Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.
[Ottawa – September 20, 2021] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with tens of thousands of cases that have been collected over the past two months. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates.
Our final projected seat tallies are as follows:
LPC |
CPC |
NDP |
BQ |
GP |
PPC |
OTHER |
164 |
113 |
27 |
31 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
Riding-by-riding forecasts:
Newfoundland and Labrador |
|
Avalon |
LIBERAL |
Bonavista–Burin–Trinity |
LIBERAL |
Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame |
LIBERAL |
Labrador |
LIBERAL |
Long Range Mountains |
LIBERAL |
St. John’s East |
LIBERAL |
St. John’s South–Mount Pearl |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Prince Edward Island |
|
Cardigan |
LIBERAL |
Charlottetown |
LIBERAL |
Egmont |
LIBERAL |
Malpeque |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Nova Scotia |
|
Cape Breton–Canso |
LIBERAL |
Central Nova |
LIBERAL |
Cumberland–Colchester |
LIBERAL |
Dartmouth–Cole Harbour |
LIBERAL |
Halifax |
LIBERAL |
Halifax West |
LIBERAL |
Kings–Hants |
LIBERAL |
Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook |
LIBERAL |
South Shore–St. Margarets |
LIBERAL |
Sydney–Victoria |
LIBERAL |
West Nova |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
New Brunswick |
|
Acadie–Bathurst |
LIBERAL |
Beauséjour |
LIBERAL |
Fredericton |
LIBERAL |
Fundy Royal |
CONSERVATIVE |
Madawaska–Restigouche |
LIBERAL |
Miramichi–Grand Lake |
CONSERVATIVE |
Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe |
LIBERAL |
New Brunswick Southwest |
CONSERVATIVE |
Saint John–Rothesay |
LIBERAL |
Tobique–Mactaquac |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
North & West Quebec |
|
Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou |
BQ |
Abitibi–Témiscamingue |
BQ |
Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation |
LIBERAL |
Gatineau |
LIBERAL |
Hull–Aylmer |
LIBERAL |
Laurentides–Labelle |
BQ |
Pontiac |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Central Quebec & Mauricie |
|
Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel |
BQ |
Berthier–Maskinongé |
BQ |
Drummond |
BQ |
Joliette |
BQ |
Richmond–Arthabaska |
CONSERVATIVE |
Saint-Maurice–Champlain |
LIBERAL |
Trois-Rivières |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
Estrie & Chaudière-Appalaches |
|
Beauce |
CONSERVATIVE |
Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis |
CONSERVATIVE |
Compton–Stanstead |
LIBERAL |
Lévis–Lotbinière |
CONSERVATIVE |
Mégantic–L’Érable |
CONSERVATIVE |
Sherbrooke |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Island of Montreal |
|
Ahuntsic-Cartierville |
LIBERAL |
Bourassa |
LIBERAL |
Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle |
LIBERAL |
Hochelaga |
LIBERAL |
Honoré-Mercier |
LIBERAL |
La Pointe-de-l’Île |
BQ |
Lac-Saint-Louis |
LIBERAL |
LaSalle–Émard–Verdun |
LIBERAL |
Laurier–Sainte-Marie |
LIBERAL |
Mount Royal |
LIBERAL |
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount |
LIBERAL |
Outremont |
LIBERAL |
Papineau |
LIBERAL |
Pierrefonds–Dollard |
LIBERAL |
Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie |
NDP |
Saint-Laurent |
LIBERAL |
Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel |
LIBERAL |
Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs |
LIBERAL |
|
|
North Shore & Laval |
|
Alfred-Pellan |
LIBERAL |
Thérèse-De Blainville |
BQ |
Laval–Les Îles |
LIBERAL |
Mirabel |
BQ |
Montcalm |
BQ |
Repentigny |
