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Ontario PCs Hold Clear Lead

SOME VOTER FLUIDITY EVIDENT

[Ottawa – May 24, 2022] The governing Progressive Conservatives remain in the lead as the Ontario election heads into its final turn, a new EKOS Research survey has found.

The PCs have 34.5% support among decided voters, while the Liberals command 26.7% support. The New Democratic Party enjoys 24.1% support and the Greens have 6.6%.

“Doug Ford is on a clear path to form government with eight days to go,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS. “What remains open is whether it will be a stable majority or a less stable minority”.

In earlier EKOS polling completed from May 13 to 17, the PCs enjoyed a commanding 41 to 24% lead over the Liberals and NDP.

The survey also found that the New Blue Party is at 5.3% support.

“The New Blue Party could be a critical factor in deciding whether the Doug Ford achieves the majority he is seeking”, added Graves.


Favourability ratings

Another interesting finding from the survey is that neither Doug Ford, Andrea Horwath, nor Steven Del Duca have more than a quarter of Ontarians saying they have a favourable opinion of them.

Doug Ford fares the best, with 23.1% saying they have a favourable opinion of him. But this contrasted with 52.6% saying that they have an unfavourable opinion. One in five (22.2%) say that they have a favourable opinion of Andrea Horwath, while 14.4% have favourable opinion of Del Duca.

“What remains to be seen is whether Ford’s support is eroding from the past week or not,” added Graves. “But he is doing very well among men, in the Greater Toronto Area, those without a university degree, and the upper class.”

“This may link to the sense of greater benefit from the Ford framing of their approach to the economy”.

Methodology:

The survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are May 20-22, 2022. In total, a random sample of 948 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

EKOS follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

Please click here for a copy of the data tables from this survey.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

Please click here for a copy of the data tables from the May 13-17 survey.

1 comment to Ontario PCs Hold Clear Lead

  • Joslynn

    I might have missed it (easy to do when I read such a plethora of information; on a smallish phone screen) for the readers to see the corresponding values of Poor, Working, Middle and Upper Class Income$ (and maybe even where in Ontario they live) when you created the Social Demographic graph.

    Thank you,
    Jos

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