About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

The Coming Transformation: Open or Ordered?

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to The Recovery Summit on September 17, 2020. [More...]

Ordered Populism and Implications for the 2020 Presidential Election

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to The Pollsters’ Survival Kit In The World of Trump, hosted by ESOMAR and the Canadian Research Insights Council on August 20, 2020. [More...]

Northern Populism

This paper examines the issue of whether or not authoritarian populism — or what we prefer to label ordered populism — is a force in Canada. There is clear evidence in the international literature that this force has been a critical factor in explaining the rise of Donald Trump in America, Brexit in the United Kingdom and similar examples in other advanced Western democracies. The paper attempts to clarify the key concepts under discussion based on a cursory review of the recent and historical literature. Using this literature, we identify the key forces that seem to be linked to the emergence of ordered populism in other societies. These include economic stagnation and the rising concentration of wealth at the top of the social system, a magnified sense of external risk, a cultural backlash against the loss of core values for those embracing this outlook, and a wide sense of normative tension that the broadest direction of society is moving in the wrong direction. [More...]

Northern Populism

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to Massey College at the University of Toronto on November 27, 2019. [More...]

A Technical Note on Our Final Seat Forecast

[Ottawa – October 23, 2019] Our final seat forecast was extremely accurate; however, our final four-day roll was somewhat off. In this brief addendum, we wish to explain that contradiction. [More...]

A Brief Post-Mortem on Election 43

[Ottawa – October 20, 2019] After an exciting campaign, the 43rd Canadian general election has come to a close. We at EKOS believe we did a very good job in charting the direction in one of the tightest campaigns in recent memory. In the end, we correctly predicted that the Liberals would retain power (we noted that a minority government was the most probable scenario), although we acknowledge that our final estimate of the Conservative Party’s support fell slightly outside the margin of error. This was largely due to a sampling error in our final week of polling (more on this below). [More...]

The New Populism: Values, Economics, and Democracy

This presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy on October 24, 2018. [More...]

VIDEO: Canada’s Political Divides

Does Canada run the risk of a populist revolt? Frank Graves appears on The Agenda with Steve Paikin to discuss the country’s deepening ideological divides. [More...]

North America at the Crossroads

Inward or Outward?

By Frank Graves

This article was published in the September-October 2017 issue of Policy Magazine.

[Ottawa – September 1, 2017] Attitudes to trade wax and wane as the issue fades in and out of political discourse. We have now entered a moment where debates about trade are occupying centre stage in the political arena.

Attitudes to trade aren’t simply about how to create a more prosperous economy: they also reflect broader cultural orientations to the external world, groups from different racial origins, and attitudes to issues such as climate change. At no moment… [More...]

Pick Up the Phone – Pollsters Know What They’re Doing

[Ottawa – April 25, 2017] The election of Donald Trump last November shocked most observers of U.S. politics. The major consensus predictions favoured a Clinton victory by an overwhelming margin. Heading into election night, The New York Times pegged the odds of a Clinton victory at 85%. Others published similarly high odds for a Clinton win, including: FiveThirtyEight.com (71% chance), Huffington Post (98% chance), PredictWise (89% chance), the Princeton Election Consortium (99% chance), and Daily Kos (92% chance).

In hindsight, these predictions, in their overwhelming certainty, seemed more like science fiction than scientific probabilities. How could the overwhelming consensus drawn from so many have gotten it so wrong? Coming from the same species that once thought the earth was flat and that parachute pants were stylish, we really shouldn’t be so surprised. But more importantly: WHO DO WE BLAME? [More...]

Canada 150: The End of Progress?

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Queen’s Policy Review on April 27, 2017.

To celebrate the upcoming Canadian Sesquicentennial, the Editorial Board of the Queen’s Policy Review (QPR) hosted a special policy conference to discuss pressing policy issues that have, and will shape, Canada’s present and future. Both the conference and subsequent publication were focused on the following two questions:

  • ‘What are the policy challenges that have shaped and continue to impact the Canada of today?’
  • ‘What are the emerging challenges facing public policy in Canada

Understanding the Shifting Meaning of the Middle Class

MARCH 2017

This report represents a synthesis of public opinion findings from EKOS and others to help understand Canadians’ attitudes regarding what it means to be middle class today.

This report was prepared for the Privy Council Office, and follows a review of the academic literature which looks at the evolving forces shaping the middle class from an economic and sociological perspective.

The views expressed in this report are those of EKOS Research Associates, Inc., and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Canada.

Click here for… [More...]

Citizenology: Towards a New Vision of Public Opinion Research

Frank Graves speaks to the Community of Practice for Public Opinion Research on January 17, 2017. [More...]

Pollocalypse? Not Again

In the wake of Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory, pollsters are again taking a beating for getting it wrong. In the Brexit referendum, the last U.K. election and recent Canadian elections, both federal and provincial, pollsters have been blamed for getting it wrong. EKOS President Frank Graves offers this explanation for what happened with the polls in the US election campaign. [More...]

Canadians Respond to Surprising Victory of Donald Trump


By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – November 25, 2016] As the dust settles on the rather unlikely victory of Donald Trump to the highest office in the world, Canadians are trying to make sense of what this new normal will mean for them, the country, and the world. They are also trying to grasp the best route forward for the federal government with a very different U.S. regime than expected. There is considerable anxiety about these issues but there is also some surprising resonance in some places.… [More...]

The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform

Frank Graves speaks at #ERRE, a conference on electoral reform at the University of Ottawa on November 3, 2016. [More...]

The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform and Democratic Renewal


By Frank Graves

This article was published in the November-December 2016 issue of Policy Magazine.

[Ottawa – November 1, 2016] The issue of electoral reform is of great importance to citizens. The issue does not produce the same visceral immediacy as debates about health care, climate change, and economic stagnation. It does, however, find its roots in deep historical shifts in the relationships between citizens and their governments.

We are going to try and distil the public preferences for moving forward on these issues. There… [More...]

The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform

What do Canadians want?

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Special Committee on Electoral Reform on October 20, 2016.

Please click here for a PDF copy of this presentation.

Veuillez cliquer ici pour la version française.

A video of this presentation (as well as the Q&A period) can be found here.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire used to conduct this survey.

Please click here for the data tables for this survey.

Shifting Public Outlook


The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the 2016 Queen’s International Institute on Social Policy held from August 22-24, 2016 in Kingston, Ontario.

The conference was hosted by the Queen’s University School of Policy Studies:

“Canada has entered a new period of social policy interest at both the federal and provincial levels, with significant resources committed to social policy renewal. Given this new phase of policy action, it is time to stand back and reflect on the changes underway in Canadian society, the priority challenges facing us, and our capacity to develop… [More...]

VIDEO: Is Security a Priority for Canadians?

Evan Solomon speaks with Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates, about where security issues rank among voter issues.