper has tied himself, is beginning to fade. Support for extending the mission is quickly dropping and Mr. Harper is likely to find himself on the wrong side of this issue very shortly. Furthermore, the economy looks downright brutal to citizens. All of these factors present some clear areas of opportunity for both the Liberals and the NDP (as well as the Green Party and Bloc Québécois).

Clarity a problem for Liberals?

The longer term decline for the Liberals is in part a product of terror and security, but results also seem to suggest that the Liberals’ numbers are suffering over a lack of clarity as to what the party plans to do for the country and its citizens. In contrast, NDP improvements may be linked to staking out a clear stance on issues such as Bill C-51 and the ISIS mission. However, the narrow three-point advantage enjoyed by the Conservatives is hardly insurmountable and the issues that resurrected their fortunes may have a limited shelf life. The key challenge for opposition parties will be to turn the channel from the Middle East to the middle class.




Direction of country/government




This study was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are March 18-24, 2015. In total, a random sample of 4,311 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here for the full report: Full Report (March 27, 2015)

3 comments to Narrow Conservative Lead in a Newly Three-Way Race

  • G.

    Just how do I sign up to help participate in these polls?


    • Derek Andrew


      Angus Reid has a Forum where you can sign up. They will send surveys to your e-mail address on a regular basis. Most surveys have a small monetary value attached to them $.5-$2. You can redeem the money once you have $50 or donate it to a charity via Angus Reid.

      Most other pollsters try and get a random sample therefore, you can not sign up but, must be randomly selected and polled.

  • P

    G, you cannot sign up for a Random Digit Dialed poll. Its power lies in the fact that it uses probability sampling to poll a random sampling of Canadians. If good pollsters like Ekos allowed people to volunteer themselves to be counted, we would be looking at a very different picture of voting intention. The best you can do is respond when/if a polling agency contacts you.

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