About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Liberals Headed to Form Government

[Ottawa – October 20, 2019] In our final poll for the 43rd federal election campaign, we are predicting that the Liberals will capture the most seats on Monday. Given the trends over the past week and the regional patterns, we feel comfortable that the Liberals are going to win with at least a strong minority. However, the distribution of Liberal support is extremely seat-efficient and there is still a strong possibility that the party could eek out a bare majority tomorrow. [More...]

And the Winner Is… We Still Don’t Know

[Ottawa – October 18, 2019] The 43rd federal election is lurching to the finish line and we still don’t know who the winner(s) will be. The race is statistical tie, with the Conservatives holding the narrowest of leads over the Liberals (32.5 per cent versus 31.0 per cent). The rejuvenated NDP is now stalled at 17.6 points and the Greens having fallen back to 7.9 points. The People’s Party is also fading and now sits at 3.6 per cent. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois have had a renaissance, but that too appears to have stalled and they have fallen out of a tie and are now 10 points behind the Liberals in Quebec at 24 points. [More...]

Deadlocked National Race Obscures Seat Advantage for Liberals

[Ottawa – October 16, 2019] The national numbers could not be tighter with the Liberals and Conservatives at 31.2 and 31.8 points, respectively. The NDP has risen, but that rise seems to have plateaued and they now standing at 18.4 points. The Green Party is now at 6.8 per cent and they have seen a lot of their vote cannibalized by the rise in the NDP. At 3.4 per cent, the People’s Party has fallen back somewhat, while the Bloc Québécois is 6.4 per cent nationally, which translates into a statistical tie in Quebec (29 per cent, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals. [More...]

National Race Remains Deadlocked

[Ottawa – October 11, 2019] We remain in a deadlocked national race, with the Conservatives enjoying a one-point, statistically insignificant lead. Results suggest that there may have been some effects from the debates. The most important finding is the diminution of the Liberal Party’s Ontario lead. The 13-point advantage the Liberals enjoyed in Ontario has sharply eroded since the debate (though there appears to have been a modest recovery in the later part of the polling period). [More...]

Tight National Race with Evidence of Further Volatility

[Ottawa – September 30, 2019] With just three weeks to go until the 43rd federal election, the Liberals and Conservatives find themselves in a statistical tie at 33 and 31 points, respectively. At 13 points, the Green Party has squeezed its way into third place, while the NDP lies just two points behind at 11 points. The People’s Party is at five points and the Bloc Québécois is at three points nationally. [More...]

Initially Severe Impact of Blackface Fades, Suggesting Unsettled and Volatile Electorate

[Ottawa – September 23, 2019] The images of Justin Trudeau donning blackface makeup seemed to have had a significant but short-lived impact on the electorate. Just one in four Canadians (28 per cent) think the incident is serious, though this includes 21 per cent who think it is an extremely serious matter. About one in four voters (24 per cent) say it will make them less likely to vote for the Liberal Party on October 21st. [More...]

EKOS Poll Results: July-August 2019

Below is a summary of the survey results that EKOS has released via Twitter from July to August 2019. The tables below include full regional and demographic breakdowns, as well as methodological statements. [More...]

Conservative Fortunes Waning as Liberal Fortunes Rise in Nearly Deadlocked Race

The political landscape is now clearly shifting in favour of the Liberals and to the detriment of the Conservatives. The Scheer-led Conservatives have seen their 11-point lead from just a month ago shrink to a narrow 2.7-point lead as of last night. [More...]

Political Landscape Deadlocked

TAX PROPOSALS NOT HURTING GOVERNMENT, MAY WELL HELP

Commissioned by The Canadian Press

[Ottawa – October 3, 2017] The horserace has remained remarkably stable over the summer and the apparent oscillations and movements that one would gather from looking at different polls are not expressed in our research. Indeed, all five parties find themselves within the margin of error of where they were in June. At 34 points, the Liberals are holding steady and are statistically tied with the Conservatives, who are a mere one point behind. At 15 points, the NDP is in a distant third… [More...]

Canada 150: The National Mood and the New Populism

Gauging the national mood at Canada 150 in a carefully constructed sample of nearly 6,000 Canadians, this piece assesses how Canada is looking at its political options and how this connects to its economic outlook and a variety of other new forces.

[Ottawa – June 24, 2017] The voter landscape doesn’t mean much as we are still two years away from an election; but it does reveal some interesting new features. Most notably, we see a tightened race with the Conservatives enjoying a post-leadership bounce from the election of Andrew Scheer. The Liberals maintain a slight… [More...]

Canadians Respond to Surprising Victory of Donald Trump

LARGELY NEGATIVE REACTIONS, BUT CONSERVATIVES MAY BE SEEING A ‘TRUMP BUMP’

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – November 25, 2016] As the dust settles on the rather unlikely victory of Donald Trump to the highest office in the world, Canadians are trying to make sense of what this new normal will mean for them, the country, and the world. They are also trying to grasp the best route forward for the federal government with a very different U.S. regime than expected. There is considerable anxiety about these issues but there is also some surprising resonance in some places.… [More...]

