Tight National Race with Evidence of Further Volatility

LIBERALS’ ONTARIO LEAD PERSISTS

[Ottawa – September 30, 2019] With just three weeks to go until the 43rd federal election, the Liberals and Conservatives find themselves in a statistical tie at 33 and 31 points, respectively. At 13 points, the Green Party has squeezed its way into third place, while the NDP lies just two points behind at 11 points. The People’s Party is at five points and the Bloc Québécois is at three points nationally.

The most notable regional effects are the Liberals’ leads in Ontario and Quebec and the huge – but seat inefficient – leads for the Conservative Party in Saskatchewan and Alberta. British Columbia remains highly unsettled with all four major parties sitting within six points of each other. Atlantic Canada is unclear and, while the Liberals retain their lead here, they are highly unlikely to achieve the sweep they enjoyed in 2015. The Green Party continues to do well, particularly in British Columbia, but also in Quebec where they are tied for second and the Atlantic where they appear to be competitive.

While both parties find themselves 20 points shy of the lead, the NDP and Green Party lead on second choice so the potential for further movements exists. Conservative supporters are – by far – the most likely to say they have no second choice; this is a reasonable proxy for voter engagement and possibly turnout.

Methodology:

This study involved a blended sample collected using two separate methodologies: Computer Assisted Live Interviews (CATI) and EKOS’ proprietary High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are September 26-29, 2019. In total, a random sample of 1,492 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Please click here for the full report.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.