BQ |
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles |
BQ |
Rivière-du-Nord |
BQ |
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin |
LIBERAL |
Terrebonne |
BQ |
Vimy |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Montérégie |
|
Beloeil–Chambly |
BQ |
Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères |
BQ |
Brome–Missisquoi |
LIBERAL |
Brossard–Saint-Lambert |
LIBERAL |
Châteauguay–Lacolle |
LIBERAL |
La Prairie |
BQ |
Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne |
LIBERAL |
Longueuil–Saint-Hubert |
BQ |
Montarville |
BQ |
Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot |
BQ |
Saint-Jean |
BQ |
Salaberry–Suroît |
BQ |
Shefford |
LIBERAL |
Vaudreuil–Soulanges |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Eastern Quebec |
|
Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia |
BQ |
Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques |
BQ |
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord |
CONSERVATIVE |
Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine |
LIBERAL |
Jonquière |
BQ |
Lac-Saint-Jean |
BQ |
Manicouagan |
BQ |
Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
Capitale-Nationale |
|
Beauport–Limoilou |
BQ |
Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles |
CONSERVATIVE |
Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d’Orléans–Charlevoix |
BQ |
Louis-Hébert |
LIBERAL |
Louis-Saint-Laurent |
CONSERVATIVE |
Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier |
CONSERVATIVE |
Québec |
BQ |
|
|
Durham & York |
|
Ajax |
LIBERAL |
Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill |
LIBERAL |
Durham |
CONSERVATIVE |
King–Vaughan |
LIBERAL |
Markham–Stouffville |
LIBERAL |
Markham–Thornhill |
LIBERAL |
Markham–Unionville |
CONSERVATIVE |
Newmarket–Aurora |
LIBERAL |
Oshawa |
CONSERVATIVE |
Pickering–Uxbridge |
LIBERAL |
Richmond Hill |
LIBERAL |
Thornhill |
CONSERVATIVE |
Vaughan–Woodbridge |
LIBERAL |
Whitby |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Northern Ontario |
|
Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing |
NDP |
Kenora |
CONSERVATIVE |
Nickel Belt |
LIBERAL |
Nipissing–Timiskaming |
LIBERAL |
Sault Ste. Marie |
LIBERAL |
Sudbury |
LIBERAL |
Thunder Bay–Rainy River |
LIBERAL |
Thunder Bay–Superior North |
LIBERAL |
Timmins–James Bay |
NDP |
|
|
Georgian Bay |
|
Barrie–Innisfil |
CONSERVATIVE |
Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte |
CONSERVATIVE |
Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound |
CONSERVATIVE |
Dufferin–Caledon |
CONSERVATIVE |
Parry Sound–Muskoka |
CONSERVATIVE |
Simcoe–Grey |
CONSERVATIVE |
Simcoe North |
CONSERVATIVE |
York–Simcoe |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
East & Central Ontario |
|
Bay of Quinte |
LIBERAL |
Glengarry–Prescott–Russell |
LIBERAL |
Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock |
CONSERVATIVE |
Hastings–Lennox and Addington |
LIBERAL |
Kingston and the Islands |
LIBERAL |
Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston |
CONSERVATIVE |
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes |
CONSERVATIVE |
Northumberland–Peterborough South |
LIBERAL |
Peterborough–Kawartha |
LIBERAL |
Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke |
CONSERVATIVE |
Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
Central Toronto |
|
Beaches–East York |
LIBERAL |
Davenport |
LIBERAL |
Don Valley West |
LIBERAL |
Eglinton–Lawrence |
LIBERAL |
Parkdale–High Park |
LIBERAL |
Toronto–St. Paul’s |
LIBERAL |
