[Ottawa – September 2, 2020] The Progressive Conservative lead over the NDP in Manitoba has shrunk to 13 points, with the PCs now ahead 44-31.The Liberals remain in third place with 12 points and the Greens are now at nine points. This is a one point gain for the governing Tories from the 43% share in our last poll in July and a four point gain for the opposition New Democrats. From the 2019 election, the Tories are down three points from 47%, while the NDP mark is the same as the 31% they won in the last election. The Liberals are down six points from our last poll, and down two points from the 2019 election, while the Greens are up two points from our last poll, and are up four points from the last election. The remaining 4% in our poll would vote for another party. One-in-six voters (16%) remain undecided, down from 20% in our last poll.
The NDP has now taken over the lead in Winnipeg, while the Tories have huge leads in the rest of the province. In Winnipeg, the NDP is up five points from our last poll, and now has a narrow two-point lead over the PCs, who have dropped two points. A narrow NDP lead in Winnipeg is fine for the PCs, who are leading in nearly every other corner of the province by massive margins. Their best region is now the North/Parkland/Interlake region, where they have the support of two-thirds (67%) of voters. Liberal support has dropped in every region of the province, including in Winnipeg, which remains their best region. In Winnipeg, Liberal support has dropped five points from 21 to 16%.
The gender gap between the two parties has widened. In our last poll, there was not much difference in who men and women supported, but the drop in Liberal support as benefited the Tories with male voters, and the NDP with female voters. The Tories have gone up four points with men, and now lead the NDP 45-24. With women however, the Tories have gone down two points, while the New Democrats have gone up six points, and now lead the NDP 41-35.
The Progressive Conservatives still lead among all age groups, but now only lead the NDP by one point (40-39) among voters between the ages of 35 and 49. Since our last poll, there has been a large shift in the voting intentions of young people (under 35), with the Liberals dropping from 25 down to just four points. This has benefited the NDP and the Greens, whose support has gone up nine points and 13 points respectively in this age group, and has put the Greens into third place with young voters.
The PCs continue to have large leads over the NDP among high school and college educated voters, though the NDP has closed the gap in each group. Support for the NDP has gone up six points among high school educated voters and five points among college educated voters. The NDP continues to have a three point lead (37-34) over the Tories among university educated voters. The Liberals have their strongest numbers among university educated voters as well, where they are polling at 19%. The Greens are polling their best with high school-educated voters, where they are in third place at 12%.
While the Progressive Conservatives remain popular in Manitoba, their numbers have remained stagnant during the COVID-19 pandemic, quite unlike the governing parties in other provinces we’ve polled. They should not be too worried though, as the next election is still three years away, and their lead is still a comfortable one.
Methodology:
This survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.
The field dates for this survey are July 4 to August 26, 2020. In total, a random sample of 1154 Manitoba residents aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, education, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the Manitoba electorate, according to Census data and past election turnouts.
Please click here for the data tables.
Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.
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