About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Conservatives and Liberals Locked in Dead Heat


[Ottawa – February 20, 2015] The only thing hot about frigid Canada right now is the dead heat capturing the political landscape. There are some movements, but they are more of the twitch variety than structural movements. At the fringes, the electorate seems to be lurching around like a drunken monkey, but the new normal of a deadlocked Conservative/Liberal race seems to be a stable undercurrent. The Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie at thirty two points each, with the NDP trailing at 18.

Conservatives Slide Slightly: Is the Terror Card Losing Force?

[Ottawa – February 13, 2015] In a week blissfully free of any new terror atrocities, it appears that the security wave which propelled Stephen Harper into a clear lead has lost momentum. The Conservatives have declined three points and the Liberals have risen (an insignificant two points). In examining the demographic and regional shifts, which are modest, it fits with the hypothesis that the lower salience of security in a week with no beheadings or burnings is the factor underlying this modest but statistically significant shift.


Conservatives Now Polling Higher than in Final Stages of 2011 Campaign


[Ottawa – February 5, 2015] Any doubts about the authenticity and durability of the Conservative Party’s improvement in political fortunes from last fall can now be effectively dispelled. The Conservatives have erased a 12-point Liberal lead and now enjoy a modest but stable and apparently growing lead of three points. The 35-point level is there best poll since 2011 and it is higher than where we had them in the final stages of the 2011 election campaign, which resulted in a majority victory. Although these trends have been gentle… [More...]

Landscape Frozen as We Enter Election Year

[Ottawa – January 16, 2015] The political landscape appears as frozen as Canada is. The Liberals hold a slight but statistically significant lead, while the Conservatives appear to have stabilized at 31 points, which is good news for a party that hadn’t broken 30 points in two years. So all in all, there isn’t much going on as we enter a new election year. Nevertheless, there are some interesting signals and harbingers worth watching. And sometimes, the absence of movement is notable in itself.

In particular, there are two fundamentally different views on the economy that will be critical… [More...]

Final Update 2014: Harper’s late year bubble may have burst?

[Ottawa – December 23, 2014] In our final poll of 2014 the Liberals have rebounded somewhat to open up a small but significant four-point lead. This ensures that the Liberals will complete the year with never once surrendering the lead and in a position which nearly doubles their disastrous outing in 2011. While the Conservatives have drawn into a very competitive position the bounce that they received from the security episodes of the late fall appears to be fading. The next few months of what will be an increasingly intense pre-campaign period will tell us whether the CPC surge was… [More...]

It Is Neck and Neck as We Head into Election Year

[Ottawa – December 15, 2014] Yet another new normal has set into the Canadian political landscape as we head into an election year. Some unexpected events have altered the last normal which saw the rejuvenated Liberal Party – led by Justin Trudeau – clearly in the driver’s seat and on the cusp of what would likely have been a majority government (had those numbers persisted to Election Day). A renewed security focus and other events following the shootings in Ottawa have produced a virtual deadlock between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Through a combination of propitious events and sound… [More...]

Dramatically Tightened Race as Conservatives Crack 30-Barrier for First Time Since Late 2012:


[Ottawa – November 7, 2014] The political landscape looks very different in the aftermath of the shootings of two weeks ago. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have seen their fairly solid and stable 12-point lead collapse into a much less comfortable three-point lead. A longstanding shift away from the security agenda as a priority has seen a dramatic rebalancing of the security/civil liberty fulcrum. This has propelled Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party to heights it hasn’t seen in nearly two years and redrawn the political calculus around election timing. The Liberals and the… [More...]

Race Tightens as We See Security Shifts in a More Anxious Public?

[Ottawa – October 31, 2014] The impacts of the tragic deaths of two Canadian soldiers appear to be affecting the political landscape in a highly significant fashion. While not entirely unexpected, the clarity and significance of the effects may be altering the political calculus around an early election.

From our latest poll, the following points are clear:

  1. The race has tightened significantly with the Liberal lead now cut in half and the Conservative Party now clearly ahead of the NDP.
  2. While his approval rating remains mired below 30 points, Mr. Harper has seen some softening of

One Year Out: A New Normal with Considerable Room for Further Change

[Ottawa – October 19, 2014] It is exactly one year to the day until the 2015 election and the country remains in a funk, with unusually poor ratings of both national and federal government direction. Outside of the diminished Conservative base, the vast majority think both the country and the federal government are moving in the wrong direction. While our most recent poll has shown a slight uptick in federal direction, is not meaningful and the Conservative Party remains mired at 26 points in vote intention.

