About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

UCP Headed for Victory in Close Race in Alberta

[Ottawa – May 26] As Albertans head to the polls on Monday, the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) led by premier Danielle Smith looks poised for re-election, but it will be a close race. A new EKOS poll suggests that half (50.4%) of the Alberta electorate will back the UCP in the election, three-points ahead (47.3%) of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), led by former premier Rachel Notley. The remaining 3.1% of voters plan casting their ballots for other parties. It will be a two-horse race, with none of the minor parties expected to win any seats. [More...]

Quebec Election 2022: CAQ in Cruise Control for Second Mandate

[OTTAWA – September 27, 2022] – The Coalition Avenir Quebec has a fourteen-point lead over Quebec Solidaire as the Quebec election heads into its final stages, a new EKOS Research poll has found. [More...]

Tories on the cusp of a majority government in New Brunswick

[Ottawa – September 12, 2020] New Brunswick’s governing Progressive Conservative Party are poised to come out on top in Monday’s provincial election. The question remains whether it will be a majority or a minority. The Tories, led by Premier Blaine Higgs are tied with the opposition Liberals at 32 points each, but thanks to having a better vote efficiency, are likely to win the most seats. In the last election in 2018, the Tories won one more seat than the Liberals (22 to 21) despite losing the popular vote by six points. The Tories are now polling at the same… [More...]

Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba

[Ottawa – September 2, 2020] The Progressive Conservative lead over the NDP in Manitoba has shrunk to 13 points, with the PCs now ahead 44-31.The Liberals remain in third place with 12 points and the Greens are now at nine points. This is a one point gain for the governing Tories from the 43% share in our last poll in July and a four point gain for the opposition New Democrats. From the 2019 election, the Tories are down three points from 47%, while the NDP mark is the same as the 31% they won in the… [More...]

Over half of voters now support NDP in BC

[Ottawa – September 1, 2020] The NDP now has the support of over half of British Columbians, perhaps their strongest poll result in recent memory. Their lead over the provincial Liberals is now at 26 points (51-25). The Greens remain in third at 14 points among decided voters, while 11% support other parties. One-in-six voters (16%) remain undecided. Our recent polling in other provinces show large leads for governing parties, thanks in part to their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The NDP is no exception, even though they lead a minority government with support in confidence votes from the Green… [More...]

Saskatchewan Party widens large lead over NDP

[Ottawa – August 31, 2020] The Saskatchewan Party has widened its lead over the opposition New Democrats to 32 points, and now have the support of over twice as many decided voters, as they lead the NDP 60-28. The remaining 12% support another party. These numbers are good news for the governing Saskatchewan Party just two months ahead of a planned election in October. Still, nearly a quarter of voters (24%) remain undecided.

Compared to our last poll conducted in June and early July, the Saskatchewan Party has gone up three points from 57%, while the NDP is… [More...]

CAQ continues to have huge lead in Quebec

[Ottawa – August 28, 2020] Quebec’s governing party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) continues to enjoys a huge lead over the opposition Liberals, with nearly six-in-ten (57%) still backing the right-of-centre party. The CAQ, led by premier François Legault has a 40-point lead over the Liberals, the same margin as in our last poll conducted at the beginning of summer. The Liberals are in a distant second place at 17 points. The Parti Québécois (PQ) is in third place at 11 points and the left-wing Quebec solidaire is at nine points. Six percent of decided voters support other parties. Both… [More...]

Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba

[Ottawa – July 24, 2020] The governing Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba enjoys a 16-point lead over the opposition New Democrats, leading them 43-27. The Liberals are in third place with 18 points and the Greens have seven points. For both the Tories and the NDP, this is represents a four point drop from their 2019 result where the PCs won 47% of the vote, and the New Democrats won 31%. The Liberals are up four points from 14% and the Greens are up one point from the 6% they won in last year’s election. The remaining 5% would vote… [More...]

New Democrats have healthy lead over Liberals in BC

[Ottawa – July 17, 2020] The NDP has a healthy 17-point lead over the Liberals in British Columbia (46 to 29), with the Greens in a distant third at 13 points among decided voters. A further 12% support other parties. One-in-five voters (19%) remain undecided. The NDP currently runs the province in a minority government with support in confidence votes from the Green Party, while the “pro free-enterprise” Liberal Party has the most seats, but is in opposition.

The NDP is up six points from the 40% they won in the 2017 election. The Liberals, with their new leader Andrew Wilkinson… [More...]

Saskatchewan Party with strong lead; Many remain undecided

[Ottawa – July 10, 2020] The Saskatchewan Party, which has been in power in Saskatchewan since 2007, remains popular across the province. They have a 25-point lead over the opposition New Democrats, leading the NDP 57% to 32%. However among all voters, this lead is cut down to 43% to 24%, as nearly one-quarter of voters (23%) are undecided. A further nine percent of voters (12% of decided voters) would vote for another party.

For the Saskatchewan Party, winning 57% of the vote would represent a 5 point drop from the 2016 election, when they won 62% of the vote under… [More...]

