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Liberals Hold Stable Lead

[Ottawa – December 2, 2020] As the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic rages on, the Liberal Party holds a stable lead over the Conservatives. At 35 points, Liberal support has scarcely budged since the summer. If the public are disappointed over potential delays in rolling out a vaccine, their discontent does appear to be translating into votes.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would be pushing the majority threshold, given the distribution of their support in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec. Conservative support, meanwhile, remains inefficiently concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The Liberals hold a significant lead with university educated voters, while they trailer the Conservatives among college graduates. Conservatives would win handily if voting were limited to men, while the Liberals would win a landslide majority if voting were restricting to women.




Methodology:

This report draws on data from two separate surveys. Both surveys were conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for the first survey are November 13-26, 2020. In total, a random sample of 5,240 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 1.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

Please click here for a copy of the data tables.

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