Spadina–Fort York |
NDP |
Toronto Centre |
LIBERAL |
Toronto–Danforth |
LIBERAL |
University–Rosedale |
LIBERAL |
York South–Weston |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Halton & Peel |
|
Brampton Centre |
LIBERAL |
Brampton East |
LIBERAL |
Brampton North |
LIBERAL |
Brampton South |
LIBERAL |
Brampton West |
LIBERAL |
Burlington |
LIBERAL |
Milton |
LIBERAL |
Mississauga Centre |
LIBERAL |
Mississauga East–Cooksville |
LIBERAL |
Mississauga–Erin Mills |
LIBERAL |
Mississauga–Lakeshore |
LIBERAL |
Mississauga–Malton |
LIBERAL |
Mississauga–Streetsville |
LIBERAL |
Oakville |
LIBERAL |
Oakville North–Burlington |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Grand River Valley |
|
Brantford–Brant |
LIBERAL |
Cambridge |
LIBERAL |
Guelph |
LIBERAL |
Haldimand–Norfolk |
CONSERVATIVE |
Kitchener Centre |
GREEN |
Kitchener–Conestoga |
LIBERAL |
Kitchener South–Hespeler |
LIBERAL |
Waterloo |
LIBERAL |
Wellington–Halton Hills |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
Southwestern Ontario |
|
Chatham-Kent–Leamington |
CONSERVATIVE |
Elgin–Middlesex–London |
CONSERVATIVE |
Essex |
CONSERVATIVE |
Huron–Bruce |
CONSERVATIVE |
Lambton–Kent–Middlesex |
CONSERVATIVE |
London–Fanshawe |
NDP |
London North Centre |
LIBERAL |
London West |
LIBERAL |
Oxford |
CONSERVATIVE |
Perth–Wellington |
CONSERVATIVE |
Sarnia–Lambton |
CONSERVATIVE |
Windsor–Tecumseh |
NDP |
Windsor West |
NDP |
|
|
Suburban Toronto |
|
Don Valley East |
LIBERAL |
Don Valley North |
LIBERAL |
Etobicoke Centre |
LIBERAL |
Etobicoke–Lakeshore |
LIBERAL |
Etobicoke North |
LIBERAL |
Scarborough–Agincourt |
LIBERAL |
Scarborough Centre |
LIBERAL |
Scarborough–Guildwood |
LIBERAL |
Scarborough North |
LIBERAL |
Scarborough–Rouge Park |
LIBERAL |
Scarborough Southwest |
LIBERAL |
Willowdale |
LIBERAL |
York Centre |
LIBERAL |
Humber River–Black Creek |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Hamilton & Niagara |
|
Flamborough–Glanbrook |
LIBERAL |
Hamilton Centre |
NDP |
Hamilton East–Stoney Creek |
LIBERAL |
Hamilton Mountain |
NDP |
Hamilton West—Ancaster–Dundas |
LIBERAL |
Niagara Centre |
LIBERAL |
Niagara Falls |
LIBERAL |
Niagara West |
CONSERVATIVE |
St. Catharines |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Ottawa |
|
Kanata–Carleton |
LIBERAL |
Nepean |
LIBERAL |
Ottawa Centre |
LIBERAL |
Orléans |
LIBERAL |
Ottawa South |
LIBERAL |
Ottawa–Vanier |
LIBERAL |
Ottawa West–Nepean |
LIBERAL |
Carleton |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
Rural Manitoba |
|
Brandon–Souris |
CONSERVATIVE |
Churchill–Keewatinook Aski |
NDP |
Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa |
CONSERVATIVE |
Portage–Lisgar |
CONSERVATIVE |
Provencher |
CONSERVATIVE |
Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
Winnipeg |
|
Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley |
LIBERAL |
Elmwood–Transcona |
NDP |
Kildonan–St. Paul |
CONSERVATIVE |
Saint Boniface–Saint Vital |
LIBERAL |
Winnipeg Centre |
NDP |
Winnipeg North |
LIBERAL |
Winnipeg South |
LIBERAL |
Winnipeg South Centre |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Saskatchewan |
|
Battlefords–Lloydminster |
CONSERVATIVE |
Cypress Hills–Grasslands |
CONSERVATIVE |
Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River |
CONSERVATIVE |
Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek |
CONSERVATIVE |
Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan |
CONSERVATIVE |
Prince Albert |
CONSERVATIVE |
Regina–Lewvan |
CONSERVATIVE |
Regina–Qu’Appelle |
