About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

EKOS Seat Projection

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.

[Ottawa – June 1, 2022] It’s that time again, it’s election day! And as we did in the last Ontario election, we are going to be bold and once again do a seat-by-seat prediction of today’s provincial election in Ontario. After crunching the numbers, it looks clear that the Progressive Conservatives will win a majority government. They have a narrow lead in the popular vote and, thanks to a beneficial vote distribution, will in all likelihood win a large majority of the seats. [More...]

EKOS 2021 Seat Projection

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.
[Ottawa – September 20, 2021] Our final projected seat tallies are as follows:

LPC

CPC

NDP

BQ

GP

PPC

OTHER

164

113

27

31

3

0

0

Liberals Headed to Form Government

[Ottawa – September 19, 2019] In our final poll for the 44th federal election campaign, we are predicting that the Liberals will capture the most seats on Monday. Given the trends over the past week and the regional patterns, we feel comfortable that the Liberals are going to win with a minority of seats, though it is unclear whether this will be a strengthened or diminished minority. Given the seat-efficient distribution of Liberal support, combined with recent movements in Ontario, the party has a plausible path to a majority, though a minority is still the most likely outcome. [More...]

EKOS 2019 Seat Projection

[Ottawa – October 21, 2019] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with more than 100,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates. [More...]

Liberals Headed to Form Government

[Ottawa – October 20, 2019] In our final poll for the 43rd federal election campaign, we are predicting that the Liberals will capture the most seats on Monday. Given the trends over the past week and the regional patterns, we feel comfortable that the Liberals are going to win with at least a strong minority. However, the distribution of Liberal support is extremely seat-efficient and there is still a strong possibility that the party could eek out a bare majority tomorrow. [More...]

EKOS Seat Projection

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.
[Ottawa – June 7, 2018] It’s that time again, it’s election day! And as we did in the last federal election, we are going to be bold and once again do a seat by seat prediction of today’s provincial election in Ontario. In our 2011 we got more seats correct than any publicly available projection model or prediction, and we are hoping to replicate that again for this election. However, predicting elections is often a fool’s game and if polling is wildly off, we will be too. [More...]

EKOS Seat Projection

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn and Graham Pressey, who were the principal investigators in creating this seat forecast.

[Ottawa – October 19, 2015] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with the nearly 130,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates.

Before… [More...]

OUR FINAL WORDS AND A FEW MORE NUMBERS – May 1, 2011

EKOS SEAT PROJECTION

“Prediction is very hard, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra

These seat projections are based on EKOS’ opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional, and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

[OTTAWA – May 1, 2011] As we conclude Campaign 41 and await the public judgement, a few final comments are in order. Despite a bewildering array of contradictory evidence from the earlier polls it now appears that what was previously thought unimaginable has… [More...]

FROM ORANGE CRUSH TO RED CRUSHED: NEW ONTARIO VOTE SPLITTING FAVOURS CONSERVATIVES – April 29, 2011

EKOS SEAT PROJECTION

From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional, and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

[OTTAWA – April 29, 2011] In an interesting development, as the Conservative Party’s overall margin over the NDP has shrunk to a mere five points, the newfound parity of the NDP and Liberal Party in Ontario appears to have produced significant benefits in terms of seat returns. So while the Conservatives… [More...]

EKOS Seat Projection – April 28, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 28, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_28_2011

THE NEW REALLY BIG QUESTION – April 27, 2011

[Ottawa – April 27, 2011] – We update our seat projections based on our new three-day sample of nearly 3,000 potential voters. It continues to show a breathtakingly different Parliament in which the Conservative government is reduced to 131 seats but the muscular new NDP have 92 and the Liberals have 63. This new political math would produce a Parliament where the non-Bloc opposition would have 155 seats, a bare majority and 24 more seats than the Conservatives. With a clear advantage on popular vote and seats, what would happen? Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has stated that he requires a… [More...]

EKOS Seat Projection – April 26, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 26, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Seat forecast methodologies work pretty well, at least the ones we’ve been using. We’ve qualitatively come very close to the actual outcomes in the past four election — including an estimate of 125 seats for the Conservatives in 2006, which was exactly right. So the models work well. But we are into… [More...]

EKOS Seat Projection – April 25, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 25, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Looking at these seat projections, the NDP and the Liberal Party combined would have a majority and 31 more seats than the Conservatives (as well as nearly 20 more points in popular vote). Indeed, It is hard to imagine how these totals would not produce the once unimaginable outcome of a Jack… [More...]

Seat Projection – April 21, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 21, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Over the next few days, the electorate are going to start scrutinising the brave new political world they have tentatively created. There are profound strategic implications based on these new patterns of support and our data and analysis can provide some hints as to where the electorate might decide to go (and… [More...]

EKOS SEAT PROJECTIONS – April 19, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 19, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

It is remarkable how similar these seat projections are to the current composition of Parliament. While the Liberals are poised to lose several seats to the NDP (mostly in Quebec), the Conservative and Bloc numbers are relatively stable.

It is interesting to note the voter inefficiency of the NDP vote in… [More...]

EKOS SEAT PROJECTIONS – April 15, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 15, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_15_2011

EKOS Seat Projection – April 11, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 11, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_11_2011

EKOS Seat Projection – April 1, 2011

[OTTAWA – March 28, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_1_2011

EKOS SEAT PROJECTION – March 28, 2011

[OTTAWA – March 28, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_march_28

EKOS SEAT PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS: DOES THIS LOOK FAMILIAR? – March 14, 2011

[OTTAWA – March 14, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Below are the seat projections polling data collected from February 24th to March 8th. As you can see from the above the mere 7-point lead belies a pretty formidable advantage for the Conservative Party. The key is Ontario where the Conservatives would see the rewards of a newfound but fairly stable lead… [More...]