One Year Out: Where Do Canadians Stand?

GOVERNMENT IS BACK

[Ottawa – October 24, 2016] The Liberals continue to defy the laws of political gravity. With the party at a staggering 47 points, the protracted honeymoon clearly signals something deeper than mere regime change. At 26 points, the Conservatives are still very much hanging around. While this may not seem terribly impressive on the surface, they retain a solid base, which is especially impressive given that they are operating under an interim leader. The NDP, however, looks to be in deep trouble – they have gone from clear contenders for government to being on the… [More...]

Political Landscape Stable as Canadians Enjoy the Summer Weather

[Ottawa – July 21, 2016] Canada’s political landscape appears locked in place as Canadians begin turning their attention to their cabins and barbeques. The Liberals are holding steady at 46 points, territory they have enjoyed for six consecutive polls stretching back to December. These results represent an interesting contrast to the Conservatives who, according to our polls, broke the 40-point mark only twice in their nearly ten years in office (once in 2008 and again in 2009). The NDP, which earlier this year seemed in danger of falling into fourth place behind the Green… [More...]

Bold is Back

HARPER AND MULCAIR NOT

[Ottawa – June 14, 2016] The purpose of this report is to provide a retrospective on how citizens are scoring the parties and leaders after the first session of Parliament.

It has been nearly eight months since Canadians handed the Trudeau-led Liberals a majority government and yet the party continues to soar. At nearly 45 points, the party is showing no signs of waning. These numbers represent a truly breathtaking transformation from the political landscape just one year ago when the Liberals seemed to be headed to another third-place finish. They have… [More...]

Liberals Still Feeling the Love, NDP not so Much

[Ottawa – April 18, 2016] The Liberals remain at stratospheric levels. The dip we saw in our last poll may be receding and the party is going strong at 44 points. The Conservatives are fairly stable, but at 29 points, they are well back of the Liberals. At 12 points, the NDP sits in a distant third place.

What is remarkable is the uniformity of the Liberal Party’s support across various demographics. Liberal support is consistent across all gender and age cohorts. These results are dramatically different from the fractured landscape that we saw… [More...]

Thomas Mulcair Faces Uncertain Future as NDP Languishes

LIBERALS STRONG, BUT FALLING BACK TO EARTH

[Ottawa – March 31, 2016] Looking at vote intention polls three and half years from an election is like having a fling; amusing, but doesn’t mean much. There are, however, some striking features relevant to the upcoming political calendar.

For the most part, the latest poll resembles the election outcome. Yes, the Liberals are up almost three points from October 19th, but they seem to be coming to Earth after enjoying a stratospheric lead. The Conservatives are basically stuck at their 2015 election result, although they are up somewhat… [More...]

Justinphilia Continues Despite Deep Anxieties about the Economy

[Ottawa – January 26, 2016] In a new poll, we find the new government enjoying a remarkable and almost unprecedented level of support from the Canadian public. This is even more impressive when we consider the backdrop of continued gloom about the economy with less than one in five feeling the economy is growing. It is clear that the public are extending some patience to the new government in this ocean of goodwill. We will also show that amidst this otherwise unremittingly dark economic outlook, there is a significant spike in medium term optimism. The public will see… [More...]

National Mood Soars as Direction of Federal Government Hits Highest Levels since 2001

TRUDEAUMANIA 2.0?

[Ottawa – December 11, 2015] A year end check up on the national reception to the new Liberal government is producing nothing short of a dramatic reversal of years of torpor and division about the federal government. Confidence in the country has shot up almost 20 points to 61 per cent positive since the last read when the Harper government was sitting. More significantly, confidence in the direction of the federal government is almost as high as national direction at 58 per cent and this is the highest score for federal direction since 2001. For a… [More...]

Deadlock Broken, Liberals Surging

SENIORS MOVE BACK TO LIBERALS IN A BIG WAY

[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] In a major development, the weekend reveals a late but clear movement to the Liberals. At 36 points, the Liberals have a four-point lead over the Conservatives and are now poised to recapture power after nearly a decade in the political wilderness. This movement is rooted in a shift of the critical seniors’ cohort and a strengthening of their lead in Ontario. It may well be that Hurricane Hazel was a key force in both of these movements.

Penultimate Check-Up on Election 42

LIBERALS OPENING UP DAYLIGHT?

[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] With less than 24 hours to go until the polls open, it appears as though vote intentions are relatively fixed, although the Liberals may be opening up a bit of headroom. At 34.3 points, the Liberals hold a statistically insignificant lead over the Conservatives, who are at 32.6 per cent. The NDP is at 21 points and there are no signs of any last minute shifts.

Quebec has transitioned into an unclear four-way race. With just a seven-point spread separating the NDP, the Bloc, the Liberals, and… [More...]