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Progressive Conservatives Hold Seven-Point Lead

[Ottawa – May 26, 2022] The Progressive Conservatives maintain a seven-point lead over the Ontario Liberal Party, a new EKOS Research poll has found. Among decided and leading voters, the Progressive Conservatives has 33.7% support (-0.8% from EKOS last published poll on Tuesday), while the Ontario Liberals have 26.9% (+0.3%). The New Democrats find themselves with 23.8% (-2.1%). The Green Party come in with 8% while the New Blue Party have 4.7%.


The most notable finding from this survey is that PCs find themselves effectively in statistical three way tie with the Liberals and the NDP, but the Liberals have a three-point lead in the Greater Toronto Area. The PCs have significant leads in Eastern Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and Central Ontario.

The PCs have a nearly a twenty-point lead among men, while the Liberals (31.5%) have nearly a three point lead over the NDP (28.8%) among women with the PCs in third. Interestingly enough, the PCs lead among all age groups over both the Liberals and the NDP. However their lead among Ontarians under the age of 35 is only half a point over the NDP.


The PCs also have commanding leads with Ontarians with a high school diploma or less (48.7% to 29.2% for the NDP), and those with a college diploma (38.6% to 22.9% for the NDP). The Liberals have a four-point lead over the PCs among those with a college degree. While the NDP have nearly a five-point lead over the PCs among Ontarians who self-identify as poor, the PCs lead in all other self-identified social classes. Most notably, they have just over a sixteen-point lead over the Liberals among those who classify themselves as rich.

Methodology:

The survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are May 23-25, 2022. In total, a random sample of 1,017 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

EKOS follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

Please click here for a copy of the data tables for this survey.

1 comment to Progressive Conservatives Hold Seven-Point Lead

  • Randi

    Why is it that you have a hyperlink to the questions in the survey but then when clicking on it, the current hyperlink does not end up providing list of questions as stated above. Also.. why is your ‘leave a reply’ section white font on a white background? That is odd and seem like a great way to have people think it also isn’t working correctly. Maybe you should fix these things? AI literally had to type this out and highlight the entire comment to make sure I spelled everything correctly and that it made ssense. I don’t believe it should ever be this difficult to make a comment that is respectable and not rude.

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