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Conservative Fortunes Waning as Liberal Fortunes Rise in Nearly Deadlocked Race

FORD-LED PCs HURTING SCHEER IN ONTARIO

[Ottawa – June 17, 2019] The political landscape is now clearly shifting in favour of the Liberals and to the detriment of the Conservatives. The Scheer-led Conservatives have seen their 11-point lead from just a month ago shrink to a narrow 2.7-point lead as of last night.

The results of our most recent three-day poll (n=1,229) are: 33.6 per cent for the Conservatives, 30.9 per cent for the Liberals, 13.6 per cent for the Greens, and 11.9 per cent for the NDP. For the purpose of ensuring a more reliable analysis of regional and demographic patterns, we also present a six-day roll (n=2,491), which shows a four-point lead for the Conservatives. These results, coupled with the three-day roll, suggest that the recent trend of inverse fortunes for the Liberals and Conservatives is continuing.

The most notable feature of the political landscape is the clear decline of Conservative fortunes in seat-rich Ontario and the corresponding rise of the Liberals. In our internal polling, we found that this pattern is clearly linked to declining confidence in Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government.

The Conservatives continue to enjoy a large advantage with men, while the Liberals have a modest advantage with women. The Conservatives have a large advantage with working class and non-university educated voters, which is critical to their constituency and different than in 2015. Regionally, the only clear results outside of Ontario are the prairies, which look to be an overwhelming Conservative advantage. British Columbia, Quebec, and the Atlantic look to be a confused and unclear mix of support.

Using our internal seat projections, we have the Liberals holding a razor-thin advantage of 150 seats versus 143 for the Conservatives. The Green Party, which received just three per cent and a single seat in the last election, is now at 14 points and looking at capturing 12 seats should these numbers hold. This number will become particularly interesting if the combined Liberal and Green numbers surpass a majority of the seats. The NDP is struggling at just 14 seats. Any further erosion could move them out of official party status and into rump territory.

It is important to note that seat projections at this stage, while anecdotally interesting, have little value in terms of the October election. The election is still four months away and a great deal can happen in that time.

Bottom line: the October election is going to be an extremely tight contest with no clarity as to who will be the winner. At this stage, the most likely scenario is some form of minority government.

Please click here for the full report.

16 comments to Conservative Fortunes Waning as Liberal Fortunes Rise in Nearly Deadlocked Race

  • George Bennett

    Ontario does not want a Ford in their future – and the Greens seem to have Singhed the NDP.

  • J.B.

    I’m an American watching this election very nervously. It looks like the Conservatives have a lead in the popular-vote numbers while the Liberals have a narrow lead in seat distribution.

    That sounds like how in the U.S., Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Donald Trump won the electoral college. Except in this case there’s a reversal of sorts in that Justin Trudeau is the “Democrat” leading the “electoral college” and Andrew Scheer is the “Republican” leading the popular vote.

    I hope this trend holds and that Canada doesn’t end up with its own Baby Trump giving a throne speech from the high chair.

    • Kory

      I wouldn’t feel too nervous, the de facto policy difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives is marginal. Scheer will be pretty harmless. Losing the carbon tax will be regrettable, but the Liberals were unlikely to raise it high enough to effect emissions anyway.

  • db

    I’m very surprised that under ‘demographics’ the ‘poor’ and ‘working class’ favour cpc so much.

    • Marc Reinarz

      Lack of education, maybe? Or most vulnerable to alt-right social media…
      The high CPC support surprised me more from the education side. That is the generation which suffers most from the lack of attention to climate change.

  • Nobody

    Hurray for Green polling in 3rd place!!!!!!!!!!!! Woooohooooo!!!!!!!!!

    Thank God for that, since the rest of these poll results look very scary.

  • Peter

    The demographic numbers are the most interesting.

    The elites support LPC and think they are doing a favour to the working class by voting tax and spend liberals who pay lip service to helping the working people but their policies generally only enrich narrow special interest groups and insiders.

    The working people overwhelming vote CPC because they want no part of the liberal welfare/entitlement state. They want a fair society where hard work is rewarded, and not connections and identifying with special interests.

  • E.L.

    All the demographic %s are of no use if they don’t translate into seats. The worst result of FPTP is a [false] majority government where most of voters go unrepresented. Then it swings the other way and you end up with government jet lag and loss of trust in the system. MMPP seems to work half decently in New Zealand. So far I hear no party wanting to discuss electoral reform and that’s where my vote is. There is no left in Canada, it’s all shades or right.

  • Devin

    “I’m very surprised that under ‘demographics’ the ‘poor’ and ‘working “class’ favour cpc so much.”

    Is this sarcasm? If not, you must not get out very much. Conservative parties always appeal to poorer, working class people, despite conditions being objectively worse for those people when conservatives parties are in power.

  • Robert Kwakernaak

    I expect the Pretend Environmental Plan Scheer just presented will further erode his lead. The Liberals have made mistakes which have lead to a decrease in their polling numbers, but their platform is quite a bit closer to what Ontario east, and BC thinks. I’m personally hoping for a Liberal Minority, with the Greens breaking through and becoming kingmakers.

  • P. Vincent

    The CPC’s advantage in Alberta (+48%) and Saskatchewan (+42%) is excessive, i.e. well above what is required to win most seats in those two provinces.The excess is akin to useless votes (would have more impact if received in other provinces where races are tighter). This leaves the LPC with an advantage in the aggregate of the rest. The narrower CPC’s advantage in B.C. and Manitoba is too small to compensate for the LPC’s advantage elsewhere, notably in Ontario. If these numbers hold, the LPC could very well win more seats with fewer votes nationally. However, I am much intrigued by the narrowing gap between the LPC and the CPC in Quebec: what if this apparent trend continues? The Liberals’ strongholds would become Ontario and the Atlantic Region! –somewhat strange…

  • Richard Donald

    The last EKOS poll (july 26,2018) had the Liberals with a 35-32 lead on the CPC. How does the CPC having a 34-30 lead now spell doom and gloom for the CPC?

    The premise in the narrative in the analysis is that the other pollsters have it correct that the Liberals are in free fall.

    Why come up with a poll now that there is so much bad news for the Liberals?

  • Jay mack

    Of we get another Trudeau Government we are screwed. If there was a different leader it would prob be ok but this guy is brainless and an egomaniac

  • Pat

    Working class,poor,middle class….these classes of people voting conservative,against there own self interests….I don’t understand,why?

  • Karol Pohl

    If Canadians hold true to their voting pattern the Conservatives will win but I suspect with a minority. This is what happens every time the Liberals mess up Canada and do not know what to do about it. I only worry is that those newer voters will not see past the slick Liberal lies.

  • Anita Hoffman

    I received a phone call about a week ago regarding a survey on Canadian politics. I was not home and a message was left. I was at work when the phone call came in. There was no phone number to call back, I believe my voice message machine cut it off but it was not there. Is there a phone number or website where I can participate?

    Please and thank you,

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