About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Political Landscape on Verge of Potential Election

[Ottawa – July 22, 2021] As Canadians begin to seriously ponder the end of the biggest crisis in modern history, they are hearing increased chatter about an imminent election. In this brief update, we look at the current voter landscape and recent shifts. What do they tell us about the range of possible outcomes of an election? We also thought that, given the salience of this once-in-a-lifetime crisis, we would connect voting intentions to the issue of vaccine roll-out and the possible end of the pandemic. These linkages are important and could become a force in shaping the final outcome of a possible election. [More...]

Politics and Pandemic

[Ottawa – June 16, 2021] As the public begin to believe that the worst of the pandemic is now behind us, it is interesting to chart where the voter landscape is today. Talk of elections is in the air and there are important linkages between the voter landscape and the pandemic. No issue rivals the pandemic in salience for the public and the sense that the worst is over may well be working in favour of the incumbent Liberals. [More...]

Previously Frozen Political Landscape Now Moving in Favour of Liberals

[Ottawa – May 7, 2021] In a new poll, the relative stability of the political landscape appears to have been disrupted by a sharp rise in public belief that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. As vaccine rollout rises dramatically, the fortunes of the Conservative Party, who had staked out a view that the vaccine rollout was going to be calamitously distant in the future, are falling in lockstep. [More...]

Public Attitudes to Paid Sick Leave in Ontario

As Ontario struggles to contain the third wave of COVID-19, the issue of paid sick leave has become more topical than ever. Workplaces have been a major source of COVID-19 infections and the lack of paid sick days – particularly among essential workers – has direct implications for containing its spread. The purpose of this survey is to gauge public attitudes toward mandating paid sick leave benefits in Ontario. [More...]

Online Hate

[Ottawa – March 23, 2021] EKOS Research Associates conducted a Canada-wide interactive voice response (IVR) poll of 1,230 Canadians, 18 years of age or older for the Canadian Anti-Hate Network. The survey was conducted to gauge how big of a problem Canadians believe online hate is in Canada, and the support for different types of anti-hate regulations on social media platforms. [More...]

Liberals Hold Steady Lead

[Ottawa – January 29, 2021] It appears neither the arrival of multiple effective COVID-19 vaccines nor fears of potential vaccine shortages have impacted the federal horserace. At 34 points, the Liberals hold a small, but stable lead over the Conservatives who, at 31 points, have not seen any real movement in over a year. The NDP remain in third place at 15 points. [More...]

Pandemic, Polarization, and Expectations for Government

As the pandemic continues to exert its fierce grip on Canada we are seeing some important shifts in public outlook. In this release, we summarize some of these key shifts based on a very large probability sample of some 5,200 Canadians polled from November 13 to the 26nd. The research shows the impact of two critical new developments working in largely opposite directions; deep and rising gloom about a much worse than expected second wave and a new recognition that safe and effective vaccines have been developed. These contradictory forces are reshaping public expectations for the coming months. They are also revealing a stark polarization of the public with a strengthened majority now saying governments should be tougher and more uniform in their responses to ensure that deaths and disabilities that would be rendered wasted once vaccines are rolled out are not needlessly sacrificed in this waiting period. On the other hand, a strongly opposed group of those protesting loss of freedom, anti-mask and anti-vax outlooks have shifted from tepid compliance to outright defiance. [More...]

Liberals Hold Stable Lead

As the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic rages on, the Liberal Party holds a stable lead over the Conservatives. At 35 points, Liberal support has scarcely budged since the summer. If the public are disappointed over potential delays in rolling out a vaccine, their discontent does appear to be translating into votes. [More...]

The Coming Transformation: Open or Ordered?

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to The Recovery Summit on September 17, 2020. [More...]

The Trump Paradox?

[Ottawa – August 27, 2020] With the U.S. presidential election just around the corner, we would like to offer some insights into what might be the most important election in modern history. Our objective is not to contribute to the plethora of horserace polling that is already out there (in fact, we are concerned about the underrepresentation of cellphone respondents in our sample). Rather, our goal here is to offer perspective on the underlying forces affecting this election. [More...]

Ordered Populism and Implications for the 2020 Presidential Election

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to The Pollsters’ Survival Kit In The World of Trump, hosted by ESOMAR and the Canadian Research Insights Council on August 20, 2020. [More...]

WE Charity Scandal Had Clear Impact but May Be Dissipating

[Ottawa – July 25, 2020] The WE Charity Scandal appears to be registering and the federal horserace has tightened significantly. The 11-point lead the Liberals enjoyed a month ago has shrunk to just five points. However, there is evidence that the impacts of the scandal are already beginning to dissipate; at 35 points, the Liberals are up two points from our previous poll. [More...]