CAQ Holds Massive Lead in Quebec

[Ottawa – July 3, 2020] Quebec’s governing party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) enjoys a huge lead over the opposition Liberals. Nearly six out of ten (59%) decided voters in the province say they would vote for the CAQ, led by premier François Legault. The CAQ enjoys an unprecedented 40-point lead over the Liberals, who are in a distant second place at 19 points. There appears to be no honeymoon period for the Liberals and their new leader Dominique Anglade, who was acclaimed to the leadership of the party in May. Meanwhile, Quebec solidaire and the Parti Québécois (PQ) are in a statistical tie for third place at 9 and 8 points respectively. The PQ is currently under the interim leadership of Pascal Bérubé until they elect a new leader in August. For the CAQ, this represents a large boost in their support from the 2018 election, which saw them win 37% of the vote en route to a majority government. The remaining three parties have dropped since the 2018 election. The Liberals are down six points from the 25% they won in 2018, the PQ is down nine points and Quebec solidaire is down seven points. [More...]

Ontarians Side with Teacher Unions

The leaderless Ontario Liberal Party has now opened up a significant lead over the Doug Ford-led Progressive Conservative Party. The Liberals and the PCs are both up from December, while the Official Opposition NDP has been declining. The Green Party is holding steady at a respectable nine per cent but, as we have seen in the past, much of this does not translate into votes on Election Day. [More...]

Rachel Notley Closing Gap on Jason Kenney

[Ottawa – March 31, 2019] With just over two weeks to go until Albertans head to the polls, incumbent Premier Rachel Notley is becoming more competitive. She has improved on some measures in the past couple of weeks, while Jason Kenny has gone down somewhat. Most notably, about half of Albertans (46 per cent) now say the province in headed in the right direction, up five points since February. Furthermore, Rachel Notley is narrowly seen as the best Premier for the province. [More...]

EKOS Predicts PC Majority

[Ottawa – June 6, 2018] In what has been a wild ride, the electorate are converging on a judgement that will see Doug Ford leading a comfortable majority for the next four years in Queen’s Park.

The campaign has been highly dynamic and the final results bear little resemblance to the results going into the election. The NDP has seen a profound improvement in their fortunes and jumped from 21 points just two months ago to 41 points just around the time of the final debate. Since then, however, they have fallen back and their four-point lead has turned into a four-point deficit. The Liberal Party, meanwhile, is suffering catastrophic losses, although they have staunched the bleeding in the last week of the campaign. [More...]

Without Significant Changes, Doug Ford on Track for Majority Government

[Ottawa – June 1, 2018] As we enter the final week of the campaign, the Ontario NDP have started falling back, while the Ford-led Progressive Conservatives have opened up a clear, four-point lead. The Liberals are stuck at 19 points with no plausible path to victory. [More...]

Race Deadlocked

With just eight days until Election Day, the NDP finds itself locked into a statistical tie with the Progressive Conservatives. While the NDP enjoys a half-point lead over the PCs, the underlying regional patterns suggest that the PCs hold a significant advantage in terms of seat efficiency. Indeed, if these numbers hold, we will almost certainly be looking at some form of PC government on June 7th. The Liberals, meanwhile, have been stuck below 20 points for some time now. [More...]

A Volatile Electorate Producing a Newly-Tied Race

[Ottawa – May 25, 2018] With just 13 days until Ontarians cast their ballots, the NDP has seen a significant shift and now holds a statistically insignificant lead over the PCs in what is becoming a highly volatile race. Meanwhile, at just 20 points, the Liberals are being squeezed out of what has morphed into a two-way race and it appears that their 15-year reign may be drawing to a close. [More...]

PCs Hold Solid Lead, but Momentum Favours NDP

[Ottawa – May 22, 2018] With barely two weeks to go until Ontarians hit the polls, the NDP are picking up momentum with both the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals falling back modestly. If these numbers were to apply to the election, they would almost certainly produce a PC majority. However, the upward momentum for the NDP and the decline of the Liberals bring in the clear possibility of other outcomes. [More...]

Ontario PCs Enjoy Clear Lead

[Ottawa – April 6, 2018] Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have a clear lead which would produce a majority it there were to be an election tomorrow. However, current polling does not provide the basis for a comfortable forecast of the next Ontario election; there isn’t an election tomorrow and the Ontario Liberals have shown surprising resilience in the last three provincial elections. [More...]

British Columbians Providing Tepid Mandate for NDP-Green Partnership

[Ottawa – June 29, 2017] With the announcement that the Green Party of British Columbia would provide support to an NDP minority government, we asked British Columbians what they thought of this partnership. With 43 per cent of BC residents supporting this agreement, the mandate for this deal is quite tepid. Nevertheless, of those who have an opinion, the lean is to give this partnership a try.

While we did not ask provincial vote intention in this survey, we can look at how support for the NDP-Green partnership varies by federal party support. Support is –… [More...]