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Conservatives Open Up Six-Point Lead

CONSERVATIVES DRAWING SUPPORT FROM MEN UNDER 50

[Ottawa – May 19, 2022] The Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a six-point lead over the governing Liberal Party, a new EKOS Research survey has found. The current Conservative lead is being powered by robust support from men under the age of 50. Among decided voters, the Conservatives have 35.4% support, while the Liberals hold 29.2%. The New Democratic Party has 19.9% support and the Greens have 4.5%. The Bloc Québécois have 4.3% nationally, but 18.6% in Quebec.

“I do not think that I have ever seen the Conservatives do this well with men under 50 years old,” said Frank L. Graves, president of EKOS Research Associates. “That said, Conservative support is heavily concentrated in the right-wing populist segment of the population.”



Among men under the age of 35, the Conservatives have 44.3%, the Liberals have 22.2% and the NDP have 20.7%. And among men between the age of 35 and 49, the Conservatives have 47.1%, the Liberals are at 19.9% and the NDP have 20.4%.

“Meanwhile, younger women are leaning heavily to Jagmeet Singh and the NDP which leaves the Liberals gasping for air in the under 50 segment,” added Graves.


Implications for public health measures

“This new strength for the Conservatives has spilled over into other issues such as the unravelling of the erstwhile stable majority support for masks and passports,” added Graves. “Whether this is just the impacts of right wing authoritarian populism, disinformation, or the Pierre Poilievre leadership campaign is unclear, but things are definitely moving.”

In this survey, just over 60% said that they regularly wear a mask in public, down nearly eight percent when we asked this question just last week (67.8%). Support for a proof-of-vaccination system requiring Canadians to carry a passport to travel or attend public events is down four percent – from 44.7% to 40.7%.


“While pundits wring their hands at these forces and the rhetoric for the Poilievre campaign, it seems to be inversely proportional to the growing success for the Conservative Party recently,” concluded Graves.

Methodology:

This survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are May 13-17, 2022. In total, a random sample of 1,244 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

EKOS follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

Please click here for a copy of the data tables from this survey.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

11 comments to Conservatives Open Up Six-Point Lead

  • Craig

    I would think those results would be a weak Liberal minority or a narrow Conservative minority. That would be because the seat-rich areas around major metropolitan areas like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver would be almost exclusively Liberal with the education, class and regional gaps. It does also mean the Liberals would be pretty much wiped out beyond the major cities and the Conservatives would be winning most rural ridings with enormous margins. Not unlike in the US where rural areas are deep Trump country these days.

    I do think that, if Jean Charest becomes the leader, much of that support will evaporate and the PPC would skyrocket in the polls.

  • J.B.

    A general election isn’t for three years. I’m calling this an outlier for now rather than a harbinger of doom for the Liberals. This is probably a residual Doug Ford effect or the differentiation of methods (phone vs. internet panel) seen in the previous election.

    • JK

      5 of the last 7 polls across all polling firms have the conservatives in the lead, 3 of the last 7 polls have them up by 6 points yet you call this an outlier?

  • Very interesting to say the least.

  • Poilievre Supporter

    Look for Liberals to relax federal health measures as polls start to show that interest in the pandemic is waning. We all know they govern by poll rather than having any real values.

  • Serhei

    A likely elephant in the room re: ‘unraveling’ support for vaccine passports and mandates is the delay in requiring three doses for ‘fully vaccinated’ status. Have you done any polling on support/opposition for requiring a third dose for travel and public events?

  • Phil

    This shift is a direct result of Pierre Poilievre addressing the concerns of young people, the poor, and the working class, who have been completely ignored by all federal parties for years on end.

    Just wait to see what happens when he takes over as Leader of the Opposition…

  • Alex S.

    “This new strength for the Conservatives has spilled over into other issues such as the unravelling of the erstwhile stable majority support for masks and passports,” added Graves. “Whether this is just the impacts of right wing authoritarian populism, disinformation, or the Pierre Poilievre leadership campaign is unclear, but things are definitely moving.”

    Vaccine passports are the definition of right-wing authoritarian populism = a restrictive heavy handed measure that infringes on human rights in order to please the fearful populace. Twisting the definitions of the words to the point where they are meaningless has been a habitual thing these days.

  • T.C.

    A few observations as we’ve seen this before. Even with the difference in support, the Liberals win do to a vote rich area surrounding large cities. Even at 29% support they could maintain a comfortable minority. Unless their number in Ont drops below 30 we’ll probably end up with the same results.

    We’ve also seen many times the conservative support in the polls be significantly higher than the Liberals which get wiped out instantly by the smallest misstep

    The poll mentions the results amoung decided voters. Would be nice to see the % of undecided voters

  • Bruce Singh

    The vote rich Toronto area you’re forgetting that the 905 suburbs will reject Trudeau and the Liberals along with a few seats changing hands in the inner suburbs of Toronto such as Etobicoke, Scarborough etc. They are not solid Red by any stretch. Conservatives never had a candidate since Harper that could rally support.

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