CAQ Holds Massive Lead in Quebec

[Ottawa – July 3, 2020] Quebec’s governing party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) enjoys a huge lead over the opposition Liberals. Nearly six out of ten (59%) decided voters in the province say they would vote for the CAQ, led by premier François Legault. The CAQ enjoys an unprecedented 40-point lead over the Liberals, who are in a distant second place at 19 points. There appears to be no honeymoon period for the Liberals and their new leader Dominique Anglade, who was acclaimed to the leadership of the party in May. Meanwhile, Quebec solidaire and the Parti Québécois (PQ) are in a statistical tie for third place at 9 and 8 points respectively. The PQ is currently under the interim leadership of Pascal Bérubé until they elect a new leader in August. For the CAQ, this represents a large boost in their support from the 2018 election, which saw them win 37% of the vote en route to a majority government. The remaining three parties have dropped since the 2018 election. The Liberals are down six points from the 25% they won in 2018, the PQ is down nine points and Quebec solidaire is down seven points. [More...]

Northern Populism

This paper examines the issue of whether or not authoritarian populism — or what we prefer to label ordered populism — is a force in Canada. There is clear evidence in the international literature that this force has been a critical factor in explaining the rise of Donald Trump in America, Brexit in the United Kingdom and similar examples in other advanced Western democracies. The paper attempts to clarify the key concepts under discussion based on a cursory review of the recent and historical literature. Using this literature, we identify the key forces that seem to be linked to the emergence of ordered populism in other societies. These include economic stagnation and the rising concentration of wealth at the top of the social system, a magnified sense of external risk, a cultural backlash against the loss of core values for those embracing this outlook, and a wide sense of normative tension that the broadest direction of society is moving in the wrong direction. [More...]

Update on the Political Landscape and the Issues of Race, Policing, and the Three Ms in the Canada-China Affair

[Ottawa – June 26, 2020] As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the Liberal Party is in full majority mode. At just under 41 points, the Liberals enjoy a wider lead today than on election night 2015, which saw the party win a decisive majority mandate. The Conservatives trail at 30 points and the NDP remains in a distant third place at just 13 points. [More...]

Statement from EKOS Research Associates

[Ottawa – May 25, 2020] A recent headline based on a survey conducted by EKOS Research Associates reported that a majority of Ottawa residents oppose city boundary expansion, which seems to conflict with earlier research where we found that Ottawa residents are looking for a balance of intensification and expansion. We believe that the underlying data are accurately presented in both surveys and we stand by our original conclusion. However, we would like to address this apparent contradiction. [More...]

Ottawa Residents Have Concerns Over Proposed Boundary Expansion

[Ottawa – May 25, 2020] Ottawa residents are expressing concerns over City staff’s recommendation to expand Ottawa’s urban boundary by up to 1,650 hectares. In a survey of 525 Ottawa residents, seven in ten (70 per cent) say such a move will put additional pressure on City services, and a similar proportion (69 per cent) feel this plan will increase greenhouse gas emissions in the region. More that half say the plan will also lead to greater traffic congestion (55 per cent) and higher taxes for City residents (55 per cent). The perception that taxes would increase is most strongly tied to opposition for such an expansion. [More...]

A Future History of the COVID-19 Crisis

[Ottawa – May 12, 2020] As Canadians continue to work their way through the COVID-19 pandemic, we would like to take the opportunity to present an update of how the public see this crisis evolving. We begin with an update on the federal political landscape, which provides an important means for understanding how views on the pandemic are linked to partisanship and other factors. However, our main purpose is to understand how this crisis is playing out in the public’s mind and how they see the future of Canada and the world unfolding. [More...]

Ottawans Looking for Mix of Intensification and Boundary Expansion to Ensure Housing Affordability

A survey of 770 Ottawa residents reveals that housing is becoming increasingly unaffordable for Ottawa residents. Half of homeowners report they could not afford their current home if they were house shopping for the first time today and few respondents think their children will be able to afford a home. This has left many residents looking for alternative solutions and forty per cent of Ottawa residents would consider commuting 30 minutes to a nearby town in order to buy a home. [More...]

COVID-19 Produces Pervasive and Strong Anxiety

[Ottawa – March 27, 2020] Canadians are unified in seeing the COVID-19 pandemic as the challenge of a lifetime. Most Canadians say it eclipses the September 11th attacks in terms of severity and this sense of urgency rose during our field period. Overall, 73 per cent think this is the most serious challenge Canada has faced in 50 years (only 12 per cent disagreed). This sense of historic urgency rose form 70 per cent to 75 per cent over the week of polling. [More...]