CONSERVATIVE |
Regina–Wascana |
CONSERVATIVE |
Saskatoon–Grasswood |
CONSERVATIVE |
Saskatoon–University |
CONSERVATIVE |
Saskatoon West |
NDP |
Souris–Moose Mountain |
CONSERVATIVE |
Yorkton–Melville |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
Rural Alberta |
|
Banff–Airdrie |
CONSERVATIVE |
Battle River–Crowfoot |
CONSERVATIVE |
Bow River |
CONSERVATIVE |
Foothills |
CONSERVATIVE |
Fort McMurray–Cold Lake |
CONSERVATIVE |
Grande Prairie–Mackenzie |
CONSERVATIVE |
Lakeland |
CONSERVATIVE |
Lethbridge |
CONSERVATIVE |
Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner |
CONSERVATIVE |
Peace River–Westlock |
CONSERVATIVE |
Red Deer–Mountain View |
CONSERVATIVE |
Red Deer–Lacombe |
CONSERVATIVE |
Yellowhead |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
Calgary |
|
Calgary Centre |
CONSERVATIVE |
Calgary Confederation |
CONSERVATIVE |
Calgary Forest Lawn |
CONSERVATIVE |
Calgary Heritage |
CONSERVATIVE |
Calgary Midnapore |
CONSERVATIVE |
Calgary Nose Hill |
CONSERVATIVE |
Calgary Rocky Ridge |
CONSERVATIVE |
Calgary Shepard |
CONSERVATIVE |
Calgary Signal Hill |
CONSERVATIVE |
Calgary Skyview |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Edmonton |
|
Edmonton Centre |
LIBERAL |
Edmonton Griesbach |
CONSERVATIVE |
Edmonton Manning |
CONSERVATIVE |
Edmonton Mill Woods |
LIBERAL |
Edmonton Riverbend |
CONSERVATIVE |
Edmonton Strathcona |
NDP |
Edmonton West |
CONSERVATIVE |
Edmonton–Wetaskiwin |
CONSERVATIVE |
St. Albert–Edmonton |
CONSERVATIVE |
Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan |
CONSERVATIVE |
Sturgeon River–Parkland |
CONSERVATIVE |
|
|
BC Interior |
|
Abbotsford |
CONSERVATIVE |
Cariboo–Prince George |
CONSERVATIVE |
Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola |
CONSERVATIVE |
Chilliwack–Hope |
CONSERVATIVE |
Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo |
CONSERVATIVE |
Kelowna–Lake Country |
CONSERVATIVE |
Kootenay–Columbia |
CONSERVATIVE |
Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon |
CONSERVATIVE |
North Okanagan–Shuswap |
CONSERVATIVE |
Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies |
CONSERVATIVE |
Skeena–Bulkley Valley |
NDP |
South Okanagan–West Kootenay |
NDP |
|
|
Vancouver & Burnaby |
|
Burnaby North–Seymour |
LIBERAL |
Burnaby South |
NDP |
New Westminster–Burnaby |
NDP |
Vancouver Centre |
LIBERAL |
Vancouver East |
NDP |
Vancouver Granville |
NDP |
Vancouver Kingsway |
NDP |
Vancouver Quadra |
LIBERAL |
Vancouver South |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Vancouver suburbs |
|
Cloverdale–Langley City |
CONSERVATIVE |
Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam |
CONSERVATIVE |
Delta |
LIBERAL |
Fleetwood–Port Kells |
LIBERAL |
Langley–Aldergrove |
CONSERVATIVE |
North Vancouver |
LIBERAL |
Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge |
CONSERVATIVE |
Port Moody–Coquitlam |
NDP |
Richmond Centre |
CONSERVATIVE |
South Surrey–White Rock |
CONSERVATIVE |
Steveston–Richmond East |
CONSERVATIVE |
Surrey Centre |
LIBERAL |
Surrey–Newton |
LIBERAL |
West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country |
LIBERAL |
|
|
Vancouver Island |
|
Courtenay–Alberni |
NDP |
Cowichan–Malahat–Langford |
NDP |
Nanaimo–Ladysmith |
GREEN |
Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke |
NDP |
Saanich–Gulf Islands |
GREEN |
North Island–Powell River |
NDP |
Victoria |
NDP |
|
|
Territories |
|
Yukon |
CONSERVATIVE |
Northwest Territories |
LIBERAL |
Nunavut |
LIBERAL |
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