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EKOS Predicts PC Majority

[Ottawa – June 1, 2022] As Ontarians go to the polls tomorrow, the governing Progressive Conservatives have a 12-point lead over both the Liberals and the NDP, the final EKOS Research survey of the 2022 provincial election has found. Among decided and leaning voters, the Progressive Conservatives led by Doug Ford have 37.0% support. The Liberals (24.7%) and the New Democrats (23.5%) are statistically tied. The Greens led by Mike Schreiner have 8.7%, while the New Blue Party comes in with 4.4%.

“The PCs are headed for a majority government and likely will capture a smaller share of the popular vote than in 2018,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research. “This will happen thanks to a severe fragmentation of the centre-left vote between the Liberals and the NDP.”

Graves highlighted the differences in the union vote as to why the centre-left vote failed to coalesce around one party.

“Early interventions by some unions seemed to lift PC fortunes with private unions, although this has faded somewhat,” said Graves. “More recently, there is clear evidence that the union votes – both private and public – have bolstered NDP fortunes.”

The PCs will win the next election thanks to robust support among men (46%) and having significant leads in every age cohort except for Ontarians over the age of 65, where they find themselves in a statistical tie with the Liberals.

“Our past survey work has shown that Doug Ford has very tepid favourability ratings, so much so that a sizable chunk of his supporters do not view him favourably,” added Graves.

“But Ford does perform slightly better than Andrea Horwath and Steven Del Duca,” Graves continued. “So what likely happened is that the voters see Ford as the best of a bad bunch.”

EKOS’ riding projections have the PCs winning 76 seats, the NDP 30, the Liberals 17, and the Greens 1.

PC

NDP

LIBERAL

GREEN

OTHER

76

30

17

1

0

Our riding projections are based on our findings that the PCs have strong support in every region across the province. PCs are in a statistical tie (31% to 33%) with the Liberals in Toronto – their weakest region traditionally. But they have robust leads in the Greater Toronto Area, Southwestern Ontario, and Central Ontario.

But Graves cautions that there is a significant lack of enthusiasm among PC supporters in this election.

“We find the PCs are underrepresented in the advance vote despite being on track to win a second majority,” he continued. “The combination of ambivalence about Ford and knowledge that he will get re-elected may further dampen turnout.”

Methodology:

The survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are May 30-June 1, 2022. In total, a random sample of 1,430 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and vaccination status to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

EKOS follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

Please click here for a copy of the data tables for this survey.

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