Political Landscape Turning Bleak for Stephen Harper

[Ottawa – August 10, 2014] As part of a pretty comprehensive diagnostic poll on a range of current issues, we have conducted an update of the political landscape in Canada. There is nothing particularly remarkable about these results, but put in context with the overall time series which precedes it, and some of the other more probing questions we will be releasing later, this poll really does not augur well for the Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party.

This poll does, however, reinforce the notion that the now profound lead enjoyed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is far from… [More...]

If You Can’t Even Get a Dead Cat Bounce Out of This, Your Nine Lives May Be Up


[Ottawa – May 2, 2014] The period of the past few weeks has been an unusually auspicious one for Stephen Harper and his government. The more or less regular cacophony of critical commentary which has characterised the past year of his regime’s dealings with media, opposition, and critics was temporary displaced by a series of surprising events.

First, the untimely and tragic death of Jim Flaherty and the suspension of typical parliamentary invective was replaced with a dignified, non-partisan celebration of his life and achievements including… [More...]

What is Really Going on with the Federal Political Landscape?


[Ottawa – April 11, 2014] Using an unusually large random probability sample (4,134 Canadian adults), which covers the on- and offline segments of Canada’s population, as well as both those who rely on landlines and cell phones, we can chart where the voter landscape is right now. Our data also provide methods for analyzing voter mobility since the last election. Coupled with basic barometers of approval and dominant issue tracking, we can get an excellent fix on where the voters are today and how they arrived where they are today… [More...]

Stephen Harper Plumbing Record Lows on Trust, Direction, and Approval


[Ottawa – October 29, 2013] The recent Senate spending scandal is registering strongly with voters and shaping up to be a truly frightening shock to this government’s prospects as they try to hit the reset button in lead up to their Halloween Eve convention. It comes on the heels of a series of setbacks which finds the government in its most precarious position since it assumed office some seven plus years ago.

It is important to remember, however, that Stephen Harper has come back before and it would be foolish to… [More...]

Canadians Noticing Mulcair… and Warming to Him


[Ottawa – July 23, 2013] If there has been one issue plaguing Thomas Mulcair since he was elected Leader of the NDP more than a year ago, it is not the “Angry Tom” label used by his political opponents, nor it is his questionable driving tactics. Rather, it is simply that Canadians are not familiar with him. For months, when asked whether they approve or disapprove of his performance, nearly half of Canadians have not felt confident enough to express an opinion.

EKOS Poll: May 2013

May 2013

Click here for a PDF version of these charts: EKOS Poll (May 2013)

This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. We used a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research.

The field dates for this survey are May 22-26, 2013. In total, a random sample of 3,318 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 2,662 decided voters). The margin of error… [More...]

Mr. Mulcair Has a Bit of a Loyalty Problem – April 16, 2013

[Ottawa – April 16, 2013] Fidelity isn’t one of the strong points of Canadian voters but Thomas Mulcair seems to be suffering a bit of a loyalty problem with his new party.

A year after assuming the leadership of the NDP and the office of the leader of opposition, he is experiencing significant difficulties. He hasn’t seen anything in the polls which could be termed a disastrous or precipitous fall — but he has seen a slow slide which will become a disaster if it isn’t corrected.

He remains what would have been unimaginable just two years ago… [More...]

The Trudeau Effect – April 14, 2013


[Ottawa – April 14, 2013] A plethora of pundits have offered views on the emergence of Justin Trudeau as the next leader of the Liberal Party. Here we will take a more modest approach and focus on what the public opinion trends are telling us. It is probably safe to say that Mr. Trudeau is causing a buzz in media coverage. The mixture includes the gamut from committed sceptics/critics to fawning acolytes, but it is safe to say that media attention to Mr. Trudeau has risen and that arguably the overall tone… [More...]

Shifting Political Prospects for Stephen Harper


[Ottawa – April 12, 2013] Despite the fact that there is no imminent election, speculation about the viability of Stephen Harper’s leadership of the Conservative Party is rising. As we near the midterm we will consider what light the trends in public opinion might shine on this question. So in the absence of anyone having asked us the question, and undoubtedly studied indifference to our conclusions on the part the subject of this analysis, we will proceed.

The first part of our analysis will have nothing to do with the fortunes… [More...]