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[Ottawa – January 16, 2020] It has been a turbulent beginning to 2020. In particular, the heightened tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated dramatically, resulting in the tragic loss of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 and the deaths of 176 people, including 57 Canadians. In the first instalment of a broader poll looking at public outlook on key issues, we will look at the public response to this crisis. [More...] 
[Ottawa – December 17, 2019] Clearly, the Canadian electorate isn’t in a forgiving mood. No matter how they voted in October, overwhelming majorities are happy to see Andrew Scheer exiting the Conservative leader’s office. A scant seven per cent are sorry to him leave, while more than ten times that figure approve of his decision. [More...] 
[Ottawa – December 12, 2019] The political landscape appears to be as frozen as the land as we move into Canadian winter with a deadlocked and deeply divided citizenry. Vote intention hasn’t budged in the past seven weeks, although the Green Party and People’s Party are both doing better than on Election Day. Everyone else is pretty much mired in place. It is notable that the Liberals do better with middle class and university educated voters. Support for both the Liberal and Conservative parties rises with age, while the NDP does better with young voters. [More...] 
[Ottawa – October 20, 2019] In our final poll for the 43rd federal election campaign, we are predicting that the Liberals will capture the most seats on Monday. Given the trends over the past week and the regional patterns, we feel comfortable that the Liberals are going to win with at least a strong minority. However, the distribution of Liberal support is extremely seat-efficient and there is still a strong possibility that the party could eek out a bare majority tomorrow. [More...] 
[Ottawa – October 18, 2019] The 43rd federal election is lurching to the finish line and we still don’t know who the winner(s) will be. The race is statistical tie, with the Conservatives holding the narrowest of leads over the Liberals (32.5 per cent versus 31.0 per cent). The rejuvenated NDP is now stalled at 17.6 points and the Greens having fallen back to 7.9 points. The People’s Party is also fading and now sits at 3.6 per cent. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois have had a renaissance, but that too appears to have stalled and they have fallen out of a tie and are now 10 points behind the Liberals in Quebec at 24 points. [More...] 
[Ottawa – October 16, 2019] The national numbers could not be tighter with the Liberals and Conservatives at 31.2 and 31.8 points, respectively. The NDP has risen, but that rise seems to have plateaued and they now standing at 18.4 points. The Green Party is now at 6.8 per cent and they have seen a lot of their vote cannibalized by the rise in the NDP. At 3.4 per cent, the People’s Party has fallen back somewhat, while the Bloc Québécois is 6.4 per cent nationally, which translates into a statistical tie in Quebec (29 per cent, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals. [More...] 
This online survey was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. [More...] 
[Ottawa – October 11, 2019] We remain in a deadlocked national race, with the Conservatives enjoying a one-point, statistically insignificant lead. Results suggest that there may have been some effects from the debates. The most important finding is the diminution of the Liberal Party’s Ontario lead. The 13-point advantage the Liberals enjoyed in Ontario has sharply eroded since the debate (though there appears to have been a modest recovery in the later part of the polling period). [More...] 
[Ottawa – September 30, 2019] With just three weeks to go until the 43rd federal election, the Liberals and Conservatives find themselves in a statistical tie at 33 and 31 points, respectively. At 13 points, the Green Party has squeezed its way into third place, while the NDP lies just two points behind at 11 points. The People’s Party is at five points and the Bloc Québécois is at three points nationally. [More...] 
[Ottawa – September 23, 2019] The images of Justin Trudeau donning blackface makeup seemed to have had a significant but short-lived impact on the electorate. Just one in four Canadians (28 per cent) think the incident is serious, though this includes 21 per cent who think it is an extremely serious matter. About one in four voters (24 per cent) say it will make them less likely to vote for the Liberal Party on October 21st. [More...] 
The political landscape is now clearly shifting in favour of the Liberals and to the detriment of the Conservatives. The Scheer-led Conservatives have seen their 11-point lead from just a month ago shrink to a narrow 2.7-point lead as of last night. [More...] 
[Ottawa – January 16, 2019] The closing of the General Motors assembly plant in Oshawa has aroused widespread attention, with more than half of Canadians following this development either closely (15 per cent) or somewhat closely (42 per cent). [More...] 
[Ottawa – January 23, 2018] In this unique ‘populism project’ we are conducting with Canadian Press we are trying to gain a better understanding about what many are calling the rise of populism. That term is inadequate to deal with the range of experience and attitudes which are underpinning this movement. A partial list of the closely related concepts relevant to this includes authoritarianism, an ordered versus open outlook, nativism, isolationism, and xenophobia. Questions swirl as to what these forces mean, what is driving them, and how they are distributed in Canada. [More...] 
[Ottawa – December 4, 2017] Canadians are never far removed from a horrific story of gun violence. Whether it is the reports of ever escalating carnage in the United States, or the milder but still deeply concerning incidents in Canada, this problem is seen as blight on modern society. While Canada has only about one-seventh of the deaths per capita from gun violence that the United States endures, it is around the top of the list for other advanced western societies. Interestingly, Canada explored a national long gun registry in the wake of the massacre of… [More...] 
CULTURAL EXPRESSIONS OF THE NEW OUTLOOK Please click here for the full report and data tables. [Ottawa – October 10, 2017] There has been a fair bit of debate about whether the core drivers of the new populism are economic or cultural in nature. This latest version of what we used to call materialism or idealism is an important but unsolvable riddle at this point. Did economic stagnation and despair beget rising xenophobia and nativism or were these cultural expressions really the prime mover. Our sense is that both are equally important but the… [More...] 
SHIFTING PUBLIC OUTLOOK ON THE ECONOMY AND SOCIAL CLASS Please click here for the full report and data tables. [Ottawa – October 10, 2017] Increasingly, the old ideological battles of left versus right are being supplanted by a new contest for the future. As Daniel Bell argued over 50 years ago, the new axis of dispute is more open versus ordered. This harkens back to classic works such as Aural Kolnai’s 1938 The War Against the West and Karl Popper’s The Open Society and Its Enemies. Once again, we are seeing a rise in… [More...] 
TAX PROPOSALS NOT HURTING GOVERNMENT, MAY WELL HELP Commissioned by The Canadian Press [Ottawa – October 3, 2017] The horserace has remained remarkably stable over the summer and the apparent oscillations and movements that one would gather from looking at different polls are not expressed in our research. Indeed, all five parties find themselves within the margin of error of where they were in June. At 34 points, the Liberals are holding steady and are statistically tied with the Conservatives, who are a mere one point behind. At 15 points, the NDP is in a distant third… [More...] 
DEPENDS WHERE YOU LIVE, YOUR SOCIAL CLASS, AND YOUR AGE [Ottawa – June 27, 2017] Housing affordability is a national issue, but it really depends on where you live, how old you are, and your social class. At the national level, a plurality of Canadians say that housing is unaffordable where they live, compared to just one in seven who would rate housing as affordable. Affordability is approaching near crisis levels in Vancouver and Toronto, which are by far the two most unaffordable markets in Canada. The vast majority of respondents in these two markets rate housing as… [More...] 
LESS THAN ONE IN FIVE CANADIANS APPROVE OF DONALD TRUMP [Ottawa – June 25, 2017] The outlook on the Canadian economy remains, in a word, awful. Economists and market watchers may be optimistic about our economic performance, but consumers and workers are decidedly underwhelmed, as the numbers remain locked in historical lows. For starters, only 16 per cent of Canadians feel that they have moved ahead over the last year; this is less than half of the number who feel they have fallen behind (38 per cent). Longer-term progress is no better, with just 21 per cent indicating… [More...] |
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Northern Populism
The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to Massey College at the University of Toronto on November 27, 2019. [More...]