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Saskatchewan Party widens large lead over NDP

[Ottawa – August 31, 2020] The Saskatchewan Party has widened its lead over the opposition New Democrats to 32 points, and now have the support of over twice as many decided voters, as they lead the NDP 60-28. The remaining 12% support another party. These numbers are good news for the governing Saskatchewan Party just two months ahead of a planned election in October. Still, nearly a quarter of voters (24%) remain undecided.

Compared to our last poll conducted in June and early July, the Saskatchewan Party has gone up three points from 57%, while the NDP is down four points from 32%. Support for other parties has remained the same at 12%, while the amount of undecided voters went up one point from 23%. These numbers are closer to the result of the 2016 election, which saw the Saskatchewan Party win 62% of the vote and NDP 30%.

The Saskatchewan Party continues to lead in every region of the province, including in the two main cities of Saskatoon and Regina. Since our last poll, the Saskatchewan Party has made inroads in Saskatoon, going from a nine-point lead (46-37) in July to a 13 point lead (52-29) now. Not much has changed in the provincial capital though, with the Saskatchewan Party now leading by 12 points in Regina (50-38), and the NDP dropping one point from July (50-39). The Saskatchewan Party has increased its margins in the rural part of the province, with its biggest lead in Western Saskatchewan, where it still has the support of three quarters of decided voters (74%; down from 75 in July), compared to the NDP which is now down to 16% (down from 20). The Saskatchewan Party saw an increase in its numbers in both the North and the East, going from 63% to 69% in Eastern Saskatchewan and from 53% to 60% in the North.

One of the biggest shifts in voter intentions over the summer has come from men. Our last poll showed no discernible difference between how men and women were planning on voting. Over the last month and a half, the Sask Party-NDP gap among men has widened considerably, while the gap among women has remained steady. The Saskatchewan Party now leads the NDP by 42 points (65-23) among men, which is a nine point increase for the Sask Party and a 10 point drop for the NDP. Among women, the gap has actually tightened, as the NDP has gone up two points to 32, while 57% still support the Saskatchewan Party.

There has not been as much of a shift among the different age groups. Voters over 55 remain only somewhat more likely to support the Saskatchewan Party compared to younger voters. The age gap is widest among the 50-64 cohort where the Sask Party has a 37 point lead (63-26), and is the closest among the 35-49 cohort, where it has a 21 point lead (56-35). Education remains a driving factor in how the parties are polling. Since our last poll, the biggest shift has come among college-educated voters, where the Saskatchewan Party now leads the NDP by 44 points (67-23), compared to last month, when the gap was just 28 points (57-29). This gap is now wider than high school-educated votes, where the Sask Party leads 65-23. The gap remains the tightest among university-educated voters, where the Saskatchewan Party leads 48-39.

With the next election just two months away, it looks like the Saskatchewan is well positioned to win another landslide, barring any unforeseeable events. Still though, a quarter of voters are still undecided, and this number hasn’t changed over the Summer. If this group decides they want change, things could get closer.


This survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are July 10 to August 26, 2020. In total, a random sample of 1638 Saskatchewan residents aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, education, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the Saskatchewan electorate, according to Census data and past election turnouts.

Please click here for the data tables.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

2 comments to Saskatchewan Party widens large lead over NDP

  • Roy Schneider

    This seems remarkably one-sided, although you correctly note it’s consistent with the results of the last election.

    Is there any way you can add me to your mailing list?

    I’m retired, but remain a political junkie with an interest in what the public is thinking.

  • Moo boo

    Instead of saying “other” please list the other names of the parties.

Leave a Reply to Roy Schneider Cancel reply