Special thanks go to Earl Washburn and Joseph Angolano who were the principal investigators in creating this seat forecast.
[Ottawa – June 1, 2022] It’s that time again, it’s election day! And as we did in the last Ontario election, we are going to be bold and once again do a seat-by-seat prediction of today’s provincial election in Ontario. After crunching the numbers, it looks clear that the Progressive Conservatives will win a majority government. They have a 12-point lead in the popular vote and, thanks to a beneficial vote distribution, will in all likelihood win a large majority of the seats.
|
PC |
NDP |
LIBERAL |
GREEN |
OTHER |
|
76 |
30 |
17 |
1 |
0 |
Riding-by-riding forecasts:
|
NORTHERN ONTARIO |
FORECAST |
|
Algoma—Manitoulin |
NDP |
|
Kenora—Rainy River |
PC |
|
Kiiwetinoong |
NDP |
|
Mushkegowuk—James Bay |
NDP |
|
Nickel Belt |
NDP |
|
Nipissing |
PC |
|
Sault Ste. Marie |
PC |
|
Sudbury |
NDP |
|
Thunder Bay—Atikokan |
LIBERAL |
|
Thunder Bay—Superior North |
LIBERAL |
|
Timiskaming—Cochrane |
NDP |
|
Timmins |
NDP |
|
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO |
FORECAST |
|
Chatham-Kent—Leamington |
PC |
|
Elgin—Middlesex—London |
PC |
|
Essex |
PC |
|
Huron—Bruce |
PC |
|
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex |
PC |
|
London—Fanshawe |
NDP |
|
London North Centre |
NDP |
|
London West |
NDP |
|
Oxford |
PC |
|
Perth—Wellington |
PC |
|
Sarnia—Lambton |
PC |
|
Windsor—Tecumseh |
NDP |
|
Windsor West |
NDP |
|
GRAND RIVER VALLEY |
FORECAST |
|
Brantford—Brant |
PC |
|
Cambridge |
PC |
|
Guelph |
GREEN |
|
Haldimand—Norfolk |
PC |
|
Kitchener Centre |
NDP |
|
Kitchener—Conestoga |
PC |
|
Kitchener South—Hespeler |
PC |
|
Waterloo |
NDP |
|
Wellington—Halton Hills |
PC |
|
HAMILTON / NIAGARA |
FORECAST |
|
Flamborough—Glanbrook |
PC |
|
Hamilton Centre |
NDP |
|
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek |
PC |
|
Hamilton Mountain |
NDP |
|
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas |
NDP |
|
Niagara Centre |
NDP |
|
Niagara Falls |
NDP |
|
Niagara West |
PC |
|
St. Catharines |
NDP |
|
GEORGIAN BAY |
FORECAST |
|
Barrie—Innisfil |
PC |
|
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte |
PC |
|
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound |
PC |
|
Dufferin—Caledon |
PC |
|
Parry Sound—Muskoka |
PC |
|
Simcoe—Grey |
PC |
|
Simcoe North |
PC |
|
York—Simcoe |
PC |
|
HALTON / PEEL |
FORECAST |
|
Brampton Centre |
PC |
|
Brampton East |
NDP |
|
Brampton North |
PC |
|
Brampton South |
PC |
|
Brampton West |
PC |
|
Burlington |
PC |
|
Milton |
PC |
|
Mississauga Centre |
PC |
|
Mississauga East—Cooksville |
PC |
|
Mississauga—Erin Mills |
PC |
|
Mississauga—Lakeshore |
LIBERAL |
|
Mississauga—Malton |
PC |
|
Mississauga—Streetsville |
LIBERAL |
|
Oakville |
PC |
|
Oakville North—Burlington |
PC |
|
YORK / DURHAM |
FORECAST |
|
Ajax |
LIBERAL |
|
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill |
PC |
|
Durham |
PC |
|
King—Vaughan |
PC |
|
Markham—Stouffville |
PC |
|
Markham—Thornhill |
PC |
|
Markham—Unionville |
PC |
|
Newmarket—Aurora |
PC |
|
Oshawa |
NDP |
|
Pickering—Uxbridge |
PC |
|
Richmond Hill |
PC |
|
Thornhill |
PC |
|
Vaughan—Woodbridge |
PC |
|
Whitby |
PC |
|
OUTER TORONTO |
FORECAST |
|
Don Valley East |
LIBERAL |
|
Don Valley North |
PC |
|
Etobicoke Centre |
PC |
|
Etobicoke North |
PC |
|
Etobicoke—Lakeshore |
PC |
|
Humber River—Back Creek |
LIBERAL |
|
Scarborough Centre |
PC |
|
Scarborough North |
PC |
|
Scarborough Southwest |
NDP |
|
Scarborough—Agincourt |
PC |
|
Scarborough—Guildwood |
LIBERAL |
|
Scarborough—Rouge Park |
PC |
|
Willowdale |
PC |
|
York Centre |
PC |
|
CENTRAL TORONTO |
FORECAST |
|
Beaches—East York |
LIBERAL |
|
Davenport |
NDP |
|
Don Valley West |
LIBERAL |
|
Eglinton—Lawrence |
LIBERAL |
|
Parkdale—High Park |
NDP |
|
Spadina—Fort York |
NDP |
|
Toronto Centre |
NDP |
|
Toronto—St. Paul’s |
LIBERAL |
|
Toronto—Danforth |
NDP |
|
University—Rosedale |
NDP |
|
York South—Weston |
PC |
|
EAST & CENTRAL ONTARIO |
FORECAST |
|
Bay of Quinte |
PC |
|
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell |
LIBERAL |
|
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock |
PC |
|
Hastings—Lennox and Addington |
PC |
|
Kingston and the Islands |
LIBERAL |
|
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston |
PC |
|
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes |
PC |
|
Northumberland—Peterborough South |
PC |
|
Peterborough—Kawartha |
PC |
|
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke |
PC |
|
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry |
PC |
|
OTTAWA |
FORECAST |
|
Carleton |
PC |
|
Kanata—Carleton |
PC |
|
Nepean |
PC |
|
Orléans |
LIBERAL |
|
Ottawa Centre |
NDP |
|
Ottawa South |
LIBERAL |
|
Ottawa—Vanier |
LIBERAL |
|
Ottawa West—Nepean |
PC |
Peel suffered so much during Covid. So many deaths, so much illness. Yet here we are re-electing the party that managed its response so it could keep the supply chain running on the backs & coffins of Peel workers.
This is VERY DEPRESSING.
The vote splitting between the Liberals and NDP has to stop, they must form a united coalition. Adam Van Koeverden is going to be the new Leader of the Liberal Party of Ontario, he is young, articulate and very likeable and has no connection to kathleen wynne.
Time to move.