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EKOS Seat Projection

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn and Joseph Angolano who were the principal investigators in creating this seat forecast.

[Ottawa – June 1, 2022] It’s that time again, it’s election day! And as we did in the last Ontario election, we are going to be bold and once again do a seat-by-seat prediction of today’s provincial election in Ontario. After crunching the numbers, it looks clear that the Progressive Conservatives will win a majority government. They have a 12-point lead in the popular vote and, thanks to a beneficial vote distribution, will in all likelihood win a large majority of the seats.

PC

NDP

LIBERAL

GREEN

OTHER

76

30

17

1

0

Riding-by-riding forecasts:

NORTHERN ONTARIO

FORECAST

Algoma—Manitoulin

NDP

Kenora—Rainy River

PC

Kiiwetinoong

NDP

Mushkegowuk—James Bay

NDP

Nickel Belt

NDP

Nipissing

PC

Sault Ste. Marie

PC

Sudbury

NDP

Thunder Bay—Atikokan

LIBERAL

Thunder Bay—Superior North

LIBERAL

Timiskaming—Cochrane

NDP

Timmins

NDP

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

FORECAST

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

PC

Elgin—Middlesex—London

PC

Essex

PC

Huron—Bruce

PC

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

PC

London—Fanshawe

NDP

London North Centre

NDP

London West

NDP

Oxford

PC

Perth—Wellington

PC

Sarnia—Lambton

PC

Windsor—Tecumseh

NDP

Windsor West

NDP

GRAND RIVER VALLEY

FORECAST

Brantford—Brant

PC

Cambridge

PC

Guelph

GREEN

Haldimand—Norfolk

PC

Kitchener Centre

NDP

Kitchener—Conestoga

PC

Kitchener South—Hespeler

PC

Waterloo

NDP

Wellington—Halton Hills

PC

HAMILTON / NIAGARA

FORECAST

Flamborough—Glanbrook

PC

Hamilton Centre

NDP

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

PC

Hamilton Mountain

NDP

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

NDP

Niagara Centre

NDP

Niagara Falls

NDP

Niagara West

PC

St. Catharines

NDP

GEORGIAN BAY

FORECAST

Barrie—Innisfil

PC

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

PC

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

PC

Dufferin—Caledon

PC

Parry Sound—Muskoka

PC

Simcoe—Grey

PC

Simcoe North

PC

York—Simcoe

PC

HALTON / PEEL

FORECAST

Brampton Centre

PC

Brampton East

NDP

Brampton North

PC

Brampton South

PC

Brampton West

PC

Burlington

PC

Milton

PC

Mississauga Centre

PC

Mississauga East—Cooksville

PC

Mississauga—Erin Mills

PC

Mississauga—Lakeshore

LIBERAL

Mississauga—Malton

PC

Mississauga—Streetsville

LIBERAL

Oakville

PC

Oakville North—Burlington

PC

YORK / DURHAM

FORECAST

Ajax

LIBERAL

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

PC

Durham

PC

King—Vaughan

PC

Markham—Stouffville

PC

Markham—Thornhill

PC

Markham—Unionville

PC

Newmarket—Aurora

PC

Oshawa

NDP

Pickering—Uxbridge

PC

Richmond Hill

PC

Thornhill

PC

Vaughan—Woodbridge

PC

Whitby

PC

OUTER TORONTO

FORECAST

Don Valley East

LIBERAL

Don Valley North

PC

Etobicoke Centre

PC

Etobicoke North

PC

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

PC

Humber River—Back Creek

LIBERAL

Scarborough Centre

PC

Scarborough North

PC

Scarborough Southwest

NDP

Scarborough—Agincourt

PC

Scarborough—Guildwood

LIBERAL

Scarborough—Rouge Park

PC

Willowdale

PC

York Centre

PC

CENTRAL TORONTO

FORECAST

Beaches—East York

LIBERAL

Davenport

NDP

Don Valley West

LIBERAL

Eglinton—Lawrence

LIBERAL

Parkdale—High Park

NDP

Spadina—Fort York

NDP

Toronto Centre

NDP

Toronto—St. Paul’s

LIBERAL

Toronto—Danforth

NDP

University—Rosedale

NDP

York South—Weston

PC

EAST & CENTRAL ONTARIO

FORECAST

Bay of Quinte

PC

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

LIBERAL

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

PC

Hastings—Lennox and Addington

PC

Kingston and the Islands

LIBERAL

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

PC

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

PC

Northumberland—Peterborough South

PC

Peterborough—Kawartha

PC

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

PC

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

PC

OTTAWA

FORECAST

Carleton

PC

Kanata—Carleton

PC

Nepean

PC

Orléans

LIBERAL

Ottawa Centre

NDP

Ottawa South

LIBERAL

Ottawa—Vanier

LIBERAL

Ottawa West—Nepean

PC

4 comments to EKOS Seat Projection

  • Colleen

    Peel suffered so much during Covid. So many deaths, so much illness. Yet here we are re-electing the party that managed its response so it could keep the supply chain running on the backs & coffins of Peel workers.

  • Ruth

    This is VERY DEPRESSING.

  • dino

    The vote splitting between the Liberals and NDP has to stop, they must form a united coalition. Adam Van Koeverden is going to be the new Leader of the Liberal Party of Ontario, he is young, articulate and very likeable and has no connection to kathleen